Pandemics and environmental shocks: What aviation managers should learn from COVID-19 for long-term planning

This article gives guidance to aviation managers being struck by environmental shocks. The introduced frameworks support aviation managers to think strategically during times of shocks and help them to prepare for future shocks by developing more resilient and learning organizations. Practical, short-term recommendations include strategically orienting or reorienting and not exaggerating the current, short-term developments due to unproductive uncertainty. Further, and to prepare for future shocks, the results of this study suggest that aviation managers should develop a common strategy language, introduce uncertainty as a standard factor for long-term planning, manage uncertainty proactively and make long-term plans accordingly by fostering a dialogue with various stake- and shareholders, being aware of the strategy tools in use, making the board a co-creating team and introducing a three-step process in sensing, seizing and transforming the organization accordingly. [Display omitted] •During a shock, aviation managers should be aware of the following: 1. Strategically orient or reorient with a turnaround strategy of retrenchment or recovery, and 2. Not exaggerate the current, short-term developments, because of unproductive uncertainty:•To prepare for future environmental shocks, aviation managers should embrace the following: 1. Develop a common strategy language, introduce uncertainty as a standard factor for long-term planning, manage uncertainty proactively and make long-term plans accordingly. 2. Foster a continuous dialogue with formal & informal strategy meetings on various levels of the organization and with various stake- and shareholders. 3. Be aware of the strategy tools being used, they might be vital for the success of long-term planning and other organizational outcomes. 4. Make the board a co-creating team. If the board does not have the necessary capabilities and experience, compose it differently and diversely. 5. Introduce a three-step process to embrace uncertainty in the organization by sensing changes, seizing opportunities, and transforming the organization accordingly.