Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe
For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical si...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Theoretical and applied climatology 2009-09, Vol.98 (1-2), p.187-195 |
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| creator | Kürbis, K. Mudelsee, M. Tetzlaff, G. Brázdil, R. |
| description | For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague–Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s00704-008-0094-5 |
| format | Article |
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| subjects | Aquatic Pollution Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Atmospheric Sciences Climate change Climatology Dew Dew point Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Extreme weather Heat waves Meteorology Original Paper Precipitation Standard deviation Temperature Temperature distribution Waste Water Technology Water Management Water Pollution Control |
| title | Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe |
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