Time-variant reproductive number of COVID-19 in Seoul, Korea
To estimate time-variant reproductive number (Rt) of coronavirus disease 19 based on either number of daily confirmed cases or their onset date to monitor effectiveness of quarantine policies. Using number of daily confirmed cases from January 23, 2020 to March 22, 2020 and their symptom onset date...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Epidemiology and health 2020-06, Vol.42, p.e2020047-e2020047 |
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| container_title | Epidemiology and health |
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| creator | Moon, Seong-Geun Kim, Yeon-Kyung Son, Woo-Sik Kim, Jong-Hoon Choi, Jungsoon Na, Baeg-Ju Park, Boyoung Choi, Bo Youl |
| description | To estimate time-variant reproductive number (Rt) of coronavirus disease 19 based on either number of daily confirmed cases or their onset date to monitor effectiveness of quarantine policies.
Using number of daily confirmed cases from January 23, 2020 to March 22, 2020 and their symptom onset date from the official website of the Seoul Metropolitan Government and the district office, we calculated Rt using program R's package "EpiEstim". For asymptomatic cases, their symptom onset date was considered as -2, -1, 0, +1, and +2 days of confirmed date.
Based on the information of 313 confirmed cases, the epidemic curve was shaped like 'propagated epidemic curve'. The daily Rt based on Rt_c peaked to 2.6 on February 20, 2020, then showed decreased trend and became |
| doi_str_mv | 10.4178/epih.e2020047 |
| format | Article |
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Using number of daily confirmed cases from January 23, 2020 to March 22, 2020 and their symptom onset date from the official website of the Seoul Metropolitan Government and the district office, we calculated Rt using program R's package "EpiEstim". For asymptomatic cases, their symptom onset date was considered as -2, -1, 0, +1, and +2 days of confirmed date.
Based on the information of 313 confirmed cases, the epidemic curve was shaped like 'propagated epidemic curve'. The daily Rt based on Rt_c peaked to 2.6 on February 20, 2020, then showed decreased trend and became <1.0 from March 3, 2020. Comparing both Rt from Rt_c and from the number of daily onset cases, we found that the pattern of changes was similar, although the variation of Rt was greater when using Rt_c. When we changed assumed onset date for asymptotic cases (-2 days to +2 days of the confirmed date), the results were comparable.
Rt can be estimated based on Rt_c which is available from daily report of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Estimation of Rt would be useful to continuously monitor the effectiveness of the quarantine policy at the city and province levels.</description><identifier>ISSN: 2092-7193</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2092-7193</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.4178/epih.e2020047</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32660220</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Korea (South): Korean Society of Epidemiology</publisher><subject>Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Basic Reproduction Number - statistics & numerical data ; Child ; communicable disease ; Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control ; COVID-19 ; Epidemics ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Pandemics - prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control ; Public Policy ; Quarantine ; seoul ; Seoul - epidemiology ; Time Factors ; Young Adult</subject><ispartof>Epidemiology and health, 2020-06, Vol.42, p.e2020047-e2020047</ispartof><rights>2020, Korean Society of Epidemiology 2020</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c453t-72407e1a0983beb5bd48a27abf6b7cf1ae600242de8683bb7c378432dc8d4bc63</citedby></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7644928/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7644928/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,724,777,781,861,882,2096,27905,27906,53772,53774</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32660220$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Moon, Seong-Geun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kim, Yeon-Kyung</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Son, Woo-Sik</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kim, Jong-Hoon</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Choi, Jungsoon</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Na, Baeg-Ju</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Park, Boyoung</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Choi, Bo Youl</creatorcontrib><title>Time-variant reproductive number of COVID-19 in Seoul, Korea</title><title>Epidemiology and health</title><addtitle>Epidemiol Health</addtitle><description>To estimate time-variant reproductive number (Rt) of coronavirus disease 19 based on either number of daily confirmed cases or their onset date to monitor effectiveness of quarantine policies.
Using number of daily confirmed cases from January 23, 2020 to March 22, 2020 and their symptom onset date from the official website of the Seoul Metropolitan Government and the district office, we calculated Rt using program R's package "EpiEstim". For asymptomatic cases, their symptom onset date was considered as -2, -1, 0, +1, and +2 days of confirmed date.
Based on the information of 313 confirmed cases, the epidemic curve was shaped like 'propagated epidemic curve'. The daily Rt based on Rt_c peaked to 2.6 on February 20, 2020, then showed decreased trend and became <1.0 from March 3, 2020. Comparing both Rt from Rt_c and from the number of daily onset cases, we found that the pattern of changes was similar, although the variation of Rt was greater when using Rt_c. When we changed assumed onset date for asymptotic cases (-2 days to +2 days of the confirmed date), the results were comparable.
Rt can be estimated based on Rt_c which is available from daily report of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Estimation of Rt would be useful to continuously monitor the effectiveness of the quarantine policy at the city and province levels.</description><subject>Adolescent</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Aged, 80 and over</subject><subject>Basic Reproduction Number - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Child</subject><subject>communicable disease</subject><subject>Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology</subject><subject>Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control</subject><subject>COVID-19</subject><subject>Epidemics</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Pandemics - prevention & control</subject><subject>Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology</subject><subject>Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control</subject><subject>Public Policy</subject><subject>Quarantine</subject><subject>seoul</subject><subject>Seoul - epidemiology</subject><subject>Time Factors</subject><subject>Young Adult</subject><issn>2092-7193</issn><issn>2092-7193</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>DOA</sourceid><recordid>eNpVkc1LwzAYh4MoOnRHr9KjB6v5apKCCDK_hoMdnF5Dkr7VjLaZaTvwv7dzKppLwpuHJ3nfH0LHBJ9zItUFrPzbOVBMMeZyB40ozmkqSc52_5wP0Lhtl3hYnEssyD46YFQITCkeocuFryFdm-hN0yURVjEUvev8GpKmry3EJJTJZP4yvUlJnvgmeYLQV2fJY4hgjtBeaaoWxt_7IXq-u11MHtLZ_H46uZ6ljmesSyXlWAIxOFfMgs1swZWh0thSWOlKYkBgTDktQImBGGpMKs5o4VTBrRPsEE233iKYpV5FX5v4oYPx-qsQ4qs2sfOuAl2WNhcyd4Ri4CZT1uQiE8xxyRgpso3rauta9baGwkHTRVP9k_6_afybfg1rLQXnOVWD4PRbEMN7D22na986qCrTDKNp9dAIU5gpKQc03aIuhraNUP4-Q7DeBKg3AeqfAAf-5O_ffumfuNgnghCVgw</recordid><startdate>20200628</startdate><enddate>20200628</enddate><creator>Moon, Seong-Geun</creator><creator>Kim, Yeon-Kyung</creator><creator>Son, Woo-Sik</creator><creator>Kim, Jong-Hoon</creator><creator>Choi, Jungsoon</creator><creator>Na, Baeg-Ju</creator><creator>Park, Boyoung</creator><creator>Choi, Bo Youl</creator><general>Korean Society of Epidemiology</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><scope>DOA</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20200628</creationdate><title>Time-variant reproductive number of COVID-19 in Seoul, Korea</title><author>Moon, Seong-Geun ; Kim, Yeon-Kyung ; Son, Woo-Sik ; Kim, Jong-Hoon ; Choi, Jungsoon ; Na, Baeg-Ju ; Park, Boyoung ; Choi, Bo Youl</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c453t-72407e1a0983beb5bd48a27abf6b7cf1ae600242de8683bb7c378432dc8d4bc63</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Adolescent</topic><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Aged, 80 and over</topic><topic>Basic Reproduction Number - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Child</topic><topic>communicable disease</topic><topic>Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology</topic><topic>Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control</topic><topic>COVID-19</topic><topic>Epidemics</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Pandemics - prevention & control</topic><topic>Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology</topic><topic>Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control</topic><topic>Public Policy</topic><topic>Quarantine</topic><topic>seoul</topic><topic>Seoul - epidemiology</topic><topic>Time Factors</topic><topic>Young Adult</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Moon, Seong-Geun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kim, Yeon-Kyung</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Son, Woo-Sik</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kim, Jong-Hoon</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Choi, Jungsoon</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Na, Baeg-Ju</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Park, Boyoung</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Choi, Bo Youl</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><collection>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><jtitle>Epidemiology and health</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Moon, Seong-Geun</au><au>Kim, Yeon-Kyung</au><au>Son, Woo-Sik</au><au>Kim, Jong-Hoon</au><au>Choi, Jungsoon</au><au>Na, Baeg-Ju</au><au>Park, Boyoung</au><au>Choi, Bo Youl</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Time-variant reproductive number of COVID-19 in Seoul, Korea</atitle><jtitle>Epidemiology and health</jtitle><addtitle>Epidemiol Health</addtitle><date>2020-06-28</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>42</volume><spage>e2020047</spage><epage>e2020047</epage><pages>e2020047-e2020047</pages><issn>2092-7193</issn><eissn>2092-7193</eissn><abstract>To estimate time-variant reproductive number (Rt) of coronavirus disease 19 based on either number of daily confirmed cases or their onset date to monitor effectiveness of quarantine policies.
Using number of daily confirmed cases from January 23, 2020 to March 22, 2020 and their symptom onset date from the official website of the Seoul Metropolitan Government and the district office, we calculated Rt using program R's package "EpiEstim". For asymptomatic cases, their symptom onset date was considered as -2, -1, 0, +1, and +2 days of confirmed date.
Based on the information of 313 confirmed cases, the epidemic curve was shaped like 'propagated epidemic curve'. The daily Rt based on Rt_c peaked to 2.6 on February 20, 2020, then showed decreased trend and became <1.0 from March 3, 2020. Comparing both Rt from Rt_c and from the number of daily onset cases, we found that the pattern of changes was similar, although the variation of Rt was greater when using Rt_c. When we changed assumed onset date for asymptotic cases (-2 days to +2 days of the confirmed date), the results were comparable.
Rt can be estimated based on Rt_c which is available from daily report of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Estimation of Rt would be useful to continuously monitor the effectiveness of the quarantine policy at the city and province levels.</abstract><cop>Korea (South)</cop><pub>Korean Society of Epidemiology</pub><pmid>32660220</pmid><doi>10.4178/epih.e2020047</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Adolescent Adult Aged Aged, 80 and over Basic Reproduction Number - statistics & numerical data Child communicable disease Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control COVID-19 Epidemics Female Humans Male Middle Aged Pandemics - prevention & control Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control Public Policy Quarantine seoul Seoul - epidemiology Time Factors Young Adult |
| title | Time-variant reproductive number of COVID-19 in Seoul, Korea |
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