Competing-risk nomogram for predicting survival in patients with advanced (stage III/IV) gallbladder cancer: A SEER population-based study
Abstract Objective The primary aim of this study was to assess the cumulative incidence of cause-specific mortality (CSM) and other cause-specific mortality (OCSM) for patients with advanced gallbladder cancer (GBC), and then to develop a nomogram based on competing-risk analysis to forecast CSM. Me...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | Japanese journal of clinical oncology 2022-04, Vol.52 (4), p.353-361 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | 361 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 4 |
| container_start_page | 353 |
| container_title | Japanese journal of clinical oncology |
| container_volume | 52 |
| creator | Wang, Jian Yang, Yi Pan, Junjie Qiu, Yiwen Shen, Shu Wang, Wentao |
| description | Abstract
Objective
The primary aim of this study was to assess the cumulative incidence of cause-specific mortality (CSM) and other cause-specific mortality (OCSM) for patients with advanced gallbladder cancer (GBC), and then to develop a nomogram based on competing-risk analysis to forecast CSM.
Methods
We identified the patients with GBC with specific screening criteria and from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. We calculated the cumulative incidence function for CSM and OCSM, and constructed a competing-risk nomogram based on the Fine and Gray’s proportional subdistribution hazard regression model to forecast the probability of CSM of these patients. In addition, the concordance index and calibration plot were performed to validate the novel established model.
Results
A total of 1411 patients were included in this study. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall cumulative mortalities were 46.2, 62.2, and 69.6% for CSM, respectively, while they were 6.2, 8.7, and 10.4% for OCSM. Additionally, the 1-, 2-, and 3-year estimates of overall survival were 47.6, 29.1, and 19.9% for above these patients, respectively. We also developed a competing-risk nomogram to estimate the CSM. The concordance index was 0.775 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.750–0.800) in the training set and that was 0.765 (95% CI: 0.730–0.800) in the internal validation set, which suggests the robustness of the novel established model. Furthermore, the calibration curves and concordance index demonstrated that the nomogram was well-calibrated and demonstrated good discriminative ability.
Conclusions
The ample sample allowed us to develop a reliable model which demonstrated better calibration and discrimination for predicting the probability of CSM of patients with advanced GBC.
The patients extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database have contributed to constructing a competing-risk nomogram for a better understanding of the long-term prognosis of advanced (stage III/IV) gallbladder cancer. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1093/jjco/hyab212 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_2627133187</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><oup_id>10.1093/jjco/hyab212</oup_id><sourcerecordid>2627133187</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c347t-5248b8853f4dfda38f91b0c3687cc6c5ccd1330b7c434b39c529c11fb4d6792e3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp9kMtKw0AUQAdRbK3uXMvsrGDsTCbJJO5KqRooCL62YV5ppyaZOJNU-gt-tQmt4srVvXDPPYsDwDlGNxglZLJeCzNZbRn3sX8AhjiIQo9EPj78sw_AiXNrhFAYB_QYDEiICcU4HoKvmSlr1ehq6Vnt3mFlSrO0rIS5sbC2SmrRH6Fr7UZvWAF1BWvWaFU1Dn7qZgWZ3LBKKAnHrmFLBdM0naRvV3DJioIXTEploegJewun8Hk-f4K1qduik5jK48x1r65p5fYUHOWscOpsP0fg9W7-MnvwFo_36Wy68AQJaOOFfhDzOA5JHshcMhLnCeZIkCimQkQiFEJiQhCnIiABJ4kI_URgnPNARjTxFRmB8c5bW_PRKtdkpXZCFQWrlGld5kc-7Qw4ph16vUOFNc5ZlWe11SWz2wyjrK-f9fWzff0Ov9ibW14q-Qv_5O6Ayx1g2vp_1Tc3pZB_</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2627133187</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Competing-risk nomogram for predicting survival in patients with advanced (stage III/IV) gallbladder cancer: A SEER population-based study</title><source>MEDLINE</source><source>Oxford University Press Journals All Titles (1996-Current)</source><source>EZB-FREE-00999 freely available EZB journals</source><source>Alma/SFX Local Collection</source><creator>Wang, Jian ; Yang, Yi ; Pan, Junjie ; Qiu, Yiwen ; Shen, Shu ; Wang, Wentao</creator><creatorcontrib>Wang, Jian ; Yang, Yi ; Pan, Junjie ; Qiu, Yiwen ; Shen, Shu ; Wang, Wentao</creatorcontrib><description>Abstract
Objective
The primary aim of this study was to assess the cumulative incidence of cause-specific mortality (CSM) and other cause-specific mortality (OCSM) for patients with advanced gallbladder cancer (GBC), and then to develop a nomogram based on competing-risk analysis to forecast CSM.
Methods
We identified the patients with GBC with specific screening criteria and from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. We calculated the cumulative incidence function for CSM and OCSM, and constructed a competing-risk nomogram based on the Fine and Gray’s proportional subdistribution hazard regression model to forecast the probability of CSM of these patients. In addition, the concordance index and calibration plot were performed to validate the novel established model.
Results
A total of 1411 patients were included in this study. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall cumulative mortalities were 46.2, 62.2, and 69.6% for CSM, respectively, while they were 6.2, 8.7, and 10.4% for OCSM. Additionally, the 1-, 2-, and 3-year estimates of overall survival were 47.6, 29.1, and 19.9% for above these patients, respectively. We also developed a competing-risk nomogram to estimate the CSM. The concordance index was 0.775 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.750–0.800) in the training set and that was 0.765 (95% CI: 0.730–0.800) in the internal validation set, which suggests the robustness of the novel established model. Furthermore, the calibration curves and concordance index demonstrated that the nomogram was well-calibrated and demonstrated good discriminative ability.
Conclusions
The ample sample allowed us to develop a reliable model which demonstrated better calibration and discrimination for predicting the probability of CSM of patients with advanced GBC.
The patients extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database have contributed to constructing a competing-risk nomogram for a better understanding of the long-term prognosis of advanced (stage III/IV) gallbladder cancer.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1465-3621</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1465-3621</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1093/jjco/hyab212</identifier><identifier>PMID: 35137118</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>England: Oxford University Press</publisher><subject>Carcinoma in Situ ; Gallbladder Neoplasms ; Humans ; Incidence ; Nomograms ; Prognosis ; SEER Program</subject><ispartof>Japanese journal of clinical oncology, 2022-04, Vol.52 (4), p.353-361</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com 2022</rights><rights>The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c347t-5248b8853f4dfda38f91b0c3687cc6c5ccd1330b7c434b39c529c11fb4d6792e3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c347t-5248b8853f4dfda38f91b0c3687cc6c5ccd1330b7c434b39c529c11fb4d6792e3</cites><orcidid>0000-0001-7280-0566</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>315,781,785,1585,27929,27930</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35137118$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Wang, Jian</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yang, Yi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pan, Junjie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Qiu, Yiwen</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shen, Shu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Wentao</creatorcontrib><title>Competing-risk nomogram for predicting survival in patients with advanced (stage III/IV) gallbladder cancer: A SEER population-based study</title><title>Japanese journal of clinical oncology</title><addtitle>Jpn J Clin Oncol</addtitle><description>Abstract
Objective
The primary aim of this study was to assess the cumulative incidence of cause-specific mortality (CSM) and other cause-specific mortality (OCSM) for patients with advanced gallbladder cancer (GBC), and then to develop a nomogram based on competing-risk analysis to forecast CSM.
Methods
We identified the patients with GBC with specific screening criteria and from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. We calculated the cumulative incidence function for CSM and OCSM, and constructed a competing-risk nomogram based on the Fine and Gray’s proportional subdistribution hazard regression model to forecast the probability of CSM of these patients. In addition, the concordance index and calibration plot were performed to validate the novel established model.
Results
A total of 1411 patients were included in this study. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall cumulative mortalities were 46.2, 62.2, and 69.6% for CSM, respectively, while they were 6.2, 8.7, and 10.4% for OCSM. Additionally, the 1-, 2-, and 3-year estimates of overall survival were 47.6, 29.1, and 19.9% for above these patients, respectively. We also developed a competing-risk nomogram to estimate the CSM. The concordance index was 0.775 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.750–0.800) in the training set and that was 0.765 (95% CI: 0.730–0.800) in the internal validation set, which suggests the robustness of the novel established model. Furthermore, the calibration curves and concordance index demonstrated that the nomogram was well-calibrated and demonstrated good discriminative ability.
Conclusions
The ample sample allowed us to develop a reliable model which demonstrated better calibration and discrimination for predicting the probability of CSM of patients with advanced GBC.
The patients extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database have contributed to constructing a competing-risk nomogram for a better understanding of the long-term prognosis of advanced (stage III/IV) gallbladder cancer.</description><subject>Carcinoma in Situ</subject><subject>Gallbladder Neoplasms</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Nomograms</subject><subject>Prognosis</subject><subject>SEER Program</subject><issn>1465-3621</issn><issn>1465-3621</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2022</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kMtKw0AUQAdRbK3uXMvsrGDsTCbJJO5KqRooCL62YV5ppyaZOJNU-gt-tQmt4srVvXDPPYsDwDlGNxglZLJeCzNZbRn3sX8AhjiIQo9EPj78sw_AiXNrhFAYB_QYDEiICcU4HoKvmSlr1ehq6Vnt3mFlSrO0rIS5sbC2SmrRH6Fr7UZvWAF1BWvWaFU1Dn7qZgWZ3LBKKAnHrmFLBdM0naRvV3DJioIXTEploegJewun8Hk-f4K1qduik5jK48x1r65p5fYUHOWscOpsP0fg9W7-MnvwFo_36Wy68AQJaOOFfhDzOA5JHshcMhLnCeZIkCimQkQiFEJiQhCnIiABJ4kI_URgnPNARjTxFRmB8c5bW_PRKtdkpXZCFQWrlGld5kc-7Qw4ph16vUOFNc5ZlWe11SWz2wyjrK-f9fWzff0Ov9ibW14q-Qv_5O6Ayx1g2vp_1Tc3pZB_</recordid><startdate>20220406</startdate><enddate>20220406</enddate><creator>Wang, Jian</creator><creator>Yang, Yi</creator><creator>Pan, Junjie</creator><creator>Qiu, Yiwen</creator><creator>Shen, Shu</creator><creator>Wang, Wentao</creator><general>Oxford University Press</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7X8</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7280-0566</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20220406</creationdate><title>Competing-risk nomogram for predicting survival in patients with advanced (stage III/IV) gallbladder cancer: A SEER population-based study</title><author>Wang, Jian ; Yang, Yi ; Pan, Junjie ; Qiu, Yiwen ; Shen, Shu ; Wang, Wentao</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c347t-5248b8853f4dfda38f91b0c3687cc6c5ccd1330b7c434b39c529c11fb4d6792e3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2022</creationdate><topic>Carcinoma in Situ</topic><topic>Gallbladder Neoplasms</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Incidence</topic><topic>Nomograms</topic><topic>Prognosis</topic><topic>SEER Program</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Wang, Jian</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yang, Yi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pan, Junjie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Qiu, Yiwen</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shen, Shu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Wentao</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Japanese journal of clinical oncology</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Wang, Jian</au><au>Yang, Yi</au><au>Pan, Junjie</au><au>Qiu, Yiwen</au><au>Shen, Shu</au><au>Wang, Wentao</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Competing-risk nomogram for predicting survival in patients with advanced (stage III/IV) gallbladder cancer: A SEER population-based study</atitle><jtitle>Japanese journal of clinical oncology</jtitle><addtitle>Jpn J Clin Oncol</addtitle><date>2022-04-06</date><risdate>2022</risdate><volume>52</volume><issue>4</issue><spage>353</spage><epage>361</epage><pages>353-361</pages><issn>1465-3621</issn><eissn>1465-3621</eissn><abstract>Abstract
Objective
The primary aim of this study was to assess the cumulative incidence of cause-specific mortality (CSM) and other cause-specific mortality (OCSM) for patients with advanced gallbladder cancer (GBC), and then to develop a nomogram based on competing-risk analysis to forecast CSM.
Methods
We identified the patients with GBC with specific screening criteria and from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. We calculated the cumulative incidence function for CSM and OCSM, and constructed a competing-risk nomogram based on the Fine and Gray’s proportional subdistribution hazard regression model to forecast the probability of CSM of these patients. In addition, the concordance index and calibration plot were performed to validate the novel established model.
Results
A total of 1411 patients were included in this study. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall cumulative mortalities were 46.2, 62.2, and 69.6% for CSM, respectively, while they were 6.2, 8.7, and 10.4% for OCSM. Additionally, the 1-, 2-, and 3-year estimates of overall survival were 47.6, 29.1, and 19.9% for above these patients, respectively. We also developed a competing-risk nomogram to estimate the CSM. The concordance index was 0.775 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.750–0.800) in the training set and that was 0.765 (95% CI: 0.730–0.800) in the internal validation set, which suggests the robustness of the novel established model. Furthermore, the calibration curves and concordance index demonstrated that the nomogram was well-calibrated and demonstrated good discriminative ability.
Conclusions
The ample sample allowed us to develop a reliable model which demonstrated better calibration and discrimination for predicting the probability of CSM of patients with advanced GBC.
The patients extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database have contributed to constructing a competing-risk nomogram for a better understanding of the long-term prognosis of advanced (stage III/IV) gallbladder cancer.</abstract><cop>England</cop><pub>Oxford University Press</pub><pmid>35137118</pmid><doi>10.1093/jjco/hyab212</doi><tpages>9</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7280-0566</orcidid></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 1465-3621 |
| ispartof | Japanese journal of clinical oncology, 2022-04, Vol.52 (4), p.353-361 |
| issn | 1465-3621 1465-3621 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_2627133187 |
| source | MEDLINE; Oxford University Press Journals All Titles (1996-Current); EZB-FREE-00999 freely available EZB journals; Alma/SFX Local Collection |
| subjects | Carcinoma in Situ Gallbladder Neoplasms Humans Incidence Nomograms Prognosis SEER Program |
| title | Competing-risk nomogram for predicting survival in patients with advanced (stage III/IV) gallbladder cancer: A SEER population-based study |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2024-12-12T05%3A46%3A51IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Competing-risk%20nomogram%20for%20predicting%20survival%20in%20patients%20with%20advanced%20(stage%20III/IV)%20gallbladder%20cancer:%20A%20SEER%20population-based%20study&rft.jtitle=Japanese%20journal%20of%20clinical%20oncology&rft.au=Wang,%20Jian&rft.date=2022-04-06&rft.volume=52&rft.issue=4&rft.spage=353&rft.epage=361&rft.pages=353-361&rft.issn=1465-3621&rft.eissn=1465-3621&rft_id=info:doi/10.1093/jjco/hyab212&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E2627133187%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2627133187&rft_id=info:pmid/35137118&rft_oup_id=10.1093/jjco/hyab212&rfr_iscdi=true |