Severity assessment in maximally treated ICH patients: The max-ICH score

OBJECTIVE:As common prognostication models in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) are developed variably including patients with early (

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Veröffentlicht in:Neurology 2017-08, Vol.89 (5), p.423-431
Hauptverfasser: Sembill, Jochen A, Gerner, Stefan T, Volbers, Bastian, Bobinger, Tobias, Lücking, Hannes, Kloska, Stephan P, Schwab, Stefan, Huttner, Hagen B, Kuramatsu, Joji B
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container_end_page 431
container_issue 5
container_start_page 423
container_title Neurology
container_volume 89
creator Sembill, Jochen A
Gerner, Stefan T
Volbers, Bastian
Bobinger, Tobias
Lücking, Hannes
Kloska, Stephan P
Schwab, Stefan
Huttner, Hagen B
Kuramatsu, Joji B
description OBJECTIVE:As common prognostication models in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) are developed variably including patients with early (
doi_str_mv 10.1212/WNL.0000000000004174
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METHODS:This observational cohort study analyzed consecutive ICH patients (n = 583) from a prospective registry over 5 years. We characterized the influence of ECL on overall outcome by propensity score matching and on conventional prognostication using receiver operating characteristic analyses. We established the max-ICH score based on independent predictors of 12-month functional outcome in maximally treated patients and compared it to existing models. RESULTS:Prevalence of ECL was 19.2% (n = 112/583) and all of these patients died. Yet propensity score matching displayed that 50.7% (n = 35/69) theoretically could have survived, with 18.8% (n = 13/69) possibly reaching favorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 0–3). Conventional prognostication seemed to be confounded by ECL, documented by a decreased predictive validity (area under the curve [AUC] 0.67, confidence interval [CI] 0.61–0.73 vs AUC 0.80, CI 0.76–0.83; p &lt; 0.01), overestimating poor outcome (mortality by 44.8%, unfavorable outcome by 10.1%) in maximally treated patients. In these patients, the novel max-ICH score (0–10) integrates strength-adjusted predictors, i.e., NIH Stroke Scale score, age, intraventricular hemorrhage, anticoagulation, and ICH volume (lobar and nonlobar), demonstrating improved predictive accuracy for functional outcome (12 monthsAUC 0.81, CI 0.77–0.85; p &lt; 0.01). The max-ICH score may more accurately delineate potentials of aggressive care, showing favorable outcome in 45.4% (n = 214/471) and a long-term mortality rate of only 30.1% (n = 142/471). CONCLUSIONS:Care limitations significantly influenced the validity of common prognostication models resulting in overestimation of poor outcome. The max-ICH score demonstrated increased predictive validity with minimized confounding by care limitations, making it a useful tool for severity assessment in ICH patients.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0028-3878</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1526-632X</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000004174</identifier><identifier>PMID: 28679602</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: American Academy of Neurology</publisher><subject>Age Factors ; Aged ; Area Under Curve ; Cerebral Hemorrhage - diagnosis ; Cerebral Hemorrhage - mortality ; Cerebral Hemorrhage - therapy ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Prognosis ; Propensity Score ; Prospective Studies ; Recovery of Function ; Registries ; ROC Curve ; Severity of Illness Index ; Treatment Outcome</subject><ispartof>Neurology, 2017-08, Vol.89 (5), p.423-431</ispartof><rights>2017 American Academy of Neurology</rights><rights>2017 American Academy of Neurology.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3054-31aae63c479198f03e3af88e93008d47dd1298a1a465b418a2da3e9cca2033603</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27901,27902</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28679602$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Sembill, Jochen A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gerner, Stefan T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Volbers, Bastian</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bobinger, Tobias</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lücking, Hannes</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kloska, Stephan P</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Schwab, Stefan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Huttner, Hagen B</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kuramatsu, Joji B</creatorcontrib><title>Severity assessment in maximally treated ICH patients: The max-ICH score</title><title>Neurology</title><addtitle>Neurology</addtitle><description>OBJECTIVE:As common prognostication models in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) are developed variably including patients with early (&lt;24 hours) care limitations (ECL), we investigated its interaction with prognostication in maximally treated patients and sought to provide a new unbiased severity assessment tool. METHODS:This observational cohort study analyzed consecutive ICH patients (n = 583) from a prospective registry over 5 years. We characterized the influence of ECL on overall outcome by propensity score matching and on conventional prognostication using receiver operating characteristic analyses. We established the max-ICH score based on independent predictors of 12-month functional outcome in maximally treated patients and compared it to existing models. RESULTS:Prevalence of ECL was 19.2% (n = 112/583) and all of these patients died. Yet propensity score matching displayed that 50.7% (n = 35/69) theoretically could have survived, with 18.8% (n = 13/69) possibly reaching favorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 0–3). Conventional prognostication seemed to be confounded by ECL, documented by a decreased predictive validity (area under the curve [AUC] 0.67, confidence interval [CI] 0.61–0.73 vs AUC 0.80, CI 0.76–0.83; p &lt; 0.01), overestimating poor outcome (mortality by 44.8%, unfavorable outcome by 10.1%) in maximally treated patients. In these patients, the novel max-ICH score (0–10) integrates strength-adjusted predictors, i.e., NIH Stroke Scale score, age, intraventricular hemorrhage, anticoagulation, and ICH volume (lobar and nonlobar), demonstrating improved predictive accuracy for functional outcome (12 monthsAUC 0.81, CI 0.77–0.85; p &lt; 0.01). The max-ICH score may more accurately delineate potentials of aggressive care, showing favorable outcome in 45.4% (n = 214/471) and a long-term mortality rate of only 30.1% (n = 142/471). CONCLUSIONS:Care limitations significantly influenced the validity of common prognostication models resulting in overestimation of poor outcome. The max-ICH score demonstrated increased predictive validity with minimized confounding by care limitations, making it a useful tool for severity assessment in ICH patients.</description><subject>Age Factors</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Area Under Curve</subject><subject>Cerebral Hemorrhage - diagnosis</subject><subject>Cerebral Hemorrhage - mortality</subject><subject>Cerebral Hemorrhage - therapy</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Prognosis</subject><subject>Propensity Score</subject><subject>Prospective Studies</subject><subject>Recovery of Function</subject><subject>Registries</subject><subject>ROC Curve</subject><subject>Severity of Illness Index</subject><subject>Treatment Outcome</subject><issn>0028-3878</issn><issn>1526-632X</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2017</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kE1Lw0AQhhdRbP34ByI5ekndryS73qSoLRQ9WNHbMk0mNLpp6u7G2n9vSquIB-cyMPO87zAvIWeMDhhn_PL5fjKgv0qyTO6RPkt4GqeCv-yTPqVcxUJlqkeOvH-ltFtm-pD0uEoznVLeJ6NH_EBXhXUE3qP3NS5CVC2iGj6rGqxdR8EhBCyi8XAULSFUHeCvoukcN0y8mfq8cXhCDkqwHk93_Zg83d5Mh6N48nA3Hl5P4lzQRMaCAWAqcplpplVJBQoolUItKFWFzIqCca2AgUyTmWQKeAECdZ4Dp0KkVByTi63v0jXvLfpg6srnaC0ssGm9YZqlGdUq4R0qt2juGu8dlmbpuqfc2jBqNhmaLkPzN8NOdr670M5qLH5E36F1gNoCq8YGdP7Ntit0Zo5gw_x_7y8yLHwE</recordid><startdate>20170801</startdate><enddate>20170801</enddate><creator>Sembill, Jochen A</creator><creator>Gerner, Stefan T</creator><creator>Volbers, Bastian</creator><creator>Bobinger, Tobias</creator><creator>Lücking, Hannes</creator><creator>Kloska, Stephan P</creator><creator>Schwab, Stefan</creator><creator>Huttner, Hagen B</creator><creator>Kuramatsu, Joji B</creator><general>American Academy of Neurology</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20170801</creationdate><title>Severity assessment in maximally treated ICH patients: The max-ICH score</title><author>Sembill, Jochen A ; Gerner, Stefan T ; Volbers, Bastian ; Bobinger, Tobias ; Lücking, Hannes ; Kloska, Stephan P ; Schwab, Stefan ; Huttner, Hagen B ; Kuramatsu, Joji B</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c3054-31aae63c479198f03e3af88e93008d47dd1298a1a465b418a2da3e9cca2033603</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2017</creationdate><topic>Age Factors</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Area Under Curve</topic><topic>Cerebral Hemorrhage - diagnosis</topic><topic>Cerebral Hemorrhage - mortality</topic><topic>Cerebral Hemorrhage - therapy</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Prognosis</topic><topic>Propensity Score</topic><topic>Prospective Studies</topic><topic>Recovery of Function</topic><topic>Registries</topic><topic>ROC Curve</topic><topic>Severity of Illness Index</topic><topic>Treatment Outcome</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Sembill, Jochen A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gerner, Stefan T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Volbers, Bastian</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bobinger, Tobias</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lücking, Hannes</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kloska, Stephan P</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Schwab, Stefan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Huttner, Hagen B</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kuramatsu, Joji B</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Neurology</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Sembill, Jochen A</au><au>Gerner, Stefan T</au><au>Volbers, Bastian</au><au>Bobinger, Tobias</au><au>Lücking, Hannes</au><au>Kloska, Stephan P</au><au>Schwab, Stefan</au><au>Huttner, Hagen B</au><au>Kuramatsu, Joji B</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Severity assessment in maximally treated ICH patients: The max-ICH score</atitle><jtitle>Neurology</jtitle><addtitle>Neurology</addtitle><date>2017-08-01</date><risdate>2017</risdate><volume>89</volume><issue>5</issue><spage>423</spage><epage>431</epage><pages>423-431</pages><issn>0028-3878</issn><eissn>1526-632X</eissn><abstract>OBJECTIVE:As common prognostication models in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) are developed variably including patients with early (&lt;24 hours) care limitations (ECL), we investigated its interaction with prognostication in maximally treated patients and sought to provide a new unbiased severity assessment tool. METHODS:This observational cohort study analyzed consecutive ICH patients (n = 583) from a prospective registry over 5 years. We characterized the influence of ECL on overall outcome by propensity score matching and on conventional prognostication using receiver operating characteristic analyses. We established the max-ICH score based on independent predictors of 12-month functional outcome in maximally treated patients and compared it to existing models. RESULTS:Prevalence of ECL was 19.2% (n = 112/583) and all of these patients died. Yet propensity score matching displayed that 50.7% (n = 35/69) theoretically could have survived, with 18.8% (n = 13/69) possibly reaching favorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 0–3). Conventional prognostication seemed to be confounded by ECL, documented by a decreased predictive validity (area under the curve [AUC] 0.67, confidence interval [CI] 0.61–0.73 vs AUC 0.80, CI 0.76–0.83; p &lt; 0.01), overestimating poor outcome (mortality by 44.8%, unfavorable outcome by 10.1%) in maximally treated patients. In these patients, the novel max-ICH score (0–10) integrates strength-adjusted predictors, i.e., NIH Stroke Scale score, age, intraventricular hemorrhage, anticoagulation, and ICH volume (lobar and nonlobar), demonstrating improved predictive accuracy for functional outcome (12 monthsAUC 0.81, CI 0.77–0.85; p &lt; 0.01). The max-ICH score may more accurately delineate potentials of aggressive care, showing favorable outcome in 45.4% (n = 214/471) and a long-term mortality rate of only 30.1% (n = 142/471). CONCLUSIONS:Care limitations significantly influenced the validity of common prognostication models resulting in overestimation of poor outcome. The max-ICH score demonstrated increased predictive validity with minimized confounding by care limitations, making it a useful tool for severity assessment in ICH patients.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>American Academy of Neurology</pub><pmid>28679602</pmid><doi>10.1212/WNL.0000000000004174</doi><tpages>9</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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source MEDLINE; Alma/SFX Local Collection; Journals@Ovid Complete
subjects Age Factors
Aged
Area Under Curve
Cerebral Hemorrhage - diagnosis
Cerebral Hemorrhage - mortality
Cerebral Hemorrhage - therapy
Female
Humans
Male
Prognosis
Propensity Score
Prospective Studies
Recovery of Function
Registries
ROC Curve
Severity of Illness Index
Treatment Outcome
title Severity assessment in maximally treated ICH patients: The max-ICH score
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