Neoadjuvant chemotherapy in high‐risk soft tissue sarcomas: A Sarculator‐based risk stratification analysis of the ISG‐STS 1001 randomized trial

Background The value of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in soft tissue sarcoma (STS) is not completely understood. This study investigated the benefit of neoadjuvant chemotherapy according to prognostic stratification based on the Sarculator nomogram for STS. Methods This study analyzed data from ISG‐STS 1001, a randomized study that tested 3 cycles of neoadjuvant anthracycline plus ifosfamide (AI) or histology‐tailored (HT) chemotherapy in adult patients with STS. The 10‐year predicted overall survival (pr‐OS) was estimated with the Sarculator and was stratified into higher (10‐year pr‐OS < 60%) and lower risk subgroups (10‐year pr‐OS ≥ 60%). Results The median pr‐OS was 0.63 (interquartile range [IQR], 0.51‐0.72) for the entire study population, 0.62 (IQR, 0.51‐0.70) for the AI arm, and 0.64 (IQR, 0.51‐0.73) for the HT arm. Three‐ and 5‐year overall survival (OS) were 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82‐0.93) and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.71‐0.86) in lower risk patients and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.70‐0.85) and 0.59 (95% CI, 0.51‐0.72) in the higher risk patients (log‐rank test, P = .004). In higher risk patients, the 3‐ and 5‐year Sarculator‐predicted and study‐observed OS rates were 0.68 and 0.58, respectively, and 0.85 and 0.66, respectively, in the AI arm (P = .04); the corresponding figures in the HT arm were 0.69 and 0.60, respectively, and 0.69 and 0.55, respectively (P > .99). In lower risk patients, the 3‐ and 5‐year Sarculator‐predicted and study‐observed OS rates were 0.85 and 0.80, respectively, and 0.89 and 0.82, respectively, in the AI arm (P = .507); the corresponding figures in the HT arm were 0.87 and 0.81, respectively, and 0.86 and 0.74, respectively (P = .105). Conclusions High‐risk patients treated with AI performed better than predicted, and this adds to the evidence for the efficacy of neoadjuvant AI in STS. Lay Summary People affected by soft tissue sarcomas of the extremities and trunk wall are at some risk of developing metastasis after surgery. Preoperative or postoperative chemotherapy has been tested in clinical trials to reduce the chances of distant metastasis. However, study findings have not been conclusive. This study stratified the risk of metastasis for people affected by sarcomas who were included in a clinical trial testing neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Exploiting the prognostic nomogram Sarculator, it found a benefit for chemotherapy when the predicted risk, based on patient and tumor characteristics, was high. This analysis of the ISG‐STS