Impact of antiviral therapy on risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis B

Aim Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development are available. However, the influence of antiviral therapy (AVT) on these models in patients with chronic hepatitis B is unknown. Methods The dynamic changes in risk prediction models during AVT and the association between risk prediction model and the risk of chronic hepatitis B‐related HCC development were investigated. Between 2005 and 2017, 4917 patients with chronic hepatitis B (3361 noncirrhotic, 1556 cirrhotic) were recruited. Results The mean age of the study population was 49.3 years and 60.6% (n = 2980) of the patients were male. The mean Chinese University‐HCC (CU‐HCC) score was 12.7 at baseline in the overall study population, and decreased significantly (mean, 8.7) after 1 year of AVT (p 0.05). The proportion of high‐risk patients (CU‐HCC score ≥ 20) was 28.9% at baseline, and decreased significantly after 1 year of AVT (5.0%; p 0.05). In addition to the score at baseline, the CU‐HCC score at 1 year of AVT independently predicted the risk of HCC development (hazard ratio = 1.072; p