Environmental sustainability in an agricultural development project: a system dynamics approach
Regional agricultural projects based on water resource development have many potential impacts on social and natural environments. In this research, potential long-term environmental problems of the Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) related to water resources, land use, land degradation, agricult...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of environmental management 2002-03, Vol.64 (3), p.247-260 |
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| creator | Saysel, Ali Kerem Barlas, Yaman Yenigün, Orhan |
| description | Regional agricultural projects based on water resource development have many potential impacts on social and natural environments. In this research, potential long-term environmental problems of the Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) related to water resources, land use, land degradation, agricultural pollution and demography are analysed from a systems perspective. The analysis focuses on the totality of environmental, social and economic issues. For this purpose, a system dynamics simulation model (GAPSIM) has been developed as an experimental platform for policy analysis. GAPSIM was validated, first ‘structurally’, using the tests suggested by the literature and then the model ‘behaviour’ was tested and calibrated with respect to available data. The reference behaviour of GAPSIM reveals that, as the irrigated lands are developed, GAP faces significant water scarcity because of the increased intensity of cotton, the crop with the highest demands for water. Simulation results also indicate that two key environmental factors, pesticide and fertilizer consumption may reach undesirable levels. Alternative irrigation water release strategies, development rates of irrigated fields and farm rotation practices appear as important policy tools in achieving long-term environmental sustainability. GAPSIM promises to be not only a useful laboratory for policy makers of GAP, but also a useful generic structure applicable to other similar regional development projects. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1006/jema.2001.0488 |
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In this research, potential long-term environmental problems of the Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) related to water resources, land use, land degradation, agricultural pollution and demography are analysed from a systems perspective. The analysis focuses on the totality of environmental, social and economic issues. For this purpose, a system dynamics simulation model (GAPSIM) has been developed as an experimental platform for policy analysis. GAPSIM was validated, first ‘structurally’, using the tests suggested by the literature and then the model ‘behaviour’ was tested and calibrated with respect to available data. The reference behaviour of GAPSIM reveals that, as the irrigated lands are developed, GAP faces significant water scarcity because of the increased intensity of cotton, the crop with the highest demands for water. Simulation results also indicate that two key environmental factors, pesticide and fertilizer consumption may reach undesirable levels. Alternative irrigation water release strategies, development rates of irrigated fields and farm rotation practices appear as important policy tools in achieving long-term environmental sustainability. GAPSIM promises to be not only a useful laboratory for policy makers of GAP, but also a useful generic structure applicable to other similar regional development projects.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0301-4797</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1095-8630</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1006/jema.2001.0488</identifier><identifier>PMID: 12040958</identifier><identifier>CODEN: JEVMAW</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Oxford: Elsevier Ltd</publisher><subject>Agricultural development. Rural area planning ; Agricultural sustainability, irrigation-development projects, Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP), land degradation, agricultural pollution, urbanization, simulation modelling, system dynamics ; Agriculture ; Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions ; Animal, plant and microbial ecology ; Applied ecology ; Biological and medical sciences ; Cities ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Conservation, protection and management of environment and wildlife ; Demography ; Environment ; Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Pollution ; Fertilizers ; Freshwater ; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology ; General agroecology. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development. Rural area planning. Landscaping ; General agronomy. Plant production ; General aspects ; Generalities. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development ; Gossypium ; Humans ; Irrigation ; Land use ; Models, Theoretical ; Parks, reserves, wildlife conservation. 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In this research, potential long-term environmental problems of the Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) related to water resources, land use, land degradation, agricultural pollution and demography are analysed from a systems perspective. The analysis focuses on the totality of environmental, social and economic issues. For this purpose, a system dynamics simulation model (GAPSIM) has been developed as an experimental platform for policy analysis. GAPSIM was validated, first ‘structurally’, using the tests suggested by the literature and then the model ‘behaviour’ was tested and calibrated with respect to available data. The reference behaviour of GAPSIM reveals that, as the irrigated lands are developed, GAP faces significant water scarcity because of the increased intensity of cotton, the crop with the highest demands for water. Simulation results also indicate that two key environmental factors, pesticide and fertilizer consumption may reach undesirable levels. Alternative irrigation water release strategies, development rates of irrigated fields and farm rotation practices appear as important policy tools in achieving long-term environmental sustainability. GAPSIM promises to be not only a useful laboratory for policy makers of GAP, but also a useful generic structure applicable to other similar regional development projects.</description><subject>Agricultural development. Rural area planning</subject><subject>Agricultural sustainability, irrigation-development projects, Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP), land degradation, agricultural pollution, urbanization, simulation modelling, system dynamics</subject><subject>Agriculture</subject><subject>Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions</subject><subject>Animal, plant and microbial ecology</subject><subject>Applied ecology</subject><subject>Biological and medical sciences</subject><subject>Cities</subject><subject>Conservation of Natural Resources</subject><subject>Conservation, protection and management of environment and wildlife</subject><subject>Demography</subject><subject>Environment</subject><subject>Environmental Monitoring</subject><subject>Environmental Pollution</subject><subject>Fertilizers</subject><subject>Freshwater</subject><subject>Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology</subject><subject>General agroecology. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development. Rural area planning. Landscaping</subject><subject>General agronomy. Plant production</subject><subject>General aspects</subject><subject>Generalities. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development</subject><subject>Gossypium</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Irrigation</subject><subject>Land use</subject><subject>Models, Theoretical</subject><subject>Parks, reserves, wildlife conservation. Endangered species: population survey and restocking</subject><subject>Pesticides</subject><subject>Pollution</subject><subject>Urbanization</subject><issn>0301-4797</issn><issn>1095-8630</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2002</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNp10N-L1DAQB_BwKHfr6auPUoTzreukaX7UNznuVDjwRZ_DbDLVLG26Ju3C_vem7MKBIARCmE9mhi9jbzlsOYD6uKcRtw0A30JrzBXbcOhkbZSAF2wDAnjd6k7fsFc57wFANFxfsxveQFuc2TD7EI8hTXGkOONQ5SXPGCLuwhDmUxViheX8SsEtw7ykIjwdaZgOq68OadqTmz9VWOVTnmms_CniGFyu8FCK6H6_Zi97HDK9udy37Ofjw4_7r_XT9y_f7j8_1a5tzFzzFkghSSkVGgm6PNHvlG4lF4q44BpAS68VaI8tGmqMJuoByAtJphe37MO5bxn7Z6E82zFkR8OAkaYlW951QpQpBb7_B-6nJcWyWzFSNaBaXdD2jFyack7U20MKI6aT5WDX3O2au11zt2vu5cO7S9dlN5J_5pegC7i7AMwOhz5hdCE_OyE73gEvzpwdlbCOgZLNLlB05EMqUVs_hf_t8BfmvZ7e</recordid><startdate>20020301</startdate><enddate>20020301</enddate><creator>Saysel, Ali Kerem</creator><creator>Barlas, Yaman</creator><creator>Yenigün, Orhan</creator><general>Elsevier Ltd</general><general>Elsevier</general><general>Academic Press Ltd</general><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7QH</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>H97</scope><scope>JBE</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>SOI</scope><scope>7T4</scope><scope>7TV</scope><scope>7U6</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20020301</creationdate><title>Environmental sustainability in an agricultural development project: a system dynamics approach</title><author>Saysel, Ali Kerem ; Barlas, Yaman ; Yenigün, Orhan</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c428t-140e6ae5556a850740eadb6745136e13170075d7607da4a8e287eef00ed35e8f3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2002</creationdate><topic>Agricultural development. 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| ispartof | Journal of environmental management, 2002-03, Vol.64 (3), p.247-260 |
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| subjects | Agricultural development. Rural area planning Agricultural sustainability, irrigation-development projects, Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP), land degradation, agricultural pollution, urbanization, simulation modelling, system dynamics Agriculture Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions Animal, plant and microbial ecology Applied ecology Biological and medical sciences Cities Conservation of Natural Resources Conservation, protection and management of environment and wildlife Demography Environment Environmental Monitoring Environmental Pollution Fertilizers Freshwater Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology General agroecology. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development. Rural area planning. Landscaping General agronomy. Plant production General aspects Generalities. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development Gossypium Humans Irrigation Land use Models, Theoretical Parks, reserves, wildlife conservation. Endangered species: population survey and restocking Pesticides Pollution Urbanization |
| title | Environmental sustainability in an agricultural development project: a system dynamics approach |
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