Development and application of an analytical framework for mapping probable illegal dumping sites using nighttime light imagery and various remote sensing indices

•An analytical framework is developed to detect probable illegal dump sites (IDSs)•An IDS probability map is produced at a 31,285 km2 site in rural and remote regions.•Populated areas represented by nighttime light is a priori of IDS.•Among all classes, highway length is the most decisive factor on IDS probability.•Vulnerability of the inhabitants on reserve lands was assessed in 3 sample regions. Illegal dump sites (IDS) pose significant risks to human and the environment and are a pressing issue worldwide. Due to their secretive nature, the detection of IDS is costly and ineffective. In this study, an analytical framework was developed to detect probable IDSs in rural and remote areas using nighttime light (NTL) as a proxy for populated areas. An IDS probability map is produced by aggregation of Landsat-8 and Suomi NPP satellite imagery, multiple-criteria decision-making analysis, and classification tools. Six variables are considered, including modified soil adjusted index, land surface temperature, NTL, highway length, railway length, and the number of landfills. Vulnerability of the inhabitants on reserve lands was assessed using three sample regions. The method appears effective in reducing potential IDSs. Only about 7% of the 31,285 km2 study area are identified as probable IDS, being classified as “very high” and “high”. Landfills without permit are found more effective in lowering IDS occurrence. Spatial distributions of reserve lands and the maturity of highways network nearby may be more important than the length of railways when assessing the inhabitant vulnerability due to IDS. Highway length is the most decisive factor on IDS probability among all classes, with membership grades ranging from 0.99 to 0.55. Land surface temperature appears less effective for the identification of smaller scale IDS. NTL is more prominent on IDS probability in the “very high” class, with a membership grade of 0.80. The finding suggests that populated areas represented by NTL is a priori of IDS.