Interannual variability and predictability of 500 mb geopotential heights over the Northern Hemisphere
The interannual variability of monthly mean 500 mb heights in a 15-year sample of observed data is compared to the variance expected from sampling errors associated with high-frequency fluctuations using the analysis of variance approach. The monthly mean 'signal' stands out significantly...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Monthly weather review 1983-06, Vol.111 (6), p.1273-1279 |
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| container_title | Monthly weather review |
| container_volume | 111 |
| creator | Shukla, J. Gutzler, D. S. |
| description | The interannual variability of monthly mean 500 mb heights in a 15-year sample of observed data is compared to the variance expected from sampling errors associated with high-frequency fluctuations using the analysis of variance approach. The monthly mean 'signal' stands out significantly from the 'noise' over a substantial fraction of the Northern Hemisphere during the winter. The expected spectrum of variance at very low frequencies is assumed to be white at frequencies lower than per (30 days) rather than the per (96 days) cutoff used by Madden. This difference is justified by observing that the effective time between independent samples T(0) is relatively insensitive to changes in the maximum lag over which the local autocorrelation is integrated to calculate T(0). Further non-randomness in the variance of 500 mb heights is evidenced by the correlation between monthly mean height and contemporaneous daily variability. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<1273:ivapom>2.0.co;2 |
| format | Article |
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| identifier | ISSN: 0027-0644 |
| ispartof | Monthly weather review, 1983-06, Vol.111 (6), p.1273-1279 |
| issn | 0027-0644 1520-0493 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_23290343 |
| source | American Meteorological Society; Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals; NASA Technical Reports Server; Alma/SFX Local Collection |
| subjects | Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Meteorology Meteorology And Climatology Weather analysis and prediction |
| title | Interannual variability and predictability of 500 mb geopotential heights over the Northern Hemisphere |
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