A Statistical Forecast Model for Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity Based on the NCEP Dynamical Seasonal Forecast

A hybrid dynamical–statistical model is developed for predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity. The model is built upon the empirical relationship between the observed interannual variability of hurricanes and the variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and vertical wind shear in 26-yr...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Journal of climate 2009-09, Vol.22 (17), p.4481-4500
Hauptverfasser:	Wang, Hui, Schemm, Jae-Kyung E., Kumar, Arun, Wang, Wanqiu, Long, Lindsey, Chelliah, Muthuvel, Bell, Gerald D., Peng, Peitao
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Annual variations Atmospheric circulation Climate prediction Climate system Climatology Correlation Earth, ocean, space El Nino Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Forecasting models Hurricane forecasting Hurricane seasons Hurricanes Influence Interannual variability Interannual variations Marine Mathematical models Meteorology Methods Modeling Modelling Oceans Regression analysis Sea surface Sea surface temperature Seasonal forecasting Seasons Statistical analysis Statistical forecasts Statistical models Step functions Surface temperature Time series forecasting Tropical environment Tropical environments Variability Vertical wind shear Weather forecasting Wind Wind shear
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