A preoperative risk prediction model for high malignancy potential gastrointestinal stromal tumors of the stomach

Background Gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) exhibit various degrees of aggression and malignant potential. However, no systematic preoperative evaluation strategy to predict the malignancy potential of gastric GISTs has yet been developed. This study aimed to develop a reliable and easy-to-use preoperative risk-scoring model for predicting high malignancy potential (HMP) gastric GISTs. Methods The data of 542 patients with pathologically confirmed gastric GISTs who underwent resection were reviewed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify significant predictors of HMP. The risk-scoring system (RSS) was based on the predictive factors for HMP, and its performance was validated using a split-sample approach. Results A total of 239 of 542 (44.1%) surgically resected gastric GISTs had HMP. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that tumor size, location, and surface changes were independent risk factors for HMP. Based on the accordant regression coefficients, the presence of surface ulceration was assigned 1 point. Tumor sizes of 4–6 cm and > 6 cm were assigned 2 and 5 points, respectively. Two points were assigned to cardia or fundus locations. A score of 3 points was the optimal cut-off value for HMP prediction. HMP were found in 19.8% and 82.7% of the low and high-risk groups of the RSS, respectively. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for predicting HMP was 0.81 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75–0.86). Discrimination was good after validation (0.75, 95% CI 0.69–0.81). Conclusion This simple RSS could be useful for predicting the malignancy potential of gastric GISTs and may aid preoperative clinical decision making to ensure optimal treatment.