Simulation of fruit fly population dynamics, with particular reference to the olive fruit fly, Dacus oleae

The fruit flies Dacus oleae and Dacus tryoni have ecological behav number of multivoltine tephritids. In particular, their dynamics appear to be largely controlled by climatic factors and by host availability, rather than by predators and parasites. We describe a computer simulation model, which predicts the phenology and dynamics of D. oleae using field data. We derive all developmental parameters (including developmental variability) from laboratory data, rather than setting the parameters post hoc to produce realistic results. Nevertheless, good fits to observed phenology have been obtained. We discuss here the techniques used for estimating these parameters, as well as other techniques required for simulation of the phenology and population dynamics when common simplifications (such as synchronous oviposition and physiological time) are not applicable.