Uncertainty propagation in a London flood simulation

Following recent costly flood events in the United Kingdom, there is considerable societal and political pressure to reduce flooding and improve warnings. In response to this, the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium (FRMRC) has been created to investigate the potential of several areas of existing research to be brought into operational use. In this paper, the estimation of flood impact and probability is analysed and illustrated with examples from a simulated forecast of a Thames Estuary flood event carried out at a FRMRC workshop. The forecast modelling chain consisted of meteorology, storm surge, estuary hydrodynamics, defence failure and inundation. The workshop concluded that end‐to‐end propagation of probability was feasible in an integrated real‐time flood forecasting system, and that the basis of such a system had been demonstrated.