Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Thermal Ablation
Purpose To develop an effective prognostic nomogram for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after thermal ablation. Methods A total of 772 patients with intrahepatic primary or recurrent HCC who underwent radiofrequency ablation or microwave ablation between March 2011 and October 2016 were...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Cardiovascular and interventional radiology 2020-11, Vol.43 (11), p.1621-1630 |
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| creator | Ding, Min Zhao, Xiaodong Zhao, Mingchen Shi, Yaoping Wang, Tao Cui, Dan Shi, Donghua Zhai, Bo |
| description | Purpose
To develop an effective prognostic nomogram for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after thermal ablation.
Methods
A total of 772 patients with intrahepatic primary or recurrent HCC who underwent radiofrequency ablation or microwave ablation between March 2011 and October 2016 were included. 602 patients (mean age, 56.0 ± 11.9 years; 495 male/107 female) were included in the primary cohort to establish a prognostic nomogram. Significant prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) identified by Cox univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to construct the nomogram. The remaining 170 patients (mean age, 55.9 ± 11.9 years; 145 male/25 female) were used to validate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram.
Results
During a mean follow-up period of 26 months (range 1–85 months), the median OS periods were 48.6 months and 44.0 months for the primary and validation cohorts. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 85.5%, 61.4%, and 43.3% in the primary cohort and 84.7%, 59.6%, and 43.3% in the prospective validation cohort, respectively. Multivariate analysis found that pre-ablation treatment, AFP, CEA, CA19-9, ALBI grade, tumor number, and tumor size (hazard ratio > 1,
P
|
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s00270-020-02617-z |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_2435755530</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>2471666345</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c375t-5d49d85c74e37051d362a6bb0ee2c47a0cddeb7fc303ea45e81910269fd4e90d3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp9kL1u2zAURomiQe04eYEOBYEuXZRc_onSaBhtEsBIMsRANoKirhwZkuiSEorm6UvHaQp0yEBw4Pk-3nsI-czgggHoywjANWTADydnOnv-QOZMCp5BkT9-JHNgWmZMKTYjpzHuAJgquPpEZoIXTJYlzMnmPvjt4OPYOnrre78NtqeND_Teji0OY6S_2vGJXuPejt5h102dDXRlg2sH31u6bEYM9OEJQ287uqy6FPPDGTlpbBfx_PVekM2P7w-r62x9d3WzWq4zJ7QaM1XLsi6U0xKFBsVqkXObVxUgcie1BVfXWOnGCRBopcKClSytWja1xBJqsSDfjr374H9OGEfTt_EwpR3QT9FwKZRWSqX8gnz9D935KQxpukRplue5kCpR_Ei54GMM2Jh9aHsbfhsG5iDdHKWbJN28SDfPKfTltXqqeqzfIn8tJ0AcgZiehi2Gf3-_U_sHi8KNVQ</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2471666345</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Thermal Ablation</title><source>MEDLINE</source><source>SpringerLink Journals</source><creator>Ding, Min ; Zhao, Xiaodong ; Zhao, Mingchen ; Shi, Yaoping ; Wang, Tao ; Cui, Dan ; Shi, Donghua ; Zhai, Bo</creator><creatorcontrib>Ding, Min ; Zhao, Xiaodong ; Zhao, Mingchen ; Shi, Yaoping ; Wang, Tao ; Cui, Dan ; Shi, Donghua ; Zhai, Bo</creatorcontrib><description>Purpose
To develop an effective prognostic nomogram for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after thermal ablation.
Methods
A total of 772 patients with intrahepatic primary or recurrent HCC who underwent radiofrequency ablation or microwave ablation between March 2011 and October 2016 were included. 602 patients (mean age, 56.0 ± 11.9 years; 495 male/107 female) were included in the primary cohort to establish a prognostic nomogram. Significant prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) identified by Cox univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to construct the nomogram. The remaining 170 patients (mean age, 55.9 ± 11.9 years; 145 male/25 female) were used to validate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram.
Results
During a mean follow-up period of 26 months (range 1–85 months), the median OS periods were 48.6 months and 44.0 months for the primary and validation cohorts. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 85.5%, 61.4%, and 43.3% in the primary cohort and 84.7%, 59.6%, and 43.3% in the prospective validation cohort, respectively. Multivariate analysis found that pre-ablation treatment, AFP, CEA, CA19-9, ALBI grade, tumor number, and tumor size (hazard ratio > 1,
P
< 0.05) were independent risk factors for OS. A nomogram was developed based on these seven variables. The calibration curve for predicting the probability of survival showed a good agreement between the nomogram and actual observation both in the primary (concrete index: 0.699) and validation cohorts (concrete index: 0.734).
Conclusions
This simple nomogram based on seven variables including ALBI grade offers personalized prognostic data for HCC patients after ablation.
Level of Evidence
Level 4, case series.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0174-1551</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1432-086X</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s00270-020-02617-z</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32814990</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>New York: Springer US</publisher><subject>Ablation ; Ablation Techniques - methods ; Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Calibration ; Carcinoma, Hepatocellular - diagnosis ; Carcinoma, Hepatocellular - mortality ; Carcinoma, Hepatocellular - therapy ; Cardiology ; China ; Clinical Investigation ; Female ; Hepatocellular carcinoma ; Humans ; Imaging ; Interventional Oncology ; Liver cancer ; Liver Neoplasms - diagnosis ; Liver Neoplasms - mortality ; Liver Neoplasms - therapy ; Male ; Medical prognosis ; Medicine ; Medicine & Public Health ; Middle Aged ; Multivariate analysis ; Neoplasm Staging ; Nomograms ; Nuclear Medicine ; Prognosis ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Prospective Studies ; Radio frequency ; Radiology ; Risk analysis ; Risk Factors ; Statistical analysis ; Survival ; Survival Rate - trends ; Tumors ; Ultrasound ; Young Adult</subject><ispartof>Cardiovascular and interventional radiology, 2020-11, Vol.43 (11), p.1621-1630</ispartof><rights>Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature and the Cardiovascular and Interventional Radiological Society of Europe (CIRSE) 2020</rights><rights>Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature and the Cardiovascular and Interventional Radiological Society of Europe (CIRSE) 2020.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c375t-5d49d85c74e37051d362a6bb0ee2c47a0cddeb7fc303ea45e81910269fd4e90d3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c375t-5d49d85c74e37051d362a6bb0ee2c47a0cddeb7fc303ea45e81910269fd4e90d3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00270-020-02617-z$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00270-020-02617-z$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27901,27902,41464,42533,51294</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32814990$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Ding, Min</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhao, Xiaodong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhao, Mingchen</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shi, Yaoping</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Tao</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cui, Dan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shi, Donghua</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhai, Bo</creatorcontrib><title>Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Thermal Ablation</title><title>Cardiovascular and interventional radiology</title><addtitle>Cardiovasc Intervent Radiol</addtitle><addtitle>Cardiovasc Intervent Radiol</addtitle><description>Purpose
To develop an effective prognostic nomogram for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after thermal ablation.
Methods
A total of 772 patients with intrahepatic primary or recurrent HCC who underwent radiofrequency ablation or microwave ablation between March 2011 and October 2016 were included. 602 patients (mean age, 56.0 ± 11.9 years; 495 male/107 female) were included in the primary cohort to establish a prognostic nomogram. Significant prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) identified by Cox univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to construct the nomogram. The remaining 170 patients (mean age, 55.9 ± 11.9 years; 145 male/25 female) were used to validate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram.
Results
During a mean follow-up period of 26 months (range 1–85 months), the median OS periods were 48.6 months and 44.0 months for the primary and validation cohorts. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 85.5%, 61.4%, and 43.3% in the primary cohort and 84.7%, 59.6%, and 43.3% in the prospective validation cohort, respectively. Multivariate analysis found that pre-ablation treatment, AFP, CEA, CA19-9, ALBI grade, tumor number, and tumor size (hazard ratio > 1,
P
< 0.05) were independent risk factors for OS. A nomogram was developed based on these seven variables. The calibration curve for predicting the probability of survival showed a good agreement between the nomogram and actual observation both in the primary (concrete index: 0.699) and validation cohorts (concrete index: 0.734).
Conclusions
This simple nomogram based on seven variables including ALBI grade offers personalized prognostic data for HCC patients after ablation.
Level of Evidence
Level 4, case series.</description><subject>Ablation</subject><subject>Ablation Techniques - methods</subject><subject>Adolescent</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Aged, 80 and over</subject><subject>Calibration</subject><subject>Carcinoma, Hepatocellular - diagnosis</subject><subject>Carcinoma, Hepatocellular - mortality</subject><subject>Carcinoma, Hepatocellular - therapy</subject><subject>Cardiology</subject><subject>China</subject><subject>Clinical Investigation</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Hepatocellular carcinoma</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Imaging</subject><subject>Interventional Oncology</subject><subject>Liver cancer</subject><subject>Liver Neoplasms - diagnosis</subject><subject>Liver Neoplasms - mortality</subject><subject>Liver Neoplasms - therapy</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Medical prognosis</subject><subject>Medicine</subject><subject>Medicine & Public Health</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Multivariate analysis</subject><subject>Neoplasm Staging</subject><subject>Nomograms</subject><subject>Nuclear Medicine</subject><subject>Prognosis</subject><subject>Proportional Hazards Models</subject><subject>Prospective Studies</subject><subject>Radio frequency</subject><subject>Radiology</subject><subject>Risk analysis</subject><subject>Risk Factors</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Survival</subject><subject>Survival Rate - trends</subject><subject>Tumors</subject><subject>Ultrasound</subject><subject>Young Adult</subject><issn>0174-1551</issn><issn>1432-086X</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kL1u2zAURomiQe04eYEOBYEuXZRc_onSaBhtEsBIMsRANoKirhwZkuiSEorm6UvHaQp0yEBw4Pk-3nsI-czgggHoywjANWTADydnOnv-QOZMCp5BkT9-JHNgWmZMKTYjpzHuAJgquPpEZoIXTJYlzMnmPvjt4OPYOnrre78NtqeND_Teji0OY6S_2vGJXuPejt5h102dDXRlg2sH31u6bEYM9OEJQ287uqy6FPPDGTlpbBfx_PVekM2P7w-r62x9d3WzWq4zJ7QaM1XLsi6U0xKFBsVqkXObVxUgcie1BVfXWOnGCRBopcKClSytWja1xBJqsSDfjr374H9OGEfTt_EwpR3QT9FwKZRWSqX8gnz9D935KQxpukRplue5kCpR_Ei54GMM2Jh9aHsbfhsG5iDdHKWbJN28SDfPKfTltXqqeqzfIn8tJ0AcgZiehi2Gf3-_U_sHi8KNVQ</recordid><startdate>20201101</startdate><enddate>20201101</enddate><creator>Ding, Min</creator><creator>Zhao, Xiaodong</creator><creator>Zhao, Mingchen</creator><creator>Shi, Yaoping</creator><creator>Wang, Tao</creator><creator>Cui, Dan</creator><creator>Shi, Donghua</creator><creator>Zhai, Bo</creator><general>Springer US</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7RV</scope><scope>7TO</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>KB0</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20201101</creationdate><title>Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Thermal Ablation</title><author>Ding, Min ; 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To develop an effective prognostic nomogram for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after thermal ablation.
Methods
A total of 772 patients with intrahepatic primary or recurrent HCC who underwent radiofrequency ablation or microwave ablation between March 2011 and October 2016 were included. 602 patients (mean age, 56.0 ± 11.9 years; 495 male/107 female) were included in the primary cohort to establish a prognostic nomogram. Significant prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) identified by Cox univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to construct the nomogram. The remaining 170 patients (mean age, 55.9 ± 11.9 years; 145 male/25 female) were used to validate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram.
Results
During a mean follow-up period of 26 months (range 1–85 months), the median OS periods were 48.6 months and 44.0 months for the primary and validation cohorts. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 85.5%, 61.4%, and 43.3% in the primary cohort and 84.7%, 59.6%, and 43.3% in the prospective validation cohort, respectively. Multivariate analysis found that pre-ablation treatment, AFP, CEA, CA19-9, ALBI grade, tumor number, and tumor size (hazard ratio > 1,
P
< 0.05) were independent risk factors for OS. A nomogram was developed based on these seven variables. The calibration curve for predicting the probability of survival showed a good agreement between the nomogram and actual observation both in the primary (concrete index: 0.699) and validation cohorts (concrete index: 0.734).
Conclusions
This simple nomogram based on seven variables including ALBI grade offers personalized prognostic data for HCC patients after ablation.
Level of Evidence
Level 4, case series.</abstract><cop>New York</cop><pub>Springer US</pub><pmid>32814990</pmid><doi>10.1007/s00270-020-02617-z</doi><tpages>10</tpages></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Ablation Ablation Techniques - methods Adolescent Adult Aged Aged, 80 and over Calibration Carcinoma, Hepatocellular - diagnosis Carcinoma, Hepatocellular - mortality Carcinoma, Hepatocellular - therapy Cardiology China Clinical Investigation Female Hepatocellular carcinoma Humans Imaging Interventional Oncology Liver cancer Liver Neoplasms - diagnosis Liver Neoplasms - mortality Liver Neoplasms - therapy Male Medical prognosis Medicine Medicine & Public Health Middle Aged Multivariate analysis Neoplasm Staging Nomograms Nuclear Medicine Prognosis Proportional Hazards Models Prospective Studies Radio frequency Radiology Risk analysis Risk Factors Statistical analysis Survival Survival Rate - trends Tumors Ultrasound Young Adult |
| title | Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Thermal Ablation |
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