Coupled air-sea response to solar forcing in the Pacific region during northern winter

Observations since the middle of the 19th century show that the decadal solar oscillation at its peaks strengthens the major convergence zones in the tropical Pacific (Intertropical Convergence Zone, ITCZ, and South Pacific Convergence Zone, SPCZ) during northern winter. Through an amplifying set of coupled feedbacks, a set of processes is described that link solar forcing and its response in the tropical Pacific with reductions in precipitation in the northwest United States. The process begins with an increase in solar forcing which results in a strengthening of the major convergence zones in the tropical Pacific. This then increases the precipitation in those regions and increases the southeast trade winds. Stronger trades increase the upwelling of colder water in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extend the cold tongue westward, thus reducing precipitation in the western Pacific. This redistribution of diabatic heating and associated convective heating anomalies thus produces anomalies in the tropical Hadley (north‐south) and Walker (east‐west) circulations. The former weakens as subsidence in equatorial latitudes is enhanced; the latter strengthens and extends westward. Additionally, the resulting anomalous Rossby wave response in the atmosphere, and consequent positive sea level pressure anomalies in the eastern region of the Aleutian low in the North Pacific that extends to western North America, is associated with reductions of precipitation in the northwest United States. The response of the climate system to solar forcing is manifested as a strengthening of the climatological precipitation maxima in the tropics.