Projecting the effects of agricultural conservation practices on stream fish communities in a changing climate
How anticipated climate change might affect long-term outcomes of present-day agricultural conservation practices remains a key uncertainty that could benefit water quality and biodiversity conservation planning. To explore this issue, we forecasted how the stream fish communities in the Western Lak...
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creator | Fraker, Michael E. Keitzer, S. Conor Sinclair, James S. Aloysius, Noel R. Dippold, David A. Yen, Haw Arnold, Jeffrey G. Daggupati, Prasad Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V. Martin, Jay F. Robertson, Dale M. Sowa, Scott P. White, Michael J. Ludsin, Stuart A. |
description | How anticipated climate change might affect long-term outcomes of present-day agricultural conservation practices remains a key uncertainty that could benefit water quality and biodiversity conservation planning. To explore this issue, we forecasted how the stream fish communities in the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) would respond to increasing amounts of agricultural conservation practice (ACP) implementation under two IPCC future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5: moderate reductions; RCP8.5: business-as-usual conditions) during 2020–2065. We used output from 19 General Circulation Models to drive linked agricultural land use (APEX), watershed hydrology (SWAT), and stream fish distribution (boosted regression tree) models, subsequently analyzing how projected changes in habitat would influence fish community composition and functional trait diversity. Our models predicted both positive and negative effects of climate change and ACP implementation on WLEB stream fishes. For most species, climate and ACPs influenced species in the same direction, with climate effects outweighing those of ACP implementation. Functional trait analysis helped clarify the varied responses among species, indicating that more extreme climate change would reduce available habitat for large-bodied, cool-water species with equilibrium life-histories, many of which also are of importance to recreational fishing (e.g., northern pike, smallmouth bass). By contrast, available habitat for warm-water, benthic species with more periodic or opportunistic life-histories (e.g., northern hogsucker, greater redhorse, greenside darter) was predicted to increase. Further, ACP implementation was projected to hasten these shifts, suggesting that efforts to improve water quality could come with costs to other ecosystem services (e.g., recreational fishing opportunities). Collectively, our findings demonstrate the need to consider biological outcomes when developing strategies to mitigate water quality impairment and highlight the value of physical-biological modeling approaches to agricultural and biological conservation planning in a changing climate.
[Display omitted]
•How climate change will affect present-day conservation efforts remains uncertain.•We projected the effects of climate and land use change on Lake Erie stream fishes.•Anticipated climate change will modify fish responses to agricultural conservation.•Shifts in species and trait composition may lead to ecosystem service tra |
doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141112 |
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[Display omitted]
•How climate change will affect present-day conservation efforts remains uncertain.•We projected the effects of climate and land use change on Lake Erie stream fishes.•Anticipated climate change will modify fish responses to agricultural conservation.•Shifts in species and trait composition may lead to ecosystem service tradeoffs.•Our results highlight the value of biophysical modeling in conservation planning.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0048-9697</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1879-1026</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141112</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Elsevier B.V</publisher><subject>Best management practice ; Coupled natural and human system ; General Circulation Model ; Multiple stressors ; Species distribution model ; Trait analysis</subject><ispartof>The Science of the total environment, 2020-12, Vol.747, p.141112-141112, Article 141112</ispartof><rights>2020 The Authors</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c397t-3d3b31bc8f1567f2d259e82b18a26014249a47527668d36935f056332480fab63</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c397t-3d3b31bc8f1567f2d259e82b18a26014249a47527668d36935f056332480fab63</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-7044-3435 ; 0000-0002-3866-2216 ; 0000-0002-5509-8792</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141112$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,3550,27924,27925,45995</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Fraker, Michael E.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Keitzer, S. Conor</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sinclair, James S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Aloysius, Noel R.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dippold, David A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yen, Haw</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Arnold, Jeffrey G.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Daggupati, Prasad</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Martin, Jay F.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Robertson, Dale M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sowa, Scott P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>White, Michael J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ludsin, Stuart A.</creatorcontrib><title>Projecting the effects of agricultural conservation practices on stream fish communities in a changing climate</title><title>The Science of the total environment</title><description>How anticipated climate change might affect long-term outcomes of present-day agricultural conservation practices remains a key uncertainty that could benefit water quality and biodiversity conservation planning. To explore this issue, we forecasted how the stream fish communities in the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) would respond to increasing amounts of agricultural conservation practice (ACP) implementation under two IPCC future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5: moderate reductions; RCP8.5: business-as-usual conditions) during 2020–2065. We used output from 19 General Circulation Models to drive linked agricultural land use (APEX), watershed hydrology (SWAT), and stream fish distribution (boosted regression tree) models, subsequently analyzing how projected changes in habitat would influence fish community composition and functional trait diversity. Our models predicted both positive and negative effects of climate change and ACP implementation on WLEB stream fishes. For most species, climate and ACPs influenced species in the same direction, with climate effects outweighing those of ACP implementation. Functional trait analysis helped clarify the varied responses among species, indicating that more extreme climate change would reduce available habitat for large-bodied, cool-water species with equilibrium life-histories, many of which also are of importance to recreational fishing (e.g., northern pike, smallmouth bass). By contrast, available habitat for warm-water, benthic species with more periodic or opportunistic life-histories (e.g., northern hogsucker, greater redhorse, greenside darter) was predicted to increase. Further, ACP implementation was projected to hasten these shifts, suggesting that efforts to improve water quality could come with costs to other ecosystem services (e.g., recreational fishing opportunities). Collectively, our findings demonstrate the need to consider biological outcomes when developing strategies to mitigate water quality impairment and highlight the value of physical-biological modeling approaches to agricultural and biological conservation planning in a changing climate.
[Display omitted]
•How climate change will affect present-day conservation efforts remains uncertain.•We projected the effects of climate and land use change on Lake Erie stream fishes.•Anticipated climate change will modify fish responses to agricultural conservation.•Shifts in species and trait composition may lead to ecosystem service tradeoffs.•Our results highlight the value of biophysical modeling in conservation planning.</description><subject>Best management practice</subject><subject>Coupled natural and human system</subject><subject>General Circulation Model</subject><subject>Multiple stressors</subject><subject>Species distribution model</subject><subject>Trait analysis</subject><issn>0048-9697</issn><issn>1879-1026</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqFkM1uGyEURlHVSnWTPkNZdjMufwPMMoqaplKkZJGsEWYuNtYMuMBYytuHkaNuwwYB5_t0OQj9oGRLCZW_jtviQk0V4nnLCGu3glLKPqEN1WroKGHyM9oQInQ3yEF9Rd9KOZK2lKYbFJ9yOoKrIe5xPQAG79up4OSx3efglqku2U7YpVggn20NKeJTti3hoGERl5rBztiHcmjUPC8x1NCeQsQWu4ON-7XbTWG2Fa7RF2-nAt_f9yv0cvf7-fa-e3j88_f25qFzfFC14yPfcbpz2tNeKs9G1g-g2Y5qyyShgonBCtUzJaUeuRx470kvOWdCE293kl-hn5feU07_FijVzKE4mCYbIS3FMMGFUESLFVUX1OVUSgZvTrnNml8NJWY1bI7mv2GzGjYXwy15c0lC-8k5QF45iA7GkJtEM6bwYccb6kmJ7Q</recordid><startdate>20201210</startdate><enddate>20201210</enddate><creator>Fraker, Michael E.</creator><creator>Keitzer, S. 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Conor ; Sinclair, James S. ; Aloysius, Noel R. ; Dippold, David A. ; Yen, Haw ; Arnold, Jeffrey G. ; Daggupati, Prasad ; Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V. ; Martin, Jay F. ; Robertson, Dale M. ; Sowa, Scott P. ; White, Michael J. ; Ludsin, Stuart A.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c397t-3d3b31bc8f1567f2d259e82b18a26014249a47527668d36935f056332480fab63</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Best management practice</topic><topic>Coupled natural and human system</topic><topic>General Circulation Model</topic><topic>Multiple stressors</topic><topic>Species distribution model</topic><topic>Trait analysis</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Fraker, Michael E.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Keitzer, S. Conor</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sinclair, James S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Aloysius, Noel R.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dippold, David A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yen, Haw</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Arnold, Jeffrey G.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Daggupati, Prasad</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Martin, Jay F.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Robertson, Dale M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sowa, Scott P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>White, Michael J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ludsin, Stuart A.</creatorcontrib><collection>ScienceDirect Open Access Titles</collection><collection>Elsevier:ScienceDirect:Open Access</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>The Science of the total environment</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Fraker, Michael E.</au><au>Keitzer, S. Conor</au><au>Sinclair, James S.</au><au>Aloysius, Noel R.</au><au>Dippold, David A.</au><au>Yen, Haw</au><au>Arnold, Jeffrey G.</au><au>Daggupati, Prasad</au><au>Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V.</au><au>Martin, Jay F.</au><au>Robertson, Dale M.</au><au>Sowa, Scott P.</au><au>White, Michael J.</au><au>Ludsin, Stuart A.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Projecting the effects of agricultural conservation practices on stream fish communities in a changing climate</atitle><jtitle>The Science of the total environment</jtitle><date>2020-12-10</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>747</volume><spage>141112</spage><epage>141112</epage><pages>141112-141112</pages><artnum>141112</artnum><issn>0048-9697</issn><eissn>1879-1026</eissn><abstract>How anticipated climate change might affect long-term outcomes of present-day agricultural conservation practices remains a key uncertainty that could benefit water quality and biodiversity conservation planning. To explore this issue, we forecasted how the stream fish communities in the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) would respond to increasing amounts of agricultural conservation practice (ACP) implementation under two IPCC future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5: moderate reductions; RCP8.5: business-as-usual conditions) during 2020–2065. We used output from 19 General Circulation Models to drive linked agricultural land use (APEX), watershed hydrology (SWAT), and stream fish distribution (boosted regression tree) models, subsequently analyzing how projected changes in habitat would influence fish community composition and functional trait diversity. Our models predicted both positive and negative effects of climate change and ACP implementation on WLEB stream fishes. For most species, climate and ACPs influenced species in the same direction, with climate effects outweighing those of ACP implementation. Functional trait analysis helped clarify the varied responses among species, indicating that more extreme climate change would reduce available habitat for large-bodied, cool-water species with equilibrium life-histories, many of which also are of importance to recreational fishing (e.g., northern pike, smallmouth bass). By contrast, available habitat for warm-water, benthic species with more periodic or opportunistic life-histories (e.g., northern hogsucker, greater redhorse, greenside darter) was predicted to increase. Further, ACP implementation was projected to hasten these shifts, suggesting that efforts to improve water quality could come with costs to other ecosystem services (e.g., recreational fishing opportunities). Collectively, our findings demonstrate the need to consider biological outcomes when developing strategies to mitigate water quality impairment and highlight the value of physical-biological modeling approaches to agricultural and biological conservation planning in a changing climate.
[Display omitted]
•How climate change will affect present-day conservation efforts remains uncertain.•We projected the effects of climate and land use change on Lake Erie stream fishes.•Anticipated climate change will modify fish responses to agricultural conservation.•Shifts in species and trait composition may lead to ecosystem service tradeoffs.•Our results highlight the value of biophysical modeling in conservation planning.</abstract><pub>Elsevier B.V</pub><doi>10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141112</doi><tpages>1</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7044-3435</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3866-2216</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5509-8792</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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subjects | Best management practice Coupled natural and human system General Circulation Model Multiple stressors Species distribution model Trait analysis |
title | Projecting the effects of agricultural conservation practices on stream fish communities in a changing climate |
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