Risk factors for metachronous colorectal cancer in Lynch syndrome patients: a registry-based observational mono-institutional study cohort

Background Risk factors for metachronous colorectal cancer (mCRC) in Lynch Syndrome (LS) patients are essential for colorectal cancer (CRC) treatment strategy to perform not only a curative but also preventive surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk factors for mCRC development in LS patients to define the patient subset that may benefit an extended curative and preventive surgical resection. Methods Patient’s clinical history, oncological, molecular and follow-up were collected retrospectively from the Hereditary Digestive Tumors Registry at the National Cancer Institute of Milan. The age-related cumulative risk of mCRC was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Factors significantly associated with mCRC were analyzed with a Cox regression model. Overall and specific competitive risks were also calculated. Results In a total of 1346 CRC patients, 159 (11.8%) developed a mCRC after a mean follow-up of 138 months from the primary tumor. The independent risk factors reported by a multivariate analysis were: pathogenetic variants in MLH1 and MSH2 (HR 2.96 and 1.91, respectively) and history of colorectal adenomas (HR 1.54); whereas female sex and extended surgery were protective (HR 0.59 and 0.79, respectively). Conclusions Among a high-risk population for CRC, in particular LS, an extended surgery may be considered in CRC patients with specific risk factors ( MLH1 or MSH2 germline pathogenic variants, history of colorectal adenomas) to reduce the risk of mCRC development.