Initial decline in eGFR to predict tolvaptan response in autosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease

Background Tolvaptan, a vasopressin V2 receptor antagonist, is used to treat autosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD). Although tolvaptan curbs disease progression, a few reports have examined factors related to treatment response. The estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decreases soon after tolvaptan is initiated. We investigated whether initial eGFR decline affects renal prognosis of patients. Methods This was a single-center, retrospective observational cohort study. Eighty-three patients with ADPKD who initiated tolvaptan were selected. We analyzed the relationship of the initial eGFR change with clinical parameters and analyzed the annual eGFR change in terms of renal prognostic value using univariable and multivariable linear regression analyses. Results The initial eGFR change was − 4.6 ± 8.0%/month. The initial eGFR change correlated significantly with the annual eGFR change in multivariable analysis, suggesting that the larger decline in the initial eGFR change, the better the renal prognosis. Furthermore, the change in fractional excretion (FE) of free water (FEH 2 O) correlated positively with initial eGFR change. FEH 2 O and urea nitrogen FE (FEUN) increased significantly; however, sodium FE (FENa) level remained unchanged. In approximately half of the patients, FENa unexpectedly decreased. Conclusions The initial eGFR decline might be caused by suppressing glomerular hyperfiltration, due to the pharmacological effect of tolvaptan, and/or by reducing renal plasma flow, due to potential volume depletion. The initial eGFR change reflects the tolvaptan effect, can be easily evaluated in clinical practice, and may be useful as one of the clinical indicator for predicting renal prognosis in patients under tolvaptan.