Forecasting a 2-methylisoborneol outbreak in a brackish lake
2-Methylisoborneol (2-MIB) is the primary cause of the earthy and musty odor produced by cyanobacteria, which deteriorates the quality of fishery products and tap water. Despite the need for controlling outbreaks, few studies have been conducted on 2-MIB in brackish lakes, where capture fisheries ar...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Environmental monitoring and assessment 2021-07, Vol.193 (7), p.379-379, Article 379 |
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| creator | Shizuka, Kazunori Maie, Nagamitsu Kakino, Wataru Taruya, Hiroyuki Tanji, Hajime |
| description | 2-Methylisoborneol (2-MIB) is the primary cause of the earthy and musty odor produced by cyanobacteria, which deteriorates the quality of fishery products and tap water. Despite the need for controlling outbreaks, few studies have been conducted on 2-MIB in brackish lakes, where capture fisheries are active. This study examined the association between water quality and the outbreak of 2-MIB in a brackish lake using statistical analysis of long-term monitoring data and developed forecasting models for 2-MIB outbreaks. We investigated Lake Ogawara, which is a brackish lake with a cool-temperate climate in Japan, where 2-MIB outbreaks frequently occur between August and December. Logistic regression analyses were performed using the outbreak or non-outbreak of 2-MIB (2-MIB(+ / −)) as the dependent variable and water quality parameters as the independent variables. The results suggested that the density of 2-MIB-producing cyanobacteria was higher when (1) dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations were low under the relaxation of phosphorus limitation and/or (2) salinity or micronutrient concentrations were high. In addition, we successfully developed forecasting models with a high predictive power that determined 2-MIB(+ / −) in August–December using only two water quality parameters: dissolved inorganic phosphate and pH in April and total nitrogen/total phosphorous and salinity in May. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10661-021-09140-9 |
| format | Article |
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Despite the need for controlling outbreaks, few studies have been conducted on 2-MIB in brackish lakes, where capture fisheries are active. This study examined the association between water quality and the outbreak of 2-MIB in a brackish lake using statistical analysis of long-term monitoring data and developed forecasting models for 2-MIB outbreaks. We investigated Lake Ogawara, which is a brackish lake with a cool-temperate climate in Japan, where 2-MIB outbreaks frequently occur between August and December. Logistic regression analyses were performed using the outbreak or non-outbreak of 2-MIB (2-MIB(+ / −)) as the dependent variable and water quality parameters as the independent variables. The results suggested that the density of 2-MIB-producing cyanobacteria was higher when (1) dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations were low under the relaxation of phosphorus limitation and/or (2) salinity or micronutrient concentrations were high. In addition, we successfully developed forecasting models with a high predictive power that determined 2-MIB(+ / −) in August–December using only two water quality parameters: dissolved inorganic phosphate and pH in April and total nitrogen/total phosphorous and salinity in May.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0167-6369</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1573-2959</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10661-021-09140-9</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Cham: Springer International Publishing</publisher><subject>2-Methylisoborneol ; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution ; Capture fisheries ; Cyanobacteria ; Dependent variables ; Drinking water ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Ecology ; Ecotoxicology ; Environment ; Environmental Management ; Environmental monitoring ; Environmental science ; Fisheries ; Fishery products ; Forecasting ; Independent variables ; Lakes ; Mathematical models ; Monitoring/Environmental Analysis ; Nitrogen ; Odor ; Odour ; Outbreaks ; Parameters ; Phosphates ; Phosphorus ; Salinity ; Salinity effects ; Statistical analysis ; Statistical analysis of data ; Statistical methods ; Temperate climates ; Water quality</subject><ispartof>Environmental monitoring and assessment, 2021-07, Vol.193 (7), p.379-379, Article 379</ispartof><rights>The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021</rights><rights>The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c418t-656110f38ab3bb84e5955aebd9ee10ae60420b64a0af01a0e97fe9f6a90517ec3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c418t-656110f38ab3bb84e5955aebd9ee10ae60420b64a0af01a0e97fe9f6a90517ec3</cites><orcidid>0000-0003-2206-3814 ; 0000-0001-9450-061X</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10661-021-09140-9$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10661-021-09140-9$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,777,781,27905,27906,41469,42538,51300</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Shizuka, Kazunori</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Maie, Nagamitsu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kakino, Wataru</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Taruya, Hiroyuki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tanji, Hajime</creatorcontrib><title>Forecasting a 2-methylisoborneol outbreak in a brackish lake</title><title>Environmental monitoring and assessment</title><addtitle>Environ Monit Assess</addtitle><description>2-Methylisoborneol (2-MIB) is the primary cause of the earthy and musty odor produced by cyanobacteria, which deteriorates the quality of fishery products and tap water. Despite the need for controlling outbreaks, few studies have been conducted on 2-MIB in brackish lakes, where capture fisheries are active. This study examined the association between water quality and the outbreak of 2-MIB in a brackish lake using statistical analysis of long-term monitoring data and developed forecasting models for 2-MIB outbreaks. We investigated Lake Ogawara, which is a brackish lake with a cool-temperate climate in Japan, where 2-MIB outbreaks frequently occur between August and December. Logistic regression analyses were performed using the outbreak or non-outbreak of 2-MIB (2-MIB(+ / −)) as the dependent variable and water quality parameters as the independent variables. The results suggested that the density of 2-MIB-producing cyanobacteria was higher when (1) dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations were low under the relaxation of phosphorus limitation and/or (2) salinity or micronutrient concentrations were high. In addition, we successfully developed forecasting models with a high predictive power that determined 2-MIB(+ / −) in August–December using only two water quality parameters: dissolved inorganic phosphate and pH in April and total nitrogen/total phosphorous and salinity in May.</description><subject>2-Methylisoborneol</subject><subject>Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution</subject><subject>Capture fisheries</subject><subject>Cyanobacteria</subject><subject>Dependent variables</subject><subject>Drinking water</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Ecology</subject><subject>Ecotoxicology</subject><subject>Environment</subject><subject>Environmental Management</subject><subject>Environmental monitoring</subject><subject>Environmental science</subject><subject>Fisheries</subject><subject>Fishery products</subject><subject>Forecasting</subject><subject>Independent variables</subject><subject>Lakes</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Monitoring/Environmental Analysis</subject><subject>Nitrogen</subject><subject>Odor</subject><subject>Odour</subject><subject>Outbreaks</subject><subject>Parameters</subject><subject>Phosphates</subject><subject>Phosphorus</subject><subject>Salinity</subject><subject>Salinity effects</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Statistical analysis of data</subject><subject>Statistical methods</subject><subject>Temperate climates</subject><subject>Water 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Hajime</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Forecasting a 2-methylisoborneol outbreak in a brackish lake</atitle><jtitle>Environmental monitoring and assessment</jtitle><stitle>Environ Monit Assess</stitle><date>2021-07-01</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>193</volume><issue>7</issue><spage>379</spage><epage>379</epage><pages>379-379</pages><artnum>379</artnum><issn>0167-6369</issn><eissn>1573-2959</eissn><abstract>2-Methylisoborneol (2-MIB) is the primary cause of the earthy and musty odor produced by cyanobacteria, which deteriorates the quality of fishery products and tap water. Despite the need for controlling outbreaks, few studies have been conducted on 2-MIB in brackish lakes, where capture fisheries are active. This study examined the association between water quality and the outbreak of 2-MIB in a brackish lake using statistical analysis of long-term monitoring data and developed forecasting models for 2-MIB outbreaks. We investigated Lake Ogawara, which is a brackish lake with a cool-temperate climate in Japan, where 2-MIB outbreaks frequently occur between August and December. Logistic regression analyses were performed using the outbreak or non-outbreak of 2-MIB (2-MIB(+ / −)) as the dependent variable and water quality parameters as the independent variables. The results suggested that the density of 2-MIB-producing cyanobacteria was higher when (1) dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations were low under the relaxation of phosphorus limitation and/or (2) salinity or micronutrient concentrations were high. In addition, we successfully developed forecasting models with a high predictive power that determined 2-MIB(+ / −) in August–December using only two water quality parameters: dissolved inorganic phosphate and pH in April and total nitrogen/total phosphorous and salinity in May.</abstract><cop>Cham</cop><pub>Springer International Publishing</pub><doi>10.1007/s10661-021-09140-9</doi><tpages>1</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2206-3814</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9450-061X</orcidid></addata></record> |
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| subjects | 2-Methylisoborneol Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Capture fisheries Cyanobacteria Dependent variables Drinking water Earth and Environmental Science Ecology Ecotoxicology Environment Environmental Management Environmental monitoring Environmental science Fisheries Fishery products Forecasting Independent variables Lakes Mathematical models Monitoring/Environmental Analysis Nitrogen Odor Odour Outbreaks Parameters Phosphates Phosphorus Salinity Salinity effects Statistical analysis Statistical analysis of data Statistical methods Temperate climates Water quality |
| title | Forecasting a 2-methylisoborneol outbreak in a brackish lake |
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