Predictive Factors for Pre-operative Recurrence of Cerebrovascular Symptoms in Symptomatic Carotid Stenosis

Across stroke subtypes, carotid artery stroke carries the highest risk of recurrence. Despite initiation of best medical therapy (BMT), some patients suffer recurrent neurological events before undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA). The aim was to identify clinical predictors of early recurrent events in patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis (sCS) awaiting CEA on modern BMT. The Helsinki Carotid Endarterectomy Study 2 (HeCES2) is a cross sectional, longitudinal, prospective, and consecutive cohort study, which enrolled 500 symptomatic or asymptomatic patients with carotid stenosis scheduled for CEA in a tertiary stroke centre. Symptomatic patients were included for this analysis (n = 324). Of all 324 patients with sCS, 39 (12%) had a recurrent cerebrovascular event at a median of six days after the index symptom: four had an ischaemic stroke (1.2%), 16 a hemispheric transient ischaemic attack (TIA; 4.9%), and 19 amaurosis fugax (AFX; 5.9%). The recurrence rate was 4.0 % (n = 13) within 48 h and 9.9% (n = 32) within two weeks. None of the patients (n = 108) presenting with ocular symptoms (AFX or retinal artery occlusion) suffered recurrent hemispheric TIA or stroke. In Cox regression analysis, comorbid hypertension (hazard ratio [HR] 6.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33–32.47), hemispheric TIA as the index symptom (HR 3.42, 95% CI 1.70–6.90), the number of prior attacks (HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.08–1.15), and high low density lipoprotein/high density lipoprotein ratio (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.09–2.11) were independently associated with an increased risk of recurrent event, while a history of major cardiovascular event (HR 0.33, 95% CI 0.11–0.96) and high serum fibrinogen level (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.41–0.86) were associated with a decreased risk. More than every tenth patient with sCS experienced an early recurrent cerebrovascular event prior to scheduled CEA, despite optimal medication. However, stroke recurrence was lower than in earlier observational studies, which could be explained by improved care pathways, more aggressive medication, and expedited CEA. All recurrent strokes occurred in patients initially presenting with minor stroke.