CHAOTIC FORECASTING OF DISCHARGE TIME SERIES: A CASE STUDY
This paper considers the problem of forecasting the discharge time series of a river by means of a chaotic approach. To this aim, we first check for some evidence of chaotic behavior in the dynamic by considering a set of different procedures, namely, the phase portrait of the attractor, the correla...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of the American Water Resources Association 2001-04, Vol.37 (2), p.271-279 |
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| container_title | Journal of the American Water Resources Association |
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| creator | Lisi, Francesco Villi, Vigilio |
| description | This paper considers the problem of forecasting the discharge time series of a river by means of a chaotic approach. To this aim, we first check for some evidence of chaotic behavior in the dynamic by considering a set of different procedures, namely, the phase portrait of the attractor, the correlation dimension, and the largest Lyapunov exponent. Their joint application seems to confirm the presence of a nonlinear deterministic dynamic of chaotic type. Second, we consider the so-called nearest neighbors predictor and we compare it with a classical linear model. By comparing these two predictors, it seems that nonlinear river flow modeling, and in particular chaotic modeling, is an effective method to improve predictions. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2001.tb00967.x |
| format | Article |
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| language | eng |
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| source | Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete |
| subjects | chaos Chaos theory Correlation Dimensions Discharge Dynamics Earth sciences Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology Forecasting Hydrology Hydrology. Hydrogeology Mathematical models nonlinear prediction Resources River flow Rivers time series |
| title | CHAOTIC FORECASTING OF DISCHARGE TIME SERIES: A CASE STUDY |
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