Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for sunflower in Pakistan

Growth, development, and economic yield of agricultural crops rely on moisture, temperature, light, and carbon dioxide concentration. However, the amount of these parameters is varying with time due to climate change. Climate change is factual and ongoing so, first principle of agronomy should be to...

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Veröffentlicht in:Environmental science and pollution research international 2018-05, Vol.25 (14), p.13719-13730
Hauptverfasser: Awais, Muhammad, Wajid, Aftab, Saleem, Muhammad Farrukh, Nasim, Wajid, Ahmad, Ashfaq, Raza, Muhammad Aown Sammar, Bashir, Muhammad Usman, Mubeen, Muhammad, Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum, Habib ur Rahman, Muhammad, Saeed, Umer, Arshad, Muhammad Naveed, Hussain, Jamshad
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container_end_page 13730
container_issue 14
container_start_page 13719
container_title Environmental science and pollution research international
container_volume 25
creator Awais, Muhammad
Wajid, Aftab
Saleem, Muhammad Farrukh
Nasim, Wajid
Ahmad, Ashfaq
Raza, Muhammad Aown Sammar
Bashir, Muhammad Usman
Mubeen, Muhammad
Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum
Habib ur Rahman, Muhammad
Saeed, Umer
Arshad, Muhammad Naveed
Hussain, Jamshad
description Growth, development, and economic yield of agricultural crops rely on moisture, temperature, light, and carbon dioxide concentration. However, the amount of these parameters is varying with time due to climate change. Climate change is factual and ongoing so, first principle of agronomy should be to identify climate change potential impacts and adaptation measures to manage the susceptibilities of agricultural sector. Crop models have ability to predict the crop’s yield under changing climatic conditions. We used OILCROP-SUN model to simulate the influence of elevated temperature and CO 2 on crop growth duration, maximum leaf area index (LAI), total dry matter (TDM), and achene yield of sunflower under semi-arid conditions of Pakistan (Faisalabad, Punjab). The model was calibrated and validated with the experimental data of 2012 and 2013, respectively. The simulation results showed that phenological events of sunflower were not changed at higher concentration of CO 2 (430 and 550 ppm). However LAI, achene yield, and TDM increased by 0.24, 2.41, and 4.67% at 430 ppm and by 0.48, 3.09, and 9.87% at 550 ppm, respectively. Increased temperature (1 and 2 °C) reduced the sunflower duration to remain green that finally led to less LAI, achene yield, and TDM as compared to present conditions. However, the drastic effects of increased temperature on sunflower were reduced to some extent at 550 ppm CO 2 concentration. Evaluation of different adaptation options revealed that 21 days earlier (as compared to current sowing date) planting of sunflower crop with increased plant population (83,333 plants ha −1 ) could reduce the yield losses due to climate change. Flowering is the most critical stage of sunflower to water scarcity. We recommended skipping second irrigation or 10% (337.5 mm) less irrigation water application to conserve moisture under possible water scarce conditions of 2025 and 2050.
doi_str_mv 10.1007/s11356-018-1587-0
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However, the amount of these parameters is varying with time due to climate change. Climate change is factual and ongoing so, first principle of agronomy should be to identify climate change potential impacts and adaptation measures to manage the susceptibilities of agricultural sector. Crop models have ability to predict the crop’s yield under changing climatic conditions. We used OILCROP-SUN model to simulate the influence of elevated temperature and CO 2 on crop growth duration, maximum leaf area index (LAI), total dry matter (TDM), and achene yield of sunflower under semi-arid conditions of Pakistan (Faisalabad, Punjab). The model was calibrated and validated with the experimental data of 2012 and 2013, respectively. The simulation results showed that phenological events of sunflower were not changed at higher concentration of CO 2 (430 and 550 ppm). However LAI, achene yield, and TDM increased by 0.24, 2.41, and 4.67% at 430 ppm and by 0.48, 3.09, and 9.87% at 550 ppm, respectively. Increased temperature (1 and 2 °C) reduced the sunflower duration to remain green that finally led to less LAI, achene yield, and TDM as compared to present conditions. However, the drastic effects of increased temperature on sunflower were reduced to some extent at 550 ppm CO 2 concentration. Evaluation of different adaptation options revealed that 21 days earlier (as compared to current sowing date) planting of sunflower crop with increased plant population (83,333 plants ha −1 ) could reduce the yield losses due to climate change. Flowering is the most critical stage of sunflower to water scarcity. We recommended skipping second irrigation or 10% (337.5 mm) less irrigation water application to conserve moisture under possible water scarce conditions of 2025 and 2050.</abstract><cop>Berlin/Heidelberg</cop><pub>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</pub><pmid>29508194</pmid><doi>10.1007/s11356-018-1587-0</doi><tpages>12</tpages></addata></record>
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ispartof Environmental science and pollution research international, 2018-05, Vol.25 (14), p.13719-13730
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source MEDLINE; SpringerNature Journals
subjects Adaptation
Adaptation, Physiological - physiology
Agricultural industry
Agricultural Irrigation
Agricultural management
Agricultural production
Agronomy
Aquatic Pollution
Aridity
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Carbon dioxide
Carbon Dioxide - analysis
Carbon dioxide concentration
Climate Change
Climatic conditions
Computer simulation
Crop growth
Crops
Crops, Agricultural - growth & development
Crops, Agricultural - physiology
Dry matter
Earth and Environmental Science
Ecotoxicology
Environment
Environmental Chemistry
Environmental Health
Environmental impact
Environmental science
Flowering
Helianthus
Helianthus - growth & development
Helianthus - physiology
High temperature
Irrigation
Irrigation water
Leaf area
Leaf area index
Models, Biological
Moisture
Pakistan
Plant populations
Research Article
Temperature
Temperature effects
Waste Water Technology
Water
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
Water scarcity
title Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for sunflower in Pakistan
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