Long-term Risk of Pancreatic Malignancy in Patients With Branch Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm in a Referral Center

Little is known about the development of branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs). We evaluated long-term outcomes of a large cohort of patients with BD-IPMNs to determine risk of malignancy and define a subset of low-risk BD-IPMNs. We performed a retrospective analysis of data from 577 patients with suspected or presumed BD-IPMN under surveillance at the Massachusetts General Hospital. Patients underwent cross-sectional imaging analysis at 3 months or later after their initial diagnosis. The diagnosis of BD-IPMN was based on the presence of unilocular or multilocular cysts of the pancreas and a non-dilated main pancreatic duct (1.5 cm, 19 (7.5%) developed malignancy (P = .01). In a retrospective analysis of patients with BD-IPMNs under surveillance, their overall risk of malignancy, almost 8%, lasted for 10 years or more, supporting continued surveillance after 5 years. Cysts that remain ≤1.5