Seasonal transmission dynamics of measles in China
Measles, a highly contagious infection caused by the measles virus, is a major public health problem in China. The reported measles cases decreased dramatically from 2004 to 2012 due to the mandatory measles vaccine program started in 2005 and the goal of eliminating measles by 2012. However, after...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Theory in biosciences = Theorie in den Biowissenschaften 2018-11, Vol.137 (2), p.185-195 |
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| container_title | Theory in biosciences = Theorie in den Biowissenschaften |
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| creator | Huang, Jicai Ruan, Shigui Wu, Xiao Zhou, Xuelei |
| description | Measles, a highly contagious infection caused by the measles virus, is a major public health problem in China. The reported measles cases decreased dramatically from 2004 to 2012 due to the mandatory measles vaccine program started in 2005 and the goal of eliminating measles by 2012. However, after reaching its lowest level in 2012, measles has resurged again since 2013. Since the monthly data of measles cases exhibit a seasonally fluctuating pattern, based on the measles model in Earn et al. (Science 287:667–670,
2000
), we propose a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered model with periodic transmission rate to investigate the seasonal measles epidemics and the effect of vaccination. We calculate the basic reproduction number
R
0
, analyze the dynamical behavior of the model, and use the model to simulate the monthly data of measles cases reported in China. We also carry out some sensitivity analysis of
R
0
in the terms of various model parameters which shows that measles can be controlled and eventually eradicated by increasing the immunization rate, improving the effective vaccine management, and enhancing the awareness of people about measles. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s12064-018-0271-8 |
| format | Article |
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2000
), we propose a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered model with periodic transmission rate to investigate the seasonal measles epidemics and the effect of vaccination. We calculate the basic reproduction number
R
0
, analyze the dynamical behavior of the model, and use the model to simulate the monthly data of measles cases reported in China. We also carry out some sensitivity analysis of
R
0
in the terms of various model parameters which shows that measles can be controlled and eventually eradicated by increasing the immunization rate, improving the effective vaccine management, and enhancing the awareness of people about measles.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1431-7613</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1611-7530</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s12064-018-0271-8</identifier><identifier>PMID: 30259352</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg</publisher><subject>Basic Reproduction Number ; Bioinformatics ; Biology ; Biomedical and Life Sciences ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; China ; Complex Systems ; Computer Simulation ; Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control ; Disease Outbreaks - statistics & numerical data ; Evolutionary Biology ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Life Sciences ; Mathematical and Computational Biology ; Measles ; Measles - epidemiology ; Measles - transmission ; Measles Vaccine ; Models, Theoretical ; Original Article ; Philosophy of Biology ; Public health ; Seasons ; Sensitivity analysis ; Theoretical Ecology/Statistics ; Vaccination ; Vaccines</subject><ispartof>Theory in biosciences = Theorie in den Biowissenschaften, 2018-11, Vol.137 (2), p.185-195</ispartof><rights>Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018</rights><rights>Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c372t-34dce8fc94ebb114fa4fb37afcfda9e401e527930301866e1b3e1feed8624b473</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c372t-34dce8fc94ebb114fa4fb37afcfda9e401e527930301866e1b3e1feed8624b473</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-6348-8205</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12064-018-0271-8$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12064-018-0271-8$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27924,27925,41488,42557,51319</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30259352$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Huang, Jicai</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ruan, Shigui</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wu, Xiao</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhou, Xuelei</creatorcontrib><title>Seasonal transmission dynamics of measles in China</title><title>Theory in biosciences = Theorie in den Biowissenschaften</title><addtitle>Theory Biosci</addtitle><addtitle>Theory Biosci</addtitle><description>Measles, a highly contagious infection caused by the measles virus, is a major public health problem in China. The reported measles cases decreased dramatically from 2004 to 2012 due to the mandatory measles vaccine program started in 2005 and the goal of eliminating measles by 2012. However, after reaching its lowest level in 2012, measles has resurged again since 2013. Since the monthly data of measles cases exhibit a seasonally fluctuating pattern, based on the measles model in Earn et al. (Science 287:667–670,
2000
), we propose a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered model with periodic transmission rate to investigate the seasonal measles epidemics and the effect of vaccination. We calculate the basic reproduction number
R
0
, analyze the dynamical behavior of the model, and use the model to simulate the monthly data of measles cases reported in China. We also carry out some sensitivity analysis of
R
0
in the terms of various model parameters which shows that measles can be controlled and eventually eradicated by increasing the immunization rate, improving the effective vaccine management, and enhancing the awareness of people about measles.</description><subject>Basic Reproduction Number</subject><subject>Bioinformatics</subject><subject>Biology</subject><subject>Biomedical and Life Sciences</subject><subject>Child</subject><subject>Child, Preschool</subject><subject>China</subject><subject>Complex Systems</subject><subject>Computer Simulation</subject><subject>Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control</subject><subject>Disease Outbreaks - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Evolutionary Biology</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Infant</subject><subject>Infant, Newborn</subject><subject>Life Sciences</subject><subject>Mathematical and Computational Biology</subject><subject>Measles</subject><subject>Measles - epidemiology</subject><subject>Measles - transmission</subject><subject>Measles Vaccine</subject><subject>Models, Theoretical</subject><subject>Original Article</subject><subject>Philosophy of Biology</subject><subject>Public health</subject><subject>Seasons</subject><subject>Sensitivity analysis</subject><subject>Theoretical Ecology/Statistics</subject><subject>Vaccination</subject><subject>Vaccines</subject><issn>1431-7613</issn><issn>1611-7530</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2018</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kM1KxDAURoMozjj6AG6k4MZNNTdJk3Ypg38w4EJdh7S90Q5tOibtYt7eDB0VBFe5kHO_fDmEnAO9BkrVTQBGpUgp5CllCtL8gMxBAqQq4_QwzoLHWQKfkZMQ1pQyUIU8JjNOWVbwjM0Je0ETemfaZPDGha4JoeldUm-d6ZoqJL1Nuki0GJLGJcuPxplTcmRNG_Bsfy7I2_3d6_IxXT0_PC1vV2nFFRtSLuoKc1sVAssSQFgjbMmVsZWtTYGCAmZMFZzy2F9KhJIjWMQ6l0yUQvEFuZpyN77_HDEMOrarsG2Nw34MmgFwpjhVENHLP-i6H338VaR4riSLJkSkYKIq34fg0eqNbzrjtxqo3gnVk1AdC-mdUJ3HnYt98lh2WP9sfBuMAJuAEK_cO_rfp_9P_QK5sn77</recordid><startdate>20181101</startdate><enddate>20181101</enddate><creator>Huang, Jicai</creator><creator>Ruan, Shigui</creator><creator>Wu, Xiao</creator><creator>Zhou, Xuelei</creator><general>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BBNVY</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>LK8</scope><scope>M7P</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>7X8</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6348-8205</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20181101</creationdate><title>Seasonal transmission dynamics of measles in China</title><author>Huang, Jicai ; Ruan, Shigui ; Wu, Xiao ; Zhou, Xuelei</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c372t-34dce8fc94ebb114fa4fb37afcfda9e401e527930301866e1b3e1feed8624b473</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2018</creationdate><topic>Basic Reproduction Number</topic><topic>Bioinformatics</topic><topic>Biology</topic><topic>Biomedical and Life Sciences</topic><topic>Child</topic><topic>Child, Preschool</topic><topic>China</topic><topic>Complex Systems</topic><topic>Computer Simulation</topic><topic>Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control</topic><topic>Disease Outbreaks - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Evolutionary Biology</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Infant</topic><topic>Infant, Newborn</topic><topic>Life Sciences</topic><topic>Mathematical and Computational Biology</topic><topic>Measles</topic><topic>Measles - epidemiology</topic><topic>Measles - transmission</topic><topic>Measles Vaccine</topic><topic>Models, Theoretical</topic><topic>Original Article</topic><topic>Philosophy of Biology</topic><topic>Public health</topic><topic>Seasons</topic><topic>Sensitivity analysis</topic><topic>Theoretical Ecology/Statistics</topic><topic>Vaccination</topic><topic>Vaccines</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Huang, Jicai</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ruan, Shigui</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wu, Xiao</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhou, Xuelei</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>Biological Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Theory in biosciences = Theorie in den Biowissenschaften</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Huang, Jicai</au><au>Ruan, Shigui</au><au>Wu, Xiao</au><au>Zhou, Xuelei</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Seasonal transmission dynamics of measles in China</atitle><jtitle>Theory in biosciences = Theorie in den Biowissenschaften</jtitle><stitle>Theory Biosci</stitle><addtitle>Theory Biosci</addtitle><date>2018-11-01</date><risdate>2018</risdate><volume>137</volume><issue>2</issue><spage>185</spage><epage>195</epage><pages>185-195</pages><issn>1431-7613</issn><eissn>1611-7530</eissn><abstract>Measles, a highly contagious infection caused by the measles virus, is a major public health problem in China. The reported measles cases decreased dramatically from 2004 to 2012 due to the mandatory measles vaccine program started in 2005 and the goal of eliminating measles by 2012. However, after reaching its lowest level in 2012, measles has resurged again since 2013. Since the monthly data of measles cases exhibit a seasonally fluctuating pattern, based on the measles model in Earn et al. (Science 287:667–670,
2000
), we propose a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered model with periodic transmission rate to investigate the seasonal measles epidemics and the effect of vaccination. We calculate the basic reproduction number
R
0
, analyze the dynamical behavior of the model, and use the model to simulate the monthly data of measles cases reported in China. We also carry out some sensitivity analysis of
R
0
in the terms of various model parameters which shows that measles can be controlled and eventually eradicated by increasing the immunization rate, improving the effective vaccine management, and enhancing the awareness of people about measles.</abstract><cop>Berlin/Heidelberg</cop><pub>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</pub><pmid>30259352</pmid><doi>10.1007/s12064-018-0271-8</doi><tpages>11</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6348-8205</orcidid></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Basic Reproduction Number Bioinformatics Biology Biomedical and Life Sciences Child Child, Preschool China Complex Systems Computer Simulation Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control Disease Outbreaks - statistics & numerical data Evolutionary Biology Humans Infant Infant, Newborn Life Sciences Mathematical and Computational Biology Measles Measles - epidemiology Measles - transmission Measles Vaccine Models, Theoretical Original Article Philosophy of Biology Public health Seasons Sensitivity analysis Theoretical Ecology/Statistics Vaccination Vaccines |
| title | Seasonal transmission dynamics of measles in China |
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