Network connectivity and dispersal barriers: using geographical information system (GIS) tools to predict landscape scale distribution of a key predator (Esox lucius) among lakes

1. The keystone piscivore northern pike Esox lucius can structure fish communities, and models predicting pike-focused connectivity will be important for management of many waters. 2. We explored the ability of pike to colonize upstream locations and modelled presence-absence in lakes based on landscape features derived from maps. An upstream connectivity model (UC model) was generated using data from 87 lakes. We validated the UC model with retrospective whole-lake experiments involving introductions (n = 49) and extirpations (by rotenone) of pike (n = 96), as well as with the natural distribution of pike in lakes (n = 1365) within 26 drainage basin networks in northern Sweden. 3. The UC model predicted the incidence of pike in lakes with stream-connections with 95·4% accuracy, based mainly on a single variable, SV₅max, that measures the minimum distance found between 5 m elevation intervals (= maximum stream slope) along watercourses from nearest downstream source of potential immigrants. Recolonizations of pike in rotenone lakes generated a near-identical classification tree, as in the UC model. The classification accuracy of pike presence in the external validation procedure ranged from 88·7 to 98·7% between different drainage basins. Predictions of pike absence were not as accurate, due possibly to undetected introductions, but still lead to 86·6% overall accuracy of the external validation. Most lakes lacking pike, but misclassified as having pike based on low SV₅max, were isolated from downstream sources of pike by subsurface streamflow through bouldery areas (SSB). 4. Synthesis and applications. The variable SV₅max provide managers with a tool for revealing the location and severity of natural dispersal barriers to pike (and logically also barriers to other species with equivalent or less dispersal capacity). Because presented models only require map-based information, and have high predictive power, they may have the potential to be of fundamental use in predicting distribution of freshwater fish. These predictions may provide the means for prioritizing in risk assessment and control programmes to combat pike invasions, as well as contribute to determining a reference state of species incidence in specific lakes. Our results also point towards a possibility that, even where stream slope is low, long-term effective barriers may be designed that mimic natural SSB.