The hidden simplicity of subduction megathrust earthquakes
The largest observed earthquakes occur on subduction interfaces and frequently cause widespread damage and loss of life. Understanding the rupture behavior of megathrust events is crucial for earthquake rupture physics, as well as for earthquake early-warning systems. However, the large variability...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2017-09, Vol.357 (6357), p.1277-1281 |
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| creator | Meier, M.-A. Ampuero, J. P. Heaton, T. H. |
| description | The largest observed earthquakes occur on subduction interfaces and frequently cause widespread damage and loss of life. Understanding the rupture behavior of megathrust events is crucial for earthquake rupture physics, as well as for earthquake early-warning systems. However, the large variability in behavior between individual events seemingly defies a description with a simple unifying model. Here we use three source time function (STF) data sets for subduction zone earthquakes, with moment magnitude M
w ≥ 7, and show that such large ruptures share a typical universal behavior. The median STF is scalable between events with different sizes, grows linearly, and is nearly triangular. The deviations from the median behavior are multiplicative and Gaussian—that is, they are proportionally larger for larger events. Our observations suggest that earthquake magnitudes cannot be predicted from the characteristics of rupture onsets. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1126/science.aan5643 |
| format | Article |
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w ≥ 7, and show that such large ruptures share a typical universal behavior. The median STF is scalable between events with different sizes, grows linearly, and is nearly triangular. The deviations from the median behavior are multiplicative and Gaussian—that is, they are proportionally larger for larger events. Our observations suggest that earthquake magnitudes cannot be predicted from the characteristics of rupture onsets.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0036-8075</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1095-9203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1126/science.aan5643</identifier><identifier>PMID: 28935803</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: American Association for the Advancement of Science</publisher><subject>Algorithms ; Early warning systems ; Earthquake damage ; Earthquake prediction ; Earthquakes ; Emergency communications systems ; Energy ; Injury prevention ; Interfaces ; Physics ; Rupture ; Rupturing ; Seismic activity ; Subduction (geology) ; Time functions ; Warning systems</subject><ispartof>Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science), 2017-09, Vol.357 (6357), p.1277-1281</ispartof><rights>Copyright © 2017 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science</rights><rights>Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.</rights><rights>Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-a436t-fa3755147052cc6d10311c8c51cfa08e0f3cbaa180c50c73f2ced896d6bde1613</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-a436t-fa3755147052cc6d10311c8c51cfa08e0f3cbaa180c50c73f2ced896d6bde1613</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-2949-8602 ; 0000-0003-3363-2197 ; 0000-0002-4827-7987</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/26399889$$EPDF$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/26399889$$EHTML$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,799,2871,2872,27901,27902,57992,58225</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28935803$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Meier, M.-A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ampuero, J. P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Heaton, T. H.</creatorcontrib><title>The hidden simplicity of subduction megathrust earthquakes</title><title>Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science)</title><addtitle>Science</addtitle><description>The largest observed earthquakes occur on subduction interfaces and frequently cause widespread damage and loss of life. Understanding the rupture behavior of megathrust events is crucial for earthquake rupture physics, as well as for earthquake early-warning systems. However, the large variability in behavior between individual events seemingly defies a description with a simple unifying model. Here we use three source time function (STF) data sets for subduction zone earthquakes, with moment magnitude M
w ≥ 7, and show that such large ruptures share a typical universal behavior. The median STF is scalable between events with different sizes, grows linearly, and is nearly triangular. The deviations from the median behavior are multiplicative and Gaussian—that is, they are proportionally larger for larger events. Our observations suggest that earthquake magnitudes cannot be predicted from the characteristics of rupture onsets.</description><subject>Algorithms</subject><subject>Early warning systems</subject><subject>Earthquake damage</subject><subject>Earthquake prediction</subject><subject>Earthquakes</subject><subject>Emergency communications systems</subject><subject>Energy</subject><subject>Injury prevention</subject><subject>Interfaces</subject><subject>Physics</subject><subject>Rupture</subject><subject>Rupturing</subject><subject>Seismic activity</subject><subject>Subduction (geology)</subject><subject>Time functions</subject><subject>Warning systems</subject><issn>0036-8075</issn><issn>1095-9203</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2017</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNpdkD1PwzAQhi0EoqUwM4EisbCkPcexY7Ohii-pEkuZI8d2iEs-WjsZ-u9x1QASw-mG97lXpwehawxzjBO28MqaVpm5lC1lKTlBUwyCxiIBcoqmAITFHDI6QRfebwBCJsg5miRcEMqBTNHDujJRZbU2beRts62tsv0-6srID4UeVG-7NmrMp-wrN_g-MtL11W6QX8ZforNS1t5cjXuGPp6f1svXePX-8rZ8XMUyJayPS0kySnGaAU2UYhoDwVhxRbEqJXADJVGFlJiDoqAyUibKaC6YZoU2mGEyQ_fH3q3rdoPxfd5Yr0xdy9Z0g8-xSBOW0QySgN79Qzfd4NrwXaCyVISBQ-HiSCnXee9MmW-dbaTb5xjyg9Z81JqPWsPF7dg7FI3Rv_yPxwDcHIGN7zv3lzMiBA_QN0aLftA</recordid><startdate>20170922</startdate><enddate>20170922</enddate><creator>Meier, M.-A.</creator><creator>Ampuero, J. 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w ≥ 7, and show that such large ruptures share a typical universal behavior. The median STF is scalable between events with different sizes, grows linearly, and is nearly triangular. The deviations from the median behavior are multiplicative and Gaussian—that is, they are proportionally larger for larger events. Our observations suggest that earthquake magnitudes cannot be predicted from the characteristics of rupture onsets.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>American Association for the Advancement of Science</pub><pmid>28935803</pmid><doi>10.1126/science.aan5643</doi><tpages>5</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2949-8602</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3363-2197</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4827-7987</orcidid></addata></record> |
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| source | American Association for the Advancement of Science; Jstor Complete Legacy |
| subjects | Algorithms Early warning systems Earthquake damage Earthquake prediction Earthquakes Emergency communications systems Energy Injury prevention Interfaces Physics Rupture Rupturing Seismic activity Subduction (geology) Time functions Warning systems |
| title | The hidden simplicity of subduction megathrust earthquakes |
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