Evaluating the influence of different environmental water allocation schemes on the water level of a typical shallow lake in semiarid regions: From the perspective of an integrated modeling approach

Many lakes in semiarid regions around the world rely on environmental water allocation to maintain the health of the lake ecosystem. However, under changing environments, the competition for water resources between human society and natural ecosystems has intensified. How to manage environmental water allocation more reasonably and precisely has become an important issue. The largest lake on the North China Plain, Baiyangdian Lake (BYDL), is a typical lake facing such challenges. To provide feasible strategies for sustainable water allocation to BYDL, with the proper parameterization of hydrological processes, this study developed a 10-day temporal scale lake water level prediction model to quantify how environmental water allocation regulates the BYDL water level under different hydroclimatic conditions. Evaluation of model performance revealed that environmental water allocation rather than natural climatic periodicity dominates the variation in the BYDL water level. The model structure could be further improved with consideration of more detailed observations of both the surface runoff entering BYDL and the water area beneath the canopy of the reeds in BYDL. Analysis of 72 model simulation scenarios indicated that water allocations from multiple sources are indispensable and that the water resources that guarantee maintaining the BYDL water level within the ecologically suitable range vary substantially under different hydroclimatic conditions. More elaborate allocation plans are required both to improve the water quality and health of the aquatic ecosystem of BYDL and to reduce the risk of flooding. The findings from this study are valuable for guiding the implementation of environmental water allocations to lakes in semiarid regions worldwide. •Effects of environmental water allocation on Baiyangdian Lake water level assessed.•A 10-day temporal scale lake water balance model was developed for the evaluation.•Environmental water allocation dominates the variation in the lake water level.•The amount of environmental water needed varies notably under different conditions.•More elaborate allocation plans considering routes, timing and quantity are needed.