Sink or Swim? A survival analysis of sport dropout in Australian youth swimmers
Objectives To examine long‐term participation and dropout rates in Australian youth swimming using survival analyses and to determine whether multiple individual, socio‐demographic, and competition‐related factors influenced dropout. Design Retrospective cohort study of registration and competitive...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | Scandinavian journal of medicine & science in sports 2020-11, Vol.30 (11), p.2222-2233 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | 2233 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 11 |
| container_start_page | 2222 |
| container_title | Scandinavian journal of medicine & science in sports |
| container_volume | 30 |
| creator | Moulds, Kylie Abbott, Shaun Pion, Johan Brophy‐Williams, Cecilia Heathcote, Mark Cobley, Stephen |
| description | Objectives
To examine long‐term participation and dropout rates in Australian youth swimming using survival analyses and to determine whether multiple individual, socio‐demographic, and competition‐related factors influenced dropout.
Design
Retrospective cohort study of registration and competitive performance data.
Methods
Part 1—Registration data from N = 17 161 female (n = 9400) and male (n = 7761) New South Wales (NSW) swimmers aged 10‐15 years (inclusive). Part 2—Competition level involvement in a subsample of female (n = 1011) and male (n = 811) swimmers, aged 12‐15 years, was also examined. To determine dropout rates and influential factors, Kaplan‐Meier survival analyses supplemented by Cox regression were used.
Results
(1) Kaplan‐Meier analyses identified median sustained participation rates of four years (95% CI = 3.93‐4.06), with 15.9% maintaining participation over 10 years. Cox regressions identified age‐group was associated with dropout (P |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1111/sms.13771 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_2424443589</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>2450713271</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3531-99d91ab828877f6ea9d007aed980e08fb513488261579197e596ad679517e13d3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp1kE1LAzEQhoMotlYP_gEJeNHDtslms0lOUopfUOmhel7SbhZTdzc1s9vSf2_qVg-CA8PA8MwD8yJ0ScmQhhpBBUPKhKBHqE9TQiIimTxGfaIIjwSVsofOAFaEUKESfop6LE5TSRjvo9nc1h_YeTzf2uoOjzG0fmM3usS61uUOLGBXYFg73-Dcu7VrG2xrPG6h8bq0usa7sHrHEM4r4-EcnRS6BHNxmAP09nD_OnmKprPH58l4Gi0ZZzRSKldUL2QspRBFarTKCRHa5EoSQ2Sx4JQlUsYp5UJRJQxXqc5ToTgVhrKcDdBN511799kaaLLKwtKUpa6NayGLkzhJEsalCuj1H3TlWh--21OcCMri0AN021FL7wC8KbK1t5X2u4ySbJ9yFlLOvlMO7NXB2C4qk_-SP7EGYNQBW1ua3f-mbP4y75RfMLCEoA</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2450713271</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Sink or Swim? A survival analysis of sport dropout in Australian youth swimmers</title><source>MEDLINE</source><source>Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete</source><creator>Moulds, Kylie ; Abbott, Shaun ; Pion, Johan ; Brophy‐Williams, Cecilia ; Heathcote, Mark ; Cobley, Stephen</creator><creatorcontrib>Moulds, Kylie ; Abbott, Shaun ; Pion, Johan ; Brophy‐Williams, Cecilia ; Heathcote, Mark ; Cobley, Stephen</creatorcontrib><description>Objectives
To examine long‐term participation and dropout rates in Australian youth swimming using survival analyses and to determine whether multiple individual, socio‐demographic, and competition‐related factors influenced dropout.
Design
Retrospective cohort study of registration and competitive performance data.
Methods
Part 1—Registration data from N = 17 161 female (n = 9400) and male (n = 7761) New South Wales (NSW) swimmers aged 10‐15 years (inclusive). Part 2—Competition level involvement in a subsample of female (n = 1011) and male (n = 811) swimmers, aged 12‐15 years, was also examined. To determine dropout rates and influential factors, Kaplan‐Meier survival analyses supplemented by Cox regression were used.
Results
(1) Kaplan‐Meier analyses identified median sustained participation rates of four years (95% CI = 3.93‐4.06), with 15.9% maintaining participation over 10 years. Cox regressions identified age‐group was associated with dropout (P < .001), with a 184.9% higher Hazard Rate (HR) for 10‐ vs 15‐year‐olds. Residential proximity to major cities was associated with dropout (P < .001), with urban swimmers reporting a 24.8% higher HR rate than rural swimmers. Sex and relative age were not associated with dropout. (2) The subsample median sustained participation was five years (95% CI = 4.79‐5.20), with 25.3% maintaining participation for ten years. Level of competition was associated (P < .001), with an 86% higher HR when considering lower competition levels (ie, club/district v national).
Conclusion
In a large representative sample of swimmers, survival analyses identified age‐group, competition level, and city proximity were associated with increased swimming dropout rates.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0905-7188</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1600-0838</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1111/sms.13771</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32668035</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Denmark: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><subject>Adolescent ; Age Factors ; Child ; Competitive Behavior ; Female ; Humans ; Kaplan-Meier Estimate ; Male ; New South Wales ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Retrospective Studies ; Rural Population ; Sex Factors ; Social Participation ; Socioeconomic Factors ; sport cessation ; sport participation ; Survival analysis ; Swimming ; Swimming - psychology ; time to event ; Urban Population ; youth competition</subject><ispartof>Scandinavian journal of medicine & science in sports, 2020-11, Vol.30 (11), p.2222-2233</ispartof><rights>2020 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd</rights><rights>2020 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</rights><rights>Copyright © 2020 John Wiley & Sons A/S</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3531-99d91ab828877f6ea9d007aed980e08fb513488261579197e596ad679517e13d3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3531-99d91ab828877f6ea9d007aed980e08fb513488261579197e596ad679517e13d3</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-8445-6122 ; 0000-0002-6111-1033 ; 0000-0001-6099-392X</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111%2Fsms.13771$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111%2Fsms.13771$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,778,782,1414,27911,27912,45561,45562</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32668035$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Moulds, Kylie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Abbott, Shaun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pion, Johan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Brophy‐Williams, Cecilia</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Heathcote, Mark</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cobley, Stephen</creatorcontrib><title>Sink or Swim? A survival analysis of sport dropout in Australian youth swimmers</title><title>Scandinavian journal of medicine & science in sports</title><addtitle>Scand J Med Sci Sports</addtitle><description>Objectives
To examine long‐term participation and dropout rates in Australian youth swimming using survival analyses and to determine whether multiple individual, socio‐demographic, and competition‐related factors influenced dropout.
Design
Retrospective cohort study of registration and competitive performance data.
Methods
Part 1—Registration data from N = 17 161 female (n = 9400) and male (n = 7761) New South Wales (NSW) swimmers aged 10‐15 years (inclusive). Part 2—Competition level involvement in a subsample of female (n = 1011) and male (n = 811) swimmers, aged 12‐15 years, was also examined. To determine dropout rates and influential factors, Kaplan‐Meier survival analyses supplemented by Cox regression were used.
Results
(1) Kaplan‐Meier analyses identified median sustained participation rates of four years (95% CI = 3.93‐4.06), with 15.9% maintaining participation over 10 years. Cox regressions identified age‐group was associated with dropout (P < .001), with a 184.9% higher Hazard Rate (HR) for 10‐ vs 15‐year‐olds. Residential proximity to major cities was associated with dropout (P < .001), with urban swimmers reporting a 24.8% higher HR rate than rural swimmers. Sex and relative age were not associated with dropout. (2) The subsample median sustained participation was five years (95% CI = 4.79‐5.20), with 25.3% maintaining participation for ten years. Level of competition was associated (P < .001), with an 86% higher HR when considering lower competition levels (ie, club/district v national).
Conclusion
In a large representative sample of swimmers, survival analyses identified age‐group, competition level, and city proximity were associated with increased swimming dropout rates.</description><subject>Adolescent</subject><subject>Age Factors</subject><subject>Child</subject><subject>Competitive Behavior</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Kaplan-Meier Estimate</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>New South Wales</subject><subject>Proportional Hazards Models</subject><subject>Retrospective Studies</subject><subject>Rural Population</subject><subject>Sex Factors</subject><subject>Social Participation</subject><subject>Socioeconomic Factors</subject><subject>sport cessation</subject><subject>sport participation</subject><subject>Survival analysis</subject><subject>Swimming</subject><subject>Swimming - psychology</subject><subject>time to event</subject><subject>Urban Population</subject><subject>youth competition</subject><issn>0905-7188</issn><issn>1600-0838</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kE1LAzEQhoMotlYP_gEJeNHDtslms0lOUopfUOmhel7SbhZTdzc1s9vSf2_qVg-CA8PA8MwD8yJ0ScmQhhpBBUPKhKBHqE9TQiIimTxGfaIIjwSVsofOAFaEUKESfop6LE5TSRjvo9nc1h_YeTzf2uoOjzG0fmM3usS61uUOLGBXYFg73-Dcu7VrG2xrPG6h8bq0usa7sHrHEM4r4-EcnRS6BHNxmAP09nD_OnmKprPH58l4Gi0ZZzRSKldUL2QspRBFarTKCRHa5EoSQ2Sx4JQlUsYp5UJRJQxXqc5ToTgVhrKcDdBN511799kaaLLKwtKUpa6NayGLkzhJEsalCuj1H3TlWh--21OcCMri0AN021FL7wC8KbK1t5X2u4ySbJ9yFlLOvlMO7NXB2C4qk_-SP7EGYNQBW1ua3f-mbP4y75RfMLCEoA</recordid><startdate>202011</startdate><enddate>202011</enddate><creator>Moulds, Kylie</creator><creator>Abbott, Shaun</creator><creator>Pion, Johan</creator><creator>Brophy‐Williams, Cecilia</creator><creator>Heathcote, Mark</creator><creator>Cobley, Stephen</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7TS</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>7X8</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8445-6122</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6111-1033</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6099-392X</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>202011</creationdate><title>Sink or Swim? A survival analysis of sport dropout in Australian youth swimmers</title><author>Moulds, Kylie ; Abbott, Shaun ; Pion, Johan ; Brophy‐Williams, Cecilia ; Heathcote, Mark ; Cobley, Stephen</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c3531-99d91ab828877f6ea9d007aed980e08fb513488261579197e596ad679517e13d3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Adolescent</topic><topic>Age Factors</topic><topic>Child</topic><topic>Competitive Behavior</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Kaplan-Meier Estimate</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>New South Wales</topic><topic>Proportional Hazards Models</topic><topic>Retrospective Studies</topic><topic>Rural Population</topic><topic>Sex Factors</topic><topic>Social Participation</topic><topic>Socioeconomic Factors</topic><topic>sport cessation</topic><topic>sport participation</topic><topic>Survival analysis</topic><topic>Swimming</topic><topic>Swimming - psychology</topic><topic>time to event</topic><topic>Urban Population</topic><topic>youth competition</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Moulds, Kylie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Abbott, Shaun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pion, Johan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Brophy‐Williams, Cecilia</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Heathcote, Mark</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cobley, Stephen</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Physical Education Index</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Scandinavian journal of medicine & science in sports</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Moulds, Kylie</au><au>Abbott, Shaun</au><au>Pion, Johan</au><au>Brophy‐Williams, Cecilia</au><au>Heathcote, Mark</au><au>Cobley, Stephen</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Sink or Swim? A survival analysis of sport dropout in Australian youth swimmers</atitle><jtitle>Scandinavian journal of medicine & science in sports</jtitle><addtitle>Scand J Med Sci Sports</addtitle><date>2020-11</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>30</volume><issue>11</issue><spage>2222</spage><epage>2233</epage><pages>2222-2233</pages><issn>0905-7188</issn><eissn>1600-0838</eissn><abstract>Objectives
To examine long‐term participation and dropout rates in Australian youth swimming using survival analyses and to determine whether multiple individual, socio‐demographic, and competition‐related factors influenced dropout.
Design
Retrospective cohort study of registration and competitive performance data.
Methods
Part 1—Registration data from N = 17 161 female (n = 9400) and male (n = 7761) New South Wales (NSW) swimmers aged 10‐15 years (inclusive). Part 2—Competition level involvement in a subsample of female (n = 1011) and male (n = 811) swimmers, aged 12‐15 years, was also examined. To determine dropout rates and influential factors, Kaplan‐Meier survival analyses supplemented by Cox regression were used.
Results
(1) Kaplan‐Meier analyses identified median sustained participation rates of four years (95% CI = 3.93‐4.06), with 15.9% maintaining participation over 10 years. Cox regressions identified age‐group was associated with dropout (P < .001), with a 184.9% higher Hazard Rate (HR) for 10‐ vs 15‐year‐olds. Residential proximity to major cities was associated with dropout (P < .001), with urban swimmers reporting a 24.8% higher HR rate than rural swimmers. Sex and relative age were not associated with dropout. (2) The subsample median sustained participation was five years (95% CI = 4.79‐5.20), with 25.3% maintaining participation for ten years. Level of competition was associated (P < .001), with an 86% higher HR when considering lower competition levels (ie, club/district v national).
Conclusion
In a large representative sample of swimmers, survival analyses identified age‐group, competition level, and city proximity were associated with increased swimming dropout rates.</abstract><cop>Denmark</cop><pub>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</pub><pmid>32668035</pmid><doi>10.1111/sms.13771</doi><tpages>12</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8445-6122</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6111-1033</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6099-392X</orcidid></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0905-7188 |
| ispartof | Scandinavian journal of medicine & science in sports, 2020-11, Vol.30 (11), p.2222-2233 |
| issn | 0905-7188 1600-0838 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_2424443589 |
| source | MEDLINE; Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete |
| subjects | Adolescent Age Factors Child Competitive Behavior Female Humans Kaplan-Meier Estimate Male New South Wales Proportional Hazards Models Retrospective Studies Rural Population Sex Factors Social Participation Socioeconomic Factors sport cessation sport participation Survival analysis Swimming Swimming - psychology time to event Urban Population youth competition |
| title | Sink or Swim? A survival analysis of sport dropout in Australian youth swimmers |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-15T12%3A20%3A06IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Sink%20or%20Swim?%20A%20survival%20analysis%20of%20sport%20dropout%20in%20Australian%20youth%20swimmers&rft.jtitle=Scandinavian%20journal%20of%20medicine%20&%20science%20in%20sports&rft.au=Moulds,%20Kylie&rft.date=2020-11&rft.volume=30&rft.issue=11&rft.spage=2222&rft.epage=2233&rft.pages=2222-2233&rft.issn=0905-7188&rft.eissn=1600-0838&rft_id=info:doi/10.1111/sms.13771&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E2450713271%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2450713271&rft_id=info:pmid/32668035&rfr_iscdi=true |