Predicting the treatment outcome of nivolumab in recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma: prognostic value of combined performance status and modified Glasgow prognostic score

Purpose The importance of nivolumab for recurrent or metastatic (R/M) head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is rapidly increasing. However, prognostic factors have not been determined for predicting treatment outcome. We aimed to investigate the prognostic factors in R/M HNSCC patients treated with nivolumab. Methods This retrospective study included 42 patients with R/M HNSCC who received nivolumab therapy. Correlations of overall survival (OS) with various patient characteristics including age, recurrent/metastatic site, performance status (PS), programmed death-ligand 1 positivity, body mass index, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS), previous cetuximab administration, and immune-related adverse events were investigated. Results The overall response rate and disease control rate were 16.7% and 45.2%, respectively. Estimated 1-year OS and progression-free survival (PFS) were 56.4% and 24.5%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that PS = 2 (hazard ratio 0.147; 95% CI 0.041–0.527; p = 0.003) and mGPS = 2 (hazard ratio 0.188; 95% CI, 0.057–0.620; p = 0.006) were independent predictors of poor OS. Given that the PS and mGPS were independent prognostic factors, we classified patients into three groups according to PS and mGPS: Group 1, both PS and mGPS were 0 or 1 ( n = 30); Group 2, either PS or mGPS was 2 ( n = 9); Group 3, both PS and mGPS were 2 ( n = 3). The OS curves were significantly stratified among the three groups. Conclusion The combination of PS and mGPS accurately predicted OS after nivolumab therapy. Preventive intervention to maintain general condition without simultaneously exceeding level 2 of PS and mGPS might be important for improving treatment outcomes of nivolumab.