Persistent mitigation efforts and implications for China's emissions peak using statistical projections

To keep global warming below 2 °C by 2100, as per the Paris Agreement, China has announced to peak its CO2 emissions before 2030. Several studies have explored the emissions trajectories in China, but it is as yet uncertain how persistent mitigation efforts of individual provinces and sectors will impact the achievement of ambitious emissions reduction goal. Here we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian analysis with a modified Kaya identity to project the CO2 emissions in China before 2050. We find that, with persistent mitigation efforts, China can reach an emissions peak in 2032 at 13395 Mt. CO2, which is later than its announced time. Moreover, China's total emissions will reduce slowly after peaking time, with an average annual reduction rate of 0.47%. There are 15 provinces whose emissions will peak before 2030, while 11 provinces can peak during 2030–2050, and 4 provinces can hardly obtain the peak before 2050. Future emission decreases result from the interplay between a rapid reduction driven by decreasing emission intensities, especially in industry, against the increases from economic and population growth. In addition, we find an important mitigation impact from economic structure shift towards services. Such information will be necessary for China's future low-carbon development and will provide implications for policy making. [Display omitted] •We project China’s CO2 emissions with statistical analysis.•We investigate the driving factors of CO2 emissions by the LMDI analysis.•China’s CO2 emissions will peak in 2032 at 13395 Mt. CO2.•Half of provinces will reach an emission peaking before 2030.•Emissions pattern will shift from industry towards services.