Cluster Analysis of Typhoon Tracks. Part II: Large-Scale Circulation and ENSO
A new probabilistic clustering method, based on a regression mixture model, is used to describe tropical cyclone (TC) propagation in the western North Pacific (WNP). Seven clusters were obtained and described in Part I of this two-part study. In Part II, the present paper, the large-scale patterns o...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of climate 2007-07, Vol.20 (14), p.3654-3676 |
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| creator | Camargo, Suzana J. Robertson, Andrew W. Gaffney, Scott J. Smyth, Padhraic Ghil, Michael |
| description | A new probabilistic clustering method, based on a regression mixture model, is used to describe tropical cyclone (TC) propagation in the western North Pacific (WNP). Seven clusters were obtained and described in Part I of this two-part study. In Part II, the present paper, the large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature associated with each of the clusters are investigated, as well as associations with the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composite wind field maps over the WNP provide a physically consistent picture of each TC type, and of its seasonality. Anomalous vorticity and outgoing longwave radiation indicate changes in the monsoon trough associated with different types of TC genesis and trajectory. The steering winds at 500 hPa are more zonal in the straight-moving clusters, with larger meridional components in the recurving ones. Higher values of vertical wind shear in the midlatitudes also accompany the straight-moving tracks, compared to the recurving ones.
The influence of ENSO on TC activity over the WNP is clearly discerned in specific clusters. Two of the seven clusters are typical of El Niño events; their genesis locations are shifted southeastward and they are more intense. The largest cluster is recurving, located northwestward, and occurs more often during La Niña events. Two types of recurving and one of straight-moving tracks occur preferentially when the Madden–Julian oscillation is active over the WNP region. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1175/jcli4203.1 |
| format | Article |
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The influence of ENSO on TC activity over the WNP is clearly discerned in specific clusters. Two of the seven clusters are typical of El Niño events; their genesis locations are shifted southeastward and they are more intense. The largest cluster is recurving, located northwestward, and occurs more often during La Niña events. Two types of recurving and one of straight-moving tracks occur preferentially when the Madden–Julian oscillation is active over the WNP region.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0894-8755</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1520-0442</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1175/jcli4203.1</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Boston, MA: American Meteorological Society</publisher><subject>Atmospheric circulation ; Atmospheric circulation patterns ; Climate change ; Cluster analysis ; Clustering ; Cyclones ; Datasets ; Earth, ocean, space ; El Nino ; El Nino events ; El Nino phenomena ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation event ; Exact sciences and technology ; External geophysics ; Hurricanes ; La Nina ; La Nina events ; Long wave radiation ; Madden-Julian oscillation ; Marine ; Meteorology ; Monsoon trough ; Monsoons ; Probabilistic models ; Radiation ; Regression models ; Research methodology ; Sea surface ; Sea surface temperature ; Seasonal variations ; Seasonality ; Southern Oscillation ; Statistical analysis ; Statistical significance ; Steering ; Storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms ; Summer ; Surface temperature ; Trajectories ; Tropical climates ; Tropical cyclones ; Typhoon tracks ; Typhoons ; Vertical wind shear ; Vorticity ; Wind ; Wind oscillations ; Wind shear ; Winds</subject><ispartof>Journal of climate, 2007-07, Vol.20 (14), p.3654-3676</ispartof><rights>2007 American Meteorological Society</rights><rights>2007 INIST-CNRS</rights><rights>Copyright American Meteorological Society Jul 15, 2007</rights><rights>Copyright American Meteorological Society 2007</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c471t-964fa280a4e6e202f8d1b57371da7a0cd4e2da6c92a9ec3db8de205816ae4b8d3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c471t-964fa280a4e6e202f8d1b57371da7a0cd4e2da6c92a9ec3db8de205816ae4b8d3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/26259769$$EPDF$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/26259769$$EHTML$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,777,781,800,3668,27905,27906,57998,58231</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=18972716$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Camargo, Suzana J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Robertson, Andrew W.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gaffney, Scott J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Smyth, Padhraic</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ghil, Michael</creatorcontrib><title>Cluster Analysis of Typhoon Tracks. Part II: Large-Scale Circulation and ENSO</title><title>Journal of climate</title><description>A new probabilistic clustering method, based on a regression mixture model, is used to describe tropical cyclone (TC) propagation in the western North Pacific (WNP). Seven clusters were obtained and described in Part I of this two-part study. In Part II, the present paper, the large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature associated with each of the clusters are investigated, as well as associations with the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composite wind field maps over the WNP provide a physically consistent picture of each TC type, and of its seasonality. Anomalous vorticity and outgoing longwave radiation indicate changes in the monsoon trough associated with different types of TC genesis and trajectory. The steering winds at 500 hPa are more zonal in the straight-moving clusters, with larger meridional components in the recurving ones. Higher values of vertical wind shear in the midlatitudes also accompany the straight-moving tracks, compared to the recurving ones.
The influence of ENSO on TC activity over the WNP is clearly discerned in specific clusters. Two of the seven clusters are typical of El Niño events; their genesis locations are shifted southeastward and they are more intense. The largest cluster is recurving, located northwestward, and occurs more often during La Niña events. Two types of recurving and one of straight-moving tracks occur preferentially when the Madden–Julian oscillation is active over the WNP region.</description><subject>Atmospheric circulation</subject><subject>Atmospheric circulation patterns</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Cluster analysis</subject><subject>Clustering</subject><subject>Cyclones</subject><subject>Datasets</subject><subject>Earth, ocean, space</subject><subject>El Nino</subject><subject>El Nino events</subject><subject>El Nino phenomena</subject><subject>El Nino-Southern Oscillation event</subject><subject>Exact sciences and technology</subject><subject>External geophysics</subject><subject>Hurricanes</subject><subject>La Nina</subject><subject>La Nina events</subject><subject>Long wave radiation</subject><subject>Madden-Julian oscillation</subject><subject>Marine</subject><subject>Meteorology</subject><subject>Monsoon trough</subject><subject>Monsoons</subject><subject>Probabilistic models</subject><subject>Radiation</subject><subject>Regression models</subject><subject>Research methodology</subject><subject>Sea surface</subject><subject>Sea surface temperature</subject><subject>Seasonal variations</subject><subject>Seasonality</subject><subject>Southern Oscillation</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Statistical significance</subject><subject>Steering</subject><subject>Storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms</subject><subject>Summer</subject><subject>Surface temperature</subject><subject>Trajectories</subject><subject>Tropical climates</subject><subject>Tropical cyclones</subject><subject>Typhoon tracks</subject><subject>Typhoons</subject><subject>Vertical wind shear</subject><subject>Vorticity</subject><subject>Wind</subject><subject>Wind oscillations</subject><subject>Wind shear</subject><subject>Winds</subject><issn>0894-8755</issn><issn>1520-0442</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2007</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>8G5</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNp10E1Lw0AQBuBFFKzVi3chKHpQUmc3-3kswY9IQQ_1HLabDSbGbt1NDv33bm1REDwNwzwzMC9CpxgmGAt225quoQSyCd5DI8wIpEAp2UcjkIqmUjB2iI5CaAEw4QAjdJN3Q-itT6ZL3a1DExJXJ_P16s25ZTL32ryHSfKifZ8UxTE6qHUX7MmujtHr_d08f0xnzw9FPp2lhgrcp4rTWhMJmlpuCZBaVnjBRCZwpYUGU1FLKs2NIlpZk1ULWUXGJOba0thkY3S1vbvy7nOwoS8_mmBs1-mldUMoCQYARmSEF39g6wYfH4lGYiq5UN_q_F9FiBQyAxrR9RYZ70Lwti5XvvnQfl1iKDfRlk_5rNhEW-KIL3cXdTC6q71emib8bkgliMA8urOta0Pv_M-ccMKU4Cr7Aj_Lfzg</recordid><startdate>20070715</startdate><enddate>20070715</enddate><creator>Camargo, Suzana J.</creator><creator>Robertson, Andrew W.</creator><creator>Gaffney, Scott J.</creator><creator>Smyth, Padhraic</creator><creator>Ghil, Michael</creator><general>American Meteorological Society</general><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7QH</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>7X2</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88F</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8AF</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8G5</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ARAPS</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>GUQSH</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>M0K</scope><scope>M1Q</scope><scope>M2O</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>MBDVC</scope><scope>P5Z</scope><scope>P62</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>S0X</scope><scope>7TN</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20070715</creationdate><title>Cluster Analysis of Typhoon Tracks. 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Part II: Large-Scale Circulation and ENSO</atitle><jtitle>Journal of climate</jtitle><date>2007-07-15</date><risdate>2007</risdate><volume>20</volume><issue>14</issue><spage>3654</spage><epage>3676</epage><pages>3654-3676</pages><issn>0894-8755</issn><eissn>1520-0442</eissn><abstract>A new probabilistic clustering method, based on a regression mixture model, is used to describe tropical cyclone (TC) propagation in the western North Pacific (WNP). Seven clusters were obtained and described in Part I of this two-part study. In Part II, the present paper, the large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature associated with each of the clusters are investigated, as well as associations with the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composite wind field maps over the WNP provide a physically consistent picture of each TC type, and of its seasonality. Anomalous vorticity and outgoing longwave radiation indicate changes in the monsoon trough associated with different types of TC genesis and trajectory. The steering winds at 500 hPa are more zonal in the straight-moving clusters, with larger meridional components in the recurving ones. Higher values of vertical wind shear in the midlatitudes also accompany the straight-moving tracks, compared to the recurving ones.
The influence of ENSO on TC activity over the WNP is clearly discerned in specific clusters. Two of the seven clusters are typical of El Niño events; their genesis locations are shifted southeastward and they are more intense. The largest cluster is recurving, located northwestward, and occurs more often during La Niña events. Two types of recurving and one of straight-moving tracks occur preferentially when the Madden–Julian oscillation is active over the WNP region.</abstract><cop>Boston, MA</cop><pub>American Meteorological Society</pub><doi>10.1175/jcli4203.1</doi><tpages>23</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Atmospheric circulation Atmospheric circulation patterns Climate change Cluster analysis Clustering Cyclones Datasets Earth, ocean, space El Nino El Nino events El Nino phenomena El Nino-Southern Oscillation event Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Hurricanes La Nina La Nina events Long wave radiation Madden-Julian oscillation Marine Meteorology Monsoon trough Monsoons Probabilistic models Radiation Regression models Research methodology Sea surface Sea surface temperature Seasonal variations Seasonality Southern Oscillation Statistical analysis Statistical significance Steering Storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms Summer Surface temperature Trajectories Tropical climates Tropical cyclones Typhoon tracks Typhoons Vertical wind shear Vorticity Wind Wind oscillations Wind shear Winds |
| title | Cluster Analysis of Typhoon Tracks. Part II: Large-Scale Circulation and ENSO |
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