Active Surveillance of Grade Group 1 Prostate Cancer: Long-term Outcomes from a Large Prospective Cohort

Active surveillance (AS) is the preferred management option for most men with grade group (GG) 1 prostate cancer (PCa). Questions persist regarding long-term outcomes and the optimal approach to AS. To determine survival and metastatic outcomes in AS patients. Secondary objectives were to measure the cumulative incidence and association of patient-level factors on biopsy grade reclassification. A prospective, active, open-enrollment cohort study was conducted from 1995 through July 2018 at a tertiary-care academic institution. Patients with very-low-risk or low-risk PCa were enrolled. AS with semiannual prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and digital rectal examination, serial prostate biopsy, and multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI). The 10- and 15-yr cumulative incidences of primary and secondary outcomes were determined. Overall, 1818 men were monitored on AS for a median of 5.0yr (interquartile range 2.0–9.0). There were 88 non-PCa deaths, four PCa deaths, and one additional case of metastasis. The cumulative incidence of PCa-specific mortality or metastasis was 0.1% (95% confidence interval, 0.04–0.6%) at both 10 and 15yr. The 5-, 10-, and 15-yr cumulative incidences of biopsy grade reclassification were 21%, 30%, and 32%, respectively. On multivariable analysis, biopsy grade reclassification was associated with older age, African-American race, PSA density, and increased cancer volume on biopsy, and men who underwent mpMRI prior to enrollment were less likely to undergo grade reclassification. Our selection and monitoring are more stringent than many other contemporary AS programs. In a large, single-institution, prospective AS cohort, the risk of cancer death or metastasis was