Long‐term liver cancer incidence and mortality trends in the Changning District of Shanghai, China
Objective To evaluate the trends and estimate the long‐term effects of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer (LC) in an urban district of Shanghai, China. Methods Crude and age‐standardized rates of the incidence and mortality of LC were calculated from 19...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of digestive diseases 2020-04, Vol.21 (4), p.230-236 |
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creator | Ji, Xiao Wei Jiang, Yu Wu, Hua Zhou, Peng Tan, Yu Ting Li, Hong Lan Zhang, Lei Zhao, Wen Sui Xia, Qing Hua Bray, Freddie Xiang, Yong Bing |
description | Objective
To evaluate the trends and estimate the long‐term effects of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer (LC) in an urban district of Shanghai, China.
Methods
Crude and age‐standardized rates of the incidence and mortality of LC were calculated from 1973 to 2013 annually by sex, and the direction and magnitude of the trends were estimated by the average annual percentage change (AAPC) using the Joinpoint Regression Model. An age–period–cohort (APC) model was also used to evaluate the non‐linear effects of calendar time and birth cohort on LC incidence and mortality.
Results
In 1973‐1977 and 2008‐2013 the age‐standardized rates of LC incidence and mortality (per 100 000) were 24.27 and 22.60 in men, and 7.50 and 7.26 in women, respectively. Declining trends of LC incidence and mortality rates were observed for both sexes (AAPC; P |
doi_str_mv | 10.1111/1751-2980.12855 |
format | Article |
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To evaluate the trends and estimate the long‐term effects of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer (LC) in an urban district of Shanghai, China.
Methods
Crude and age‐standardized rates of the incidence and mortality of LC were calculated from 1973 to 2013 annually by sex, and the direction and magnitude of the trends were estimated by the average annual percentage change (AAPC) using the Joinpoint Regression Model. An age–period–cohort (APC) model was also used to evaluate the non‐linear effects of calendar time and birth cohort on LC incidence and mortality.
Results
In 1973‐1977 and 2008‐2013 the age‐standardized rates of LC incidence and mortality (per 100 000) were 24.27 and 22.60 in men, and 7.50 and 7.26 in women, respectively. Declining trends of LC incidence and mortality rates were observed for both sexes (AAPC; P < 0.05 for both). The APC models indicated that the rates of LC incidence and mortality were significantly influenced both by calendar time and birth cohort effects.
Conclusions
The incidence and mortality rates of LC have decreased in both sexes in the Changning District of Shanghai over the past four decades. Although obvious descending trends of LC incidence and mortality were detected, attention should also be paid to the LC burden for a long time in the future because of huge population size in China and the continuity of population aging.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1751-2972</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1751-2980</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1111/1751-2980.12855</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32124559</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Melbourne: Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd</publisher><subject>Adenomatous polyposis coli ; Adult ; Age ; Age Distribution ; Aged ; age–period–cohort analysis ; Aging ; China - epidemiology ; Cohort analysis ; Female ; Humans ; Incidence ; Joinpoint regression model ; Liver cancer ; Liver Neoplasms - mortality ; Long-term effects ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Mortality ; Mortality - trends ; Sex Distribution ; Trends</subject><ispartof>Journal of digestive diseases, 2020-04, Vol.21 (4), p.230-236</ispartof><rights>2020 Chinese Medical Association Shanghai Branch, Chinese Society of Gastroenterology, Renji Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd</rights><rights>2020 Chinese Medical Association Shanghai Branch, Chinese Society of Gastroenterology, Renji Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3715-ac30191a366e19f93ebe95640e3fcd282705a2d840a5f2be405759bdb4b88a343</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3715-ac30191a366e19f93ebe95640e3fcd282705a2d840a5f2be405759bdb4b88a343</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-3840-9915</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111%2F1751-2980.12855$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111%2F1751-2980.12855$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,1411,27903,27904,45553,45554</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32124559$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Ji, Xiao Wei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jiang, Yu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wu, Hua</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhou, Peng</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tan, Yu Ting</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Hong Lan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Lei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhao, Wen Sui</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xia, Qing Hua</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bray, Freddie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xiang, Yong Bing</creatorcontrib><title>Long‐term liver cancer incidence and mortality trends in the Changning District of Shanghai, China</title><title>Journal of digestive diseases</title><addtitle>J Dig Dis</addtitle><description>Objective
To evaluate the trends and estimate the long‐term effects of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer (LC) in an urban district of Shanghai, China.
Methods
Crude and age‐standardized rates of the incidence and mortality of LC were calculated from 1973 to 2013 annually by sex, and the direction and magnitude of the trends were estimated by the average annual percentage change (AAPC) using the Joinpoint Regression Model. An age–period–cohort (APC) model was also used to evaluate the non‐linear effects of calendar time and birth cohort on LC incidence and mortality.
Results
In 1973‐1977 and 2008‐2013 the age‐standardized rates of LC incidence and mortality (per 100 000) were 24.27 and 22.60 in men, and 7.50 and 7.26 in women, respectively. Declining trends of LC incidence and mortality rates were observed for both sexes (AAPC; P < 0.05 for both). The APC models indicated that the rates of LC incidence and mortality were significantly influenced both by calendar time and birth cohort effects.
Conclusions
The incidence and mortality rates of LC have decreased in both sexes in the Changning District of Shanghai over the past four decades. Although obvious descending trends of LC incidence and mortality were detected, attention should also be paid to the LC burden for a long time in the future because of huge population size in China and the continuity of population aging.</description><subject>Adenomatous polyposis coli</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Age</subject><subject>Age Distribution</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>age–period–cohort analysis</subject><subject>Aging</subject><subject>China - epidemiology</subject><subject>Cohort analysis</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Joinpoint regression model</subject><subject>Liver cancer</subject><subject>Liver Neoplasms - mortality</subject><subject>Long-term effects</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Mortality</subject><subject>Mortality - trends</subject><subject>Sex Distribution</subject><subject>Trends</subject><issn>1751-2972</issn><issn>1751-2980</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkT1PwzAQhi0EglKY2ZAlFgYK_oiTeEQpX1IlBmC2HOfSGiVOsVNQN34Cv5FfgkuhAwu33Pnu8avTewgdUXJOY1zQTNARk3l8slyILTTYdLY3dcb20H4Iz4SINMvTXbTHGWWJEHKAqknnpp_vHz34Fjf2FTw22pmYrDO2glhi7Srcdr7Xje2XuPfgqhDHuJ8BLmbaTZ11Uzy2offW9Lir8cOqO9P2LM6t0wdop9ZNgMOfPERP11ePxe1ocn9zV1xORoZnVIy04YRKqnmaApW15FCCFGlCgNemYjnLiNCsyhOiRc1KSIjIhCyrMinzXPOED9HpWnfuu5cFhF61NhhoGu2gWwTFeFRgUjAa0ZM_6HO38C5up1hCiCQkmhepizVlfBeCh1rNvW21XypK1OoAamWxWtmtvg8Qfxz_6C7KFqoN_-t4BMQaeLMNLP_TU8V4vBb-AifYjyY</recordid><startdate>202004</startdate><enddate>202004</enddate><creator>Ji, Xiao Wei</creator><creator>Jiang, Yu</creator><creator>Wu, Hua</creator><creator>Zhou, Peng</creator><creator>Tan, Yu Ting</creator><creator>Li, Hong Lan</creator><creator>Zhang, Lei</creator><creator>Zhao, Wen Sui</creator><creator>Xia, Qing Hua</creator><creator>Bray, Freddie</creator><creator>Xiang, Yong Bing</creator><general>Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd</general><general>Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7T5</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>7X8</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3840-9915</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>202004</creationdate><title>Long‐term liver cancer incidence and mortality trends in the Changning District of Shanghai, China</title><author>Ji, Xiao Wei ; Jiang, Yu ; Wu, Hua ; Zhou, Peng ; Tan, Yu Ting ; Li, Hong Lan ; Zhang, Lei ; Zhao, Wen Sui ; Xia, Qing Hua ; Bray, Freddie ; Xiang, Yong Bing</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c3715-ac30191a366e19f93ebe95640e3fcd282705a2d840a5f2be405759bdb4b88a343</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Adenomatous polyposis coli</topic><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Age</topic><topic>Age Distribution</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>age–period–cohort analysis</topic><topic>Aging</topic><topic>China - epidemiology</topic><topic>Cohort analysis</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Incidence</topic><topic>Joinpoint regression model</topic><topic>Liver cancer</topic><topic>Liver Neoplasms - mortality</topic><topic>Long-term effects</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Mortality</topic><topic>Mortality - trends</topic><topic>Sex Distribution</topic><topic>Trends</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Ji, Xiao Wei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jiang, Yu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wu, Hua</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhou, Peng</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tan, Yu Ting</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Hong Lan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Lei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhao, Wen Sui</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xia, Qing Hua</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bray, Freddie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xiang, Yong Bing</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Immunology Abstracts</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Journal of digestive diseases</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Ji, Xiao Wei</au><au>Jiang, Yu</au><au>Wu, Hua</au><au>Zhou, Peng</au><au>Tan, Yu Ting</au><au>Li, Hong Lan</au><au>Zhang, Lei</au><au>Zhao, Wen Sui</au><au>Xia, Qing Hua</au><au>Bray, Freddie</au><au>Xiang, Yong Bing</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Long‐term liver cancer incidence and mortality trends in the Changning District of Shanghai, China</atitle><jtitle>Journal of digestive diseases</jtitle><addtitle>J Dig Dis</addtitle><date>2020-04</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>21</volume><issue>4</issue><spage>230</spage><epage>236</epage><pages>230-236</pages><issn>1751-2972</issn><eissn>1751-2980</eissn><abstract>Objective
To evaluate the trends and estimate the long‐term effects of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer (LC) in an urban district of Shanghai, China.
Methods
Crude and age‐standardized rates of the incidence and mortality of LC were calculated from 1973 to 2013 annually by sex, and the direction and magnitude of the trends were estimated by the average annual percentage change (AAPC) using the Joinpoint Regression Model. An age–period–cohort (APC) model was also used to evaluate the non‐linear effects of calendar time and birth cohort on LC incidence and mortality.
Results
In 1973‐1977 and 2008‐2013 the age‐standardized rates of LC incidence and mortality (per 100 000) were 24.27 and 22.60 in men, and 7.50 and 7.26 in women, respectively. Declining trends of LC incidence and mortality rates were observed for both sexes (AAPC; P < 0.05 for both). The APC models indicated that the rates of LC incidence and mortality were significantly influenced both by calendar time and birth cohort effects.
Conclusions
The incidence and mortality rates of LC have decreased in both sexes in the Changning District of Shanghai over the past four decades. Although obvious descending trends of LC incidence and mortality were detected, attention should also be paid to the LC burden for a long time in the future because of huge population size in China and the continuity of population aging.</abstract><cop>Melbourne</cop><pub>Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd</pub><pmid>32124559</pmid><doi>10.1111/1751-2980.12855</doi><tpages>7</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3840-9915</orcidid></addata></record> |
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subjects | Adenomatous polyposis coli Adult Age Age Distribution Aged age–period–cohort analysis Aging China - epidemiology Cohort analysis Female Humans Incidence Joinpoint regression model Liver cancer Liver Neoplasms - mortality Long-term effects Male Middle Aged Mortality Mortality - trends Sex Distribution Trends |
title | Long‐term liver cancer incidence and mortality trends in the Changning District of Shanghai, China |
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