Prognostic Impact of Residual HPV ctDNA Detection after Chemoradiotherapy for Anal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Chemoradiotherapy (CRT) is the current standard of care for patients diagnosed with locally advanced anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC), but some patients develop local and/or distant relapse during follow-up. This study was designed to monitor human papillomavirus (HPV) circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) levels during CRT in patients with ASCC. We analyzed samples from patients with HPV16- or HPV18-positive locally advanced ASCC. Blood samples were collected before and after CRT. HPV16 or HPV18 ctDNA detection was performed by droplet digital-PCR. HPV ctDNA was detected before CRT in 29 of 33 patients with stages II-III ASCC [sensitivity: 88%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 72-95]; ctDNA positivity rate was associated with tumor stage (64% and 100% in stages II and III, respectively; = 0.008). Among ctDNA-positive patients at baseline, ctDNA levels were higher in N than in N tumors (median 85 copies/mL, range = 8-9,333 vs. 32 copies/mL, range = 3-1,350; = 0.03). ctDNA detection at baseline had no significant prognostic impact. After CRT, three of 18 (17%) patients displayed residual detectable HPV ctDNA; ctDNA detection after CRT was strongly associated with shorter disease-free survival ( < 0.0001). This is the first proof-of-concept study assessing the prognostic value of ctDNA after CRT in locally advanced ASCC. In most patients, HPV ctDNA can be detected before CRT and becomes undetectable during CRT. In this study, we show that residual ctDNA levels after CRT are associated with very poor outcome.