Statistical ensemble prediction of the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific
This paper presents a statistical model to forecast seasonal tropical cyclone activity. In order to give a comprehensive view of seasonal tropical cyclone activity, we include not only the number of total tropical cyclones but also the number of typhoons and the NTA (Normalized Typhoon Activity) ind...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Geophysical research letters 2007-12, Vol.34 (24), p.n/a |
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| container_title | Geophysical research letters |
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| creator | Kwon, H. Joe Lee, Woo-Jeong Won, Seong-Hee Cha, Eun-Jeong |
| description | This paper presents a statistical model to forecast seasonal tropical cyclone activity. In order to give a comprehensive view of seasonal tropical cyclone activity, we include not only the number of total tropical cyclones but also the number of typhoons and the NTA (Normalized Typhoon Activity) index as the predictands. The model is based on a multiple linear regression model in which the final predictors are selected with respect to minimizing the prediction error rather than simply fitting with past data. The model is expanded into ensemble prediction by considering the uncertainty of the single and deterministic forecast. The probability forecast based on the ensemble model shows reasonably good skill with respect to reliability and relative operating characteristics. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1029/2007GL032308 |
| format | Article |
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The probability forecast based on the ensemble model shows reasonably good skill with respect to reliability and relative operating characteristics.</description><subject>Earth sciences</subject><subject>Earth, ocean, space</subject><subject>ensemble prediction</subject><subject>Exact sciences and technology</subject><subject>Marine</subject><subject>NTA</subject><subject>tropical cyclone</subject><issn>0094-8276</issn><issn>1944-8007</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2007</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp9kE9PGzEQxa0KpIa0t34AX8qJpeM_u_Yeq4gEpJQiQOrRctyxMGzWwTbQfHvcBKGeKlnyyPN7zzOPkC8MThnw_hsHUIslCC5AfyAT1kvZ6Pp2QCYAfa256j6So5zvAUCAYBNibootIZfg7EBxzLheDUg3CX8HV0IcafS03CEtKW52jNu6IY5IbW0_h7Kl8RnTDnnBXDCN9DKmckevrAs-uE_k0Nsh4-e3e0pu52e3s_Nm-XNxMfu-bJzUTDQtrmQ9AL7T3jtQnbbcaVAaLXRMs1b1nEnuW4e98M5KpdteOL5irJZiSo73tpsUH5_qIGYdssNhsCPGp2w4KGBCtRU82YMuxZwTerNJYW3T1jAwf0M0_4ZY8a9vvjbX7X2yowv5XVNZKZnqKsf33EsYcPtfT7O4XnIJnaiiZi-q-eOfd5FND6ZTdVjz63Jh2Kz-MO-5-SFeAeyujos</recordid><startdate>200712</startdate><enddate>200712</enddate><creator>Kwon, H. 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| ispartof | Geophysical research letters, 2007-12, Vol.34 (24), p.n/a |
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| source | Wiley Online Library AGU 2017; Wiley Online Library Journals; Wiley Blackwell Single Titles; EZB Electronic Journals Library |
| subjects | Earth sciences Earth, ocean, space ensemble prediction Exact sciences and technology Marine NTA tropical cyclone |
| title | Statistical ensemble prediction of the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific |
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