Correlates of HIV RNA concentrations in cerebrospinal fluid during antiretroviral therapy: a longitudinal cohort study

Few large projects have evaluated the factors that influence the HIV RNA concentrations (viral load) in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) during antiretroviral therapy (ART) over time. We aimed to determine the correlates of HIV RNA in CSF in a large cohort. We analysed longitudinal data from adults living with HIV in the US CHARTER cohort. Participants in the CHARTER study were recruited from six US academic medical centres—in Baltimore (MD), Galveston (TX), New York (NY), St Louis (MO), San Diego (C92A), and Seattle (WA). Participants in this study had been assessed at least three times between Sept 4, 2003, and Sept 14, 2010, and were taking ART and underwent venous and lumbar puncture with measurement of HIV RNA concentration at all assessments. The lower limit of quantification of the HIV RNA assays was 50 copies per mL. Data were analysed with longitudinal mixed effects logistic regression to identify correlates of HIV RNA concentration (as a binary [detectable or not] and as a continuous variable) in CSF over time. We tested demographic characteristics, plasma HIV RNA, nadir and current CD4 cell count in blood, current CD8 cell count in blood, estimated duration of HIV infection, AIDS diagnosis, duration of ART, adherence to ART, ART characteristics, and CSF characteristics as potential correlates. At the time of analysis, 2207 assessments from 401 participants met the criteria for inclusion in this study. Mean duration of observation was 33·7 months (range 12–84). HIV RNA concentrations in 710 (32·2%) plasma specimens and in 255 (11·6%) CSF specimens were greater than the lower limit of quantification. The best multivariate model of HIV RNA concentration in CSF greater than the lower limit of quantification over time included increased plasma HIV RNA concentration (odds ratio 18·0 per 1 log10 copy per mL, 95% CI 11·3 to 28·8; p