impact of ENSO and macrocirculation patterns on precipitation under climate change
The possible impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and macrocirculation patterns (CPs) on local precipitation are examined and analyzed here under climate change conditions. First the relationship between the input and output variables under present conditions is established using two models...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Environmental Geology 2009-09, Vol.58 (5), p.929-935 |
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| container_title | Environmental Geology |
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| creator | Galambosi, A Ozelkan, E. C Duckstein, L |
| description | The possible impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and macrocirculation patterns (CPs) on local precipitation are examined and analyzed here under climate change conditions. First the relationship between the input and output variables under present conditions is established using two models, a fuzzy rule-based model (FRBM) and a multivariate linear regression model (MLRM), then this historical relationship is extended under climate change conditions. The input variables for these models consist of lagged ENSO-data (represented by the Southern Oscillation Index, SOI) and 500 hPa height data clustered into macrocirculation patterns over the western United States, while the output is an estimate of monthly local precipitation at selected Arizona stations. To overcome the lack of SOI data under climate change, several scenarios are constructed by perturbing the historical SOI data in a design of experiments framework. The results of the experimental design show that, in general, the precipitation amount seems to decrease under climate change. While the stations and months have differences, as expected, the perturbed scenarios do not show significant differences. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s00254-008-1572-x |
| format | Article |
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The input variables for these models consist of lagged ENSO-data (represented by the Southern Oscillation Index, SOI) and 500 hPa height data clustered into macrocirculation patterns over the western United States, while the output is an estimate of monthly local precipitation at selected Arizona stations. To overcome the lack of SOI data under climate change, several scenarios are constructed by perturbing the historical SOI data in a design of experiments framework. The results of the experimental design show that, in general, the precipitation amount seems to decrease under climate change. While the stations and months have differences, as expected, the perturbed scenarios do not show significant differences.</description><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climatic conditions</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Earth, ocean, space</subject><subject>El Nino</subject><subject>Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics</subject><subject>Environmental impact</subject><subject>Exact sciences and technology</subject><subject>Experimental design</subject><subject>Geology</subject><subject>Hydrology</subject><subject>Hydrology. Hydrogeology</subject><subject>Local precipitation</subject><subject>Ocean currents</subject><subject>Original Article</subject><subject>Pollution, environment geology</subject><subject>Rain</subject><subject>Southern Oscillation</subject><subject>Studies</subject><issn>0943-0105</issn><issn>1866-6280</issn><issn>1432-0495</issn><issn>1866-6299</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2009</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><recordid>eNp9Uctq3EAQHIIDWTv-gJwiDPFNTvc8dqRjMOsHGBuy3vPQao1sGa2kzEjg_H1mkUkgB5-6oauKqmohviBcIID9HgGk0TlAkaOxMn_9IFaolcxBl-ZIrKDUKgcE80kcx_gCAKW05Ur8bPcj8ZQNTba53z5k1NfZnjgM3AaeO5raoc9GmiYf-pgd9uC5Hdtpucx97UPGXbunyWf8TP2T_yw-NtRFf_o2T8TuavN4eZPfPVzfXv64y0lLNeXKVMgE2mJTUt1YLiqs2DDWtq5sowuDZNGqUnEJHnUhgUzBFWulU9i1OhHni-4Yhl-zj5Pbt5F911Hvhzk6mTKv19Yk4Nl_wJdhDn3y5iRCIY1CmUC4gFL2GINv3BhSqvDbIbhDxW6p2KWK3aFi95o4396EKTJ1TaCe2_iXKLEoQNqDU7ngYjqlhsI_A--Jf11IDQ2OnkIS3m0loAJcW0hvVX8AtN6Ubg</recordid><startdate>20090901</startdate><enddate>20090901</enddate><creator>Galambosi, A</creator><creator>Ozelkan, E. 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Hydrogeology</topic><topic>Local precipitation</topic><topic>Ocean currents</topic><topic>Original Article</topic><topic>Pollution, environment geology</topic><topic>Rain</topic><topic>Southern Oscillation</topic><topic>Studies</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Galambosi, A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ozelkan, E. 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| ispartof | Environmental Geology, 2009-09, Vol.58 (5), p.929-935 |
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| subjects | Climate change Climatic conditions Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Earth, ocean, space El Nino Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics Environmental impact Exact sciences and technology Experimental design Geology Hydrology Hydrology. Hydrogeology Local precipitation Ocean currents Original Article Pollution, environment geology Rain Southern Oscillation Studies |
| title | impact of ENSO and macrocirculation patterns on precipitation under climate change |
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