How well can we forecast high biomass algal bloom events in a eutrophic coastal sea?

High biomass algal bloom events are a characteristic of eutrophic coastal waters; these may result both in ecosystem degradation and economic loss. We present a skill evaluation of a coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem model of the NW European shelf for predicting bloom events based on a comparison with...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Harmful algae 2008-12, Vol.8 (1), p.70-76
Hauptverfasser:	Allen, J. Icarus, Smyth, Timothy J., Siddorn, John R., Holt, Martin
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Algal blooms Model skill North Sea Ocean colour Ocean forecast
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description	High biomass algal bloom events are a characteristic of eutrophic coastal waters; these may result both in ecosystem degradation and economic loss. We present a skill evaluation of a coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem model of the NW European shelf for predicting bloom events based on a comparison with satellite chlorophyll estimates. By setting thresholds to define bloom events we use a binary classification system to generate maps showing the probability a model bloom prediction is correct. Model and satellite data limitations are discussed along with the application of this method to forecasting specific harmful algal species.
doi_str_mv	10.1016/j.hal.2008.08.024
format	Article
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subjects	Algal blooms Model skill North Sea Ocean colour Ocean forecast
title	How well can we forecast high biomass algal bloom events in a eutrophic coastal sea?
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