Development of techno-economic models for assessment of solvent-based bitumen extraction technology

•Process models were developed for solvent-based in situ bitumen extraction.•A techno-economic assessment of the solvent-based technology was performed.•The supply cost of solvent-based dilbit is in the range of 48.2–63.7C$/bbl.•Solvent loss significantly impacts the supply cost of dilbit.•The scale factor for the capital cost of the solvent-based technology is 0.72. Solvent-based technology has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and water use. However, evaluations of the techno-economic feasibility of solvent-based technology are scarce. In this study, a techno-economic model was developed for the solvent-based process with a plant capacity of 25,000 barrels per day. Propane and butane were used as solvents for deep and shallow reservoirs, respectively. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were conducted to determine how the supply cost of solvent-based bitumen with diluent (or dilbit) is affected by input parameters. The results show that the supply cost of solvent-based dilbit is in the range of 48.2–63.7C$/bbl for deep reservoirs using propane. The supply cost increased by 28% using butane in the shallow reservoir. Solvent loss in the reservoir is the most sensitive input, making up 76.1% of the total variability in the supply cost. Solvent recovery is crucial to make solvent-based technology cost-competitive. With an estimated scale factor of 0.72, increasing the plant capacity decreases the supply cost because of economies of scale. The results also show that when the supply costs of solvent-based dilbit are compared to current and short-term forecasted crude oil prices, they are economically viable. The findings of this study are useful for policy and investment decision-making on solvent-based bitumen extraction technology.