A Scoring System to Determine Patients’ Risk of Colectomy Within 1 Year After Hospital Admission for Acute Severe Ulcerative Colitis

There is consensus on the criteria used to define acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) and on patient management, but it has been a challenge to identify patients at risk for colectomy based on data collected at hospital admission. We aimed to develop a system to determine patients’ risk of colectomy within 1 y of hospital admission for ASUC based on clinical, biomarker, and endoscopy data. We performed a retrospective analysis of consecutive patients with ASUC treated with corticosteroids, ciclosporin, or tumor necrosis factor (TNF) antagonists and admitted to 2 hospitals in France from 2002 through 2017. Patients were followed until colectomy or loss of follow up. A total of 270 patients with ASUC were included in the final analysis, with a median follow-up time of 30 months (derivation cohort). Independent risk factors identified by Cox multivariate analysis were used to develop a system to identify patients at risk for colectomy 1 y after ASUC. We developed a scoring system based on these 4 factors (1 point for each item) to identify high-risk (score 3 or 4) vs low-risk (score 0) patients. We validated this system using data from an independent cohort of 185 patients with ASUC treated from 2006 through 2017 at 2 centers in France. In the derivation cohort, the cumulative risk of colectomy was 12.3% (95% CI, 8.6–16.8). Based on multivariate analysis, previous treatment with TNF antagonists or thiopurines (hazard ratio [HR], 3.86; 95% CI, 1.82–8.18), Clostridioides difficile infection (HR, 3.73; 95% CI, 1.11–12.55), serum level of C-reactive protein above 30 mg/L (HR, 3.06; 95% CI, 1.11–8.43), and serum level of albumin below 30 g/L (HR, 2.67; 95% CI, 1.20–5.92) were associated with increased risk of colectomy. In the derivation cohort, the cumulative risks of colectomy within 1 y in patients with scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 were 0.0%, 9.4% (95% CI, 4.3%–16.7%), 10.6% (95% CI, 5.6%–17.4%), 51.2% (95% CI, 26.6%–71.3%), and 100%. Negative predictive values ranged from 87% (95% CI, 82%–91%) to 92% (95% CI, 88%–95.0%). Findings from the validation cohort were consistent with findings from the derivation cohort. We developed a scoring system to identify patients at low-risk vs high-risk for colectomy within 1 y of hospitalization for ASUC, based on previous treatment with TNF antagonists or thiopurines, C difficile infection, and serum levels of CRP and albumin. The system was validated in an external cohort.