Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19
Background Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COV...
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| creator | Pinotti, Francesco Wikramaratna, Paul S. Obolski, Uri Paton, Robert S. Damineli, Daniel S. C. Alcantara, Luiz C. J. Giovanetti, Marta Gupta, Sunetra Lourenco, Jose |
| description | Background Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection. Results We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-exposure to the same eHCoV diminishes cross-protection, and increases the potential for disease severity. We show numerically that our proposed mechanism can explain age patterns of COVID-19 hospitalisation in EU/EEA countries and the UK. We further show that some of the observed variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates under this model. Conclusions This study provides a "proof of possibility" for certain biological and epidemiological mechanisms that could potentially drive COVID-19-related variation across age groups. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to eHCoVs and highlight data interpretation challenges arising from health care capacity and SARS-CoV-2 testing. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1186/s12916-020-01887-1 |
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C. ; Alcantara, Luiz C. J. ; Giovanetti, Marta ; Gupta, Sunetra ; Lourenco, Jose</creator><creatorcontrib>Pinotti, Francesco ; Wikramaratna, Paul S. ; Obolski, Uri ; Paton, Robert S. ; Damineli, Daniel S. C. ; Alcantara, Luiz C. J. ; Giovanetti, Marta ; Gupta, Sunetra ; Lourenco, Jose</creatorcontrib><description>Background Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection. Results We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-exposure to the same eHCoV diminishes cross-protection, and increases the potential for disease severity. We show numerically that our proposed mechanism can explain age patterns of COVID-19 hospitalisation in EU/EEA countries and the UK. We further show that some of the observed variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates under this model. Conclusions This study provides a "proof of possibility" for certain biological and epidemiological mechanisms that could potentially drive COVID-19-related variation across age groups. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to eHCoVs and highlight data interpretation challenges arising from health care capacity and SARS-CoV-2 testing.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1741-7015</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1741-7015</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01887-1</identifier><identifier>PMID: 33430856</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>LONDON: Springer Nature</publisher><subject>Age ; Age Factors ; Age factors in disease ; Analysis ; Antibodies ; Coronaviridae ; Coronavirus - classification ; Coronavirus - immunology ; Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections - immunology ; Coronavirus Infections - therapy ; Coronaviruses ; COVID-19 ; COVID-19 - epidemiology ; COVID-19 - immunology ; COVID-19 - physiopathology ; Cross Protection - immunology ; Cross Reactions - immunology ; Cross-protection ; Cross-reactivity ; Data interpretation ; Disease transmission ; Endemic coronaviruses ; Endemic Diseases ; Epidemics ; Epidemiology ; Exposure ; Fatalities ; General & Internal Medicine ; Health aspects ; Health care ; Health risks ; Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; Illnesses ; Immunity, Heterologous - immunology ; Immunopathology ; Infections ; Life Sciences & Biomedicine ; Mathematical model ; Mathematical models ; Medical research ; Medicine, Experimental ; Medicine, General & Internal ; Patient-Specific Modeling ; Physiological aspects ; Population ; Reactivity ; SARS-CoV-2 ; SARS-CoV-2 - immunology ; Science & Technology ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ; Severity of Illness Index ; Viral diseases</subject><ispartof>BMC medicine, 2021-01, Vol.19 (1), p.19-19, Article 19</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2021 BioMed Central Ltd.</rights><rights>2021. This work is licensed under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>The Author(s) 2021</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>true</woscitedreferencessubscribed><woscitedreferencescount>10</woscitedreferencescount><woscitedreferencesoriginalsourcerecordid>wos000609197400001</woscitedreferencesoriginalsourcerecordid><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c594t-46edc3e3fe0284bf1d3c8aae58eb493e413d8a29467aa64f27b1c4f4ad2b33ee3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c594t-46edc3e3fe0284bf1d3c8aae58eb493e413d8a29467aa64f27b1c4f4ad2b33ee3</cites><orcidid>0000-0003-1953-2106 ; 0000-0002-9318-2581</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7801230/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7801230/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,315,728,781,785,865,886,2103,2115,27929,27930,39263,53796,53798</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33430856$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Pinotti, Francesco</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wikramaratna, Paul S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Obolski, Uri</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Paton, Robert S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Damineli, Daniel S. C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Alcantara, Luiz C. J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Giovanetti, Marta</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gupta, Sunetra</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lourenco, Jose</creatorcontrib><title>Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19</title><title>BMC medicine</title><addtitle>BMC MED</addtitle><addtitle>BMC Med</addtitle><description>Background Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection. Results We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-exposure to the same eHCoV diminishes cross-protection, and increases the potential for disease severity. We show numerically that our proposed mechanism can explain age patterns of COVID-19 hospitalisation in EU/EEA countries and the UK. We further show that some of the observed variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates under this model. Conclusions This study provides a "proof of possibility" for certain biological and epidemiological mechanisms that could potentially drive COVID-19-related variation across age groups. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to eHCoVs and highlight data interpretation challenges arising from health care capacity and SARS-CoV-2 testing.</description><subject>Age</subject><subject>Age Factors</subject><subject>Age factors in disease</subject><subject>Analysis</subject><subject>Antibodies</subject><subject>Coronaviridae</subject><subject>Coronavirus - classification</subject><subject>Coronavirus - immunology</subject><subject>Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology</subject><subject>Coronavirus Infections - immunology</subject><subject>Coronavirus Infections - therapy</subject><subject>Coronaviruses</subject><subject>COVID-19</subject><subject>COVID-19 - epidemiology</subject><subject>COVID-19 - immunology</subject><subject>COVID-19 - physiopathology</subject><subject>Cross Protection - immunology</subject><subject>Cross Reactions - immunology</subject><subject>Cross-protection</subject><subject>Cross-reactivity</subject><subject>Data interpretation</subject><subject>Disease transmission</subject><subject>Endemic coronaviruses</subject><subject>Endemic Diseases</subject><subject>Epidemics</subject><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Exposure</subject><subject>Fatalities</subject><subject>General & Internal Medicine</subject><subject>Health aspects</subject><subject>Health care</subject><subject>Health risks</subject><subject>Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Illnesses</subject><subject>Immunity, Heterologous - immunology</subject><subject>Immunopathology</subject><subject>Infections</subject><subject>Life Sciences & Biomedicine</subject><subject>Mathematical model</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Medical research</subject><subject>Medicine, Experimental</subject><subject>Medicine, General & Internal</subject><subject>Patient-Specific Modeling</subject><subject>Physiological aspects</subject><subject>Population</subject><subject>Reactivity</subject><subject>SARS-CoV-2</subject><subject>SARS-CoV-2 - immunology</subject><subject>Science & Technology</subject><subject>Severe acute respiratory syndrome</subject><subject>Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</subject><subject>Severity of Illness Index</subject><subject>Viral diseases</subject><issn>1741-7015</issn><issn>1741-7015</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>HGBXW</sourceid><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>DOA</sourceid><recordid>eNqNkl2L1DAUhoso7rr6B7yQgiCCdM1Xm_RGWMavgYX1Qr0NaXoyk6VNxiQd3X9vOrMOM-KFNNBw8pw355y8RfEco0uMRfM2YtLipkIEVQgLwSv8oDjHnOGKI1w_PNqfFU9ivEWI1Jyzx8UZpYwiUTfnxfaLT-CSVUNpx43SqfSmtK63W9tPOQi_Nj5OAcq1jckHC7FMvgTXw2h1uZ5G5Urtg3dqa8MU87F3pVpB1cNmplwqI2wh2HQ3Ky9uvi_fV7h9Wjwyaojw7P5_UXz7-OHr4nN1ffNpubi6rnTdslSxBnpNgRpARLDO4J5qoRTUAjrWUmCY9kKRljVcqYYZwjusmWGqJx2lAPSiWO51e69u5SbYUYU76ZWVu4APK6lCsnoAieuWshaZFrhgphVdB4oQjHrT5kVM1nq319pM3Zjryr0FNZyInp44u5Yrv5VcIEwoygKv7wWC_zFBTHK0UcMwKAd-ipIwzkmuguOMvvwLvfVTcHlUMyV4jRp8RK1UbsA64_O9ehaVV01NG845Zpm6_AeVv90begfG5vhJwqujhDWoIa2jH6ZkvYunINmDOvgYA5jDMDCSs0Xl3qIyW1TuLCrnol8cj_GQ8seTGXizB35C503UFpyGA4YQalCLW87yDs1y4v_phU1q7mLhJ5fobxBkAkI</recordid><startdate>20210112</startdate><enddate>20210112</enddate><creator>Pinotti, Francesco</creator><creator>Wikramaratna, Paul S.</creator><creator>Obolski, Uri</creator><creator>Paton, Robert S.</creator><creator>Damineli, Daniel S. 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C. ; Alcantara, Luiz C. J. ; Giovanetti, Marta ; Gupta, Sunetra ; Lourenco, Jose</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c594t-46edc3e3fe0284bf1d3c8aae58eb493e413d8a29467aa64f27b1c4f4ad2b33ee3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>Age</topic><topic>Age Factors</topic><topic>Age factors in disease</topic><topic>Analysis</topic><topic>Antibodies</topic><topic>Coronaviridae</topic><topic>Coronavirus - classification</topic><topic>Coronavirus - immunology</topic><topic>Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology</topic><topic>Coronavirus Infections - immunology</topic><topic>Coronavirus Infections - therapy</topic><topic>Coronaviruses</topic><topic>COVID-19</topic><topic>COVID-19 - epidemiology</topic><topic>COVID-19 - immunology</topic><topic>COVID-19 - physiopathology</topic><topic>Cross Protection - immunology</topic><topic>Cross Reactions - immunology</topic><topic>Cross-protection</topic><topic>Cross-reactivity</topic><topic>Data interpretation</topic><topic>Disease transmission</topic><topic>Endemic coronaviruses</topic><topic>Endemic Diseases</topic><topic>Epidemics</topic><topic>Epidemiology</topic><topic>Exposure</topic><topic>Fatalities</topic><topic>General & Internal Medicine</topic><topic>Health aspects</topic><topic>Health care</topic><topic>Health risks</topic><topic>Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Illnesses</topic><topic>Immunity, Heterologous - immunology</topic><topic>Immunopathology</topic><topic>Infections</topic><topic>Life Sciences & Biomedicine</topic><topic>Mathematical model</topic><topic>Mathematical models</topic><topic>Medical research</topic><topic>Medicine, Experimental</topic><topic>Medicine, General & Internal</topic><topic>Patient-Specific Modeling</topic><topic>Physiological aspects</topic><topic>Population</topic><topic>Reactivity</topic><topic>SARS-CoV-2</topic><topic>SARS-CoV-2 - immunology</topic><topic>Science & Technology</topic><topic>Severe acute respiratory syndrome</topic><topic>Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</topic><topic>Severity of Illness Index</topic><topic>Viral diseases</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Pinotti, Francesco</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wikramaratna, Paul S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Obolski, Uri</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Paton, Robert S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Damineli, Daniel S. C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Alcantara, Luiz C. J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Giovanetti, Marta</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gupta, Sunetra</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lourenco, Jose</creatorcontrib><collection>Web of Science Core Collection</collection><collection>Science Citation Index Expanded</collection><collection>Web of Science - Science Citation Index Expanded - 2021</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>Coronavirus Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Medical Database</collection><collection>Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)</collection><collection>Access via ProQuest (Open Access)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><collection>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><jtitle>BMC medicine</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Pinotti, Francesco</au><au>Wikramaratna, Paul S.</au><au>Obolski, Uri</au><au>Paton, Robert S.</au><au>Damineli, Daniel S. C.</au><au>Alcantara, Luiz C. J.</au><au>Giovanetti, Marta</au><au>Gupta, Sunetra</au><au>Lourenco, Jose</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19</atitle><jtitle>BMC medicine</jtitle><stitle>BMC MED</stitle><addtitle>BMC Med</addtitle><date>2021-01-12</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>19</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>19</spage><epage>19</epage><pages>19-19</pages><artnum>19</artnum><issn>1741-7015</issn><eissn>1741-7015</eissn><abstract>Background Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection. Results We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-exposure to the same eHCoV diminishes cross-protection, and increases the potential for disease severity. We show numerically that our proposed mechanism can explain age patterns of COVID-19 hospitalisation in EU/EEA countries and the UK. We further show that some of the observed variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates under this model. Conclusions This study provides a "proof of possibility" for certain biological and epidemiological mechanisms that could potentially drive COVID-19-related variation across age groups. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to eHCoVs and highlight data interpretation challenges arising from health care capacity and SARS-CoV-2 testing.</abstract><cop>LONDON</cop><pub>Springer Nature</pub><pmid>33430856</pmid><doi>10.1186/s12916-020-01887-1</doi><tpages>12</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1953-2106</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9318-2581</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Age Age Factors Age factors in disease Analysis Antibodies Coronaviridae Coronavirus - classification Coronavirus - immunology Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology Coronavirus Infections - immunology Coronavirus Infections - therapy Coronaviruses COVID-19 COVID-19 - epidemiology COVID-19 - immunology COVID-19 - physiopathology Cross Protection - immunology Cross Reactions - immunology Cross-protection Cross-reactivity Data interpretation Disease transmission Endemic coronaviruses Endemic Diseases Epidemics Epidemiology Exposure Fatalities General & Internal Medicine Health aspects Health care Health risks Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data Humans Illnesses Immunity, Heterologous - immunology Immunopathology Infections Life Sciences & Biomedicine Mathematical model Mathematical models Medical research Medicine, Experimental Medicine, General & Internal Patient-Specific Modeling Physiological aspects Population Reactivity SARS-CoV-2 SARS-CoV-2 - immunology Science & Technology Severe acute respiratory syndrome Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Severity of Illness Index Viral diseases |
| title | Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19 |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2024-12-14T12%3A10%3A15IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-gale_proqu&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Potential%20impact%20of%20individual%20exposure%20histories%20to%20endemic%20human%20coronaviruses%20on%20age-dependent%20severity%20of%20COVID-19&rft.jtitle=BMC%20medicine&rft.au=Pinotti,%20Francesco&rft.date=2021-01-12&rft.volume=19&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=19&rft.epage=19&rft.pages=19-19&rft.artnum=19&rft.issn=1741-7015&rft.eissn=1741-7015&rft_id=info:doi/10.1186/s12916-020-01887-1&rft_dat=%3Cgale_proqu%3EA653677714%3C/gale_proqu%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2478750611&rft_id=info:pmid/33430856&rft_galeid=A653677714&rft_doaj_id=oai_doaj_org_article_1593490f9e784f98bbea2210df9df92f&rfr_iscdi=true |