Changes in mean forest age in Canada’s forests could limit future increases in area burned but compromise potential harvestable conifer volumes
Forest fire activity is projected to increase with climate change in Canada, but vegetation feedbacks are usually not considered. Using new information on the selectivity or avoidance of fire as a function of stand age and composition, we ran simple simulation models that consider the changes in the...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Canadian journal of forest research 2017-06, Vol.47 (6), p.755-764 |
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creator | Boulanger, Yan Girardin, Martin Bernier, Pierre Y Gauthier, Sylvie Beaudoin, André Guindon, Luc |
description | Forest fire activity is projected to increase with climate change in Canada, but vegetation feedbacks are usually not considered. Using new information on the selectivity or avoidance of fire as a function of stand age and composition, we ran simple simulation models that consider the changes in the regional age matrices induced by fire and harvesting to project future burn rates. We also projected estimated future regional vulnerability of timber supply to fire by considering these new burn rates. The inclusion of age-related feedbacks would have a large impact on projected increases in burn rates, mostly in a very fire active zone under aggressive climate forcing. Projected burn rates would still increase, but would be 50% less in 2100 than if projected without this biotic feedback in some zones. Negative feedbacks would be virtually nonexistent when potential burning rates are below 1%, whereas realized burning rates would be lowered by more than a 0.5 percentage point when potential burning rates exceed 2.5%. Including fire–vegetation feedbacks had virtually no impact on total volume harvested. As fire burns more old-growth coniferous stands, slightly negative impacts were projected on conifer harvested almost everywhere. These results underline the need to incorporate fire–vegetation feedbacks when projecting future burn rates. |
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Using new information on the selectivity or avoidance of fire as a function of stand age and composition, we ran simple simulation models that consider the changes in the regional age matrices induced by fire and harvesting to project future burn rates. We also projected estimated future regional vulnerability of timber supply to fire by considering these new burn rates. The inclusion of age-related feedbacks would have a large impact on projected increases in burn rates, mostly in a very fire active zone under aggressive climate forcing. Projected burn rates would still increase, but would be 50% less in 2100 than if projected without this biotic feedback in some zones. Negative feedbacks would be virtually nonexistent when potential burning rates are below 1%, whereas realized burning rates would be lowered by more than a 0.5 percentage point when potential burning rates exceed 2.5%. Including fire–vegetation feedbacks had virtually no impact on total volume harvested. As fire burns more old-growth coniferous stands, slightly negative impacts were projected on conifer harvested almost everywhere. These results underline the need to incorporate fire–vegetation feedbacks when projecting future burn rates.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0045-5067</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1208-6037</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1139/cjfr-2016-0445</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Ottawa: NRC Research Press</publisher><subject>Age ; approvisionnement en bois ; Avoidance ; boreal forest ; Burning ; Burning rate ; Canada ; changement climatique ; Climate ; Climate change ; Computer simulation ; Conifers ; Environmental aspects ; Feedback ; feux de forêt ; fire–vegetation feedbacks ; Forecasts and trends ; Forest & brush fires ; Forest fires ; Forests ; forêt boréale ; Harvesting ; Physiological aspects ; rétroactions entre le feu et la végétation ; Selectivity ; Simulation ; Studies ; Timber ; Timber supply ; Vegetation</subject><ispartof>Canadian journal of forest research, 2017-06, Vol.47 (6), p.755-764</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2017 NRC Research Press</rights><rights>Copyright Canadian Science Publishing NRC Research Press Jun 2017</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c582t-eb8a50e6457281d0e86739a4eb43108890c1361809f30c776fd06c4abae1f3173</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c582t-eb8a50e6457281d0e86739a4eb43108890c1361809f30c776fd06c4abae1f3173</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27924,27925</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Boulanger, Yan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Girardin, Martin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bernier, Pierre Y</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gauthier, Sylvie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Beaudoin, André</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Guindon, Luc</creatorcontrib><title>Changes in mean forest age in Canada’s forests could limit future increases in area burned but compromise potential harvestable conifer volumes</title><title>Canadian journal of forest research</title><description>Forest fire activity is projected to increase with climate change in Canada, but vegetation feedbacks are usually not considered. Using new information on the selectivity or avoidance of fire as a function of stand age and composition, we ran simple simulation models that consider the changes in the regional age matrices induced by fire and harvesting to project future burn rates. We also projected estimated future regional vulnerability of timber supply to fire by considering these new burn rates. The inclusion of age-related feedbacks would have a large impact on projected increases in burn rates, mostly in a very fire active zone under aggressive climate forcing. Projected burn rates would still increase, but would be 50% less in 2100 than if projected without this biotic feedback in some zones. Negative feedbacks would be virtually nonexistent when potential burning rates are below 1%, whereas realized burning rates would be lowered by more than a 0.5 percentage point when potential burning rates exceed 2.5%. Including fire–vegetation feedbacks had virtually no impact on total volume harvested. As fire burns more old-growth coniferous stands, slightly negative impacts were projected on conifer harvested almost everywhere. These results underline the need to incorporate fire–vegetation feedbacks when projecting future burn rates.</description><subject>Age</subject><subject>approvisionnement en bois</subject><subject>Avoidance</subject><subject>boreal forest</subject><subject>Burning</subject><subject>Burning rate</subject><subject>Canada</subject><subject>changement climatique</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Conifers</subject><subject>Environmental aspects</subject><subject>Feedback</subject><subject>feux de forêt</subject><subject>fire–vegetation feedbacks</subject><subject>Forecasts and trends</subject><subject>Forest & brush fires</subject><subject>Forest fires</subject><subject>Forests</subject><subject>forêt boréale</subject><subject>Harvesting</subject><subject>Physiological aspects</subject><subject>rétroactions entre le feu et la végétation</subject><subject>Selectivity</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Timber</subject><subject>Timber supply</subject><subject>Vegetation</subject><issn>0045-5067</issn><issn>1208-6037</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2017</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqVks2KFDEUhQtRsB3dug660UWNN5X6SS2HZtSBQcGfdbiVuqlOU5XqSaoG3c0rzNLX80lM0Q3a0iCSRcLNdw4n4STJcw7nnIv6jd4an2bAyxTyvHiQrHgGMi1BVA-TFUBepAWU1ePkSQhbABClgFVyv96g6ygw69hA6JgZPYWJYUfLaI0OW_x59yMcLgLT49y3rLeDnZiZp9kvoPaEYe-C8cia2Ttq4zZFftj5cbCB2G6cyE0We7ZBfxvdsOkpAs4a8ux27OeBwtPkkcE-0LPDfpZ8fXv5Zf0-vf747mp9cZ3qQmZTSo3EAqjMiyqTvAWSZSVqzKnJBQcpa9BclFxCbQToqipNC6XOsUHiRvBKnCWv9r4x3c0cw6iYUVPfo6NxDorXEM0lz-qIvvwL3Y7xgTFdpARALYHDb6rDnpR1Zpw86sVUXeR1FT8fgEcqPUF15MhjPzoyNo6P-BcneL2zN-pP6PwEFFdLg9UnXV8fCSIz0bepwzkEdfX503-wH47ZQxDtxxA8GbXzdkD_XXFQS0vV0lK1tFQtLY0Cvhc4HzsUCL3e_EvzC7IP6Fg</recordid><startdate>20170601</startdate><enddate>20170601</enddate><creator>Boulanger, Yan</creator><creator>Girardin, Martin</creator><creator>Bernier, Pierre Y</creator><creator>Gauthier, Sylvie</creator><creator>Beaudoin, André</creator><creator>Guindon, Luc</creator><general>NRC Research Press</general><general>Canadian Science Publishing NRC Research Press</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>ISN</scope><scope>ISR</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>7T7</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>P64</scope><scope>RC3</scope><scope>U9A</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20170601</creationdate><title>Changes in mean forest age in Canada’s forests could limit future increases in area burned but compromise potential harvestable conifer volumes</title><author>Boulanger, Yan ; Girardin, Martin ; Bernier, Pierre Y ; Gauthier, Sylvie ; Beaudoin, André ; Guindon, Luc</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c582t-eb8a50e6457281d0e86739a4eb43108890c1361809f30c776fd06c4abae1f3173</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2017</creationdate><topic>Age</topic><topic>approvisionnement en bois</topic><topic>Avoidance</topic><topic>boreal forest</topic><topic>Burning</topic><topic>Burning rate</topic><topic>Canada</topic><topic>changement climatique</topic><topic>Climate</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Computer simulation</topic><topic>Conifers</topic><topic>Environmental aspects</topic><topic>Feedback</topic><topic>feux de forêt</topic><topic>fire–vegetation feedbacks</topic><topic>Forecasts and trends</topic><topic>Forest & brush fires</topic><topic>Forest fires</topic><topic>Forests</topic><topic>forêt boréale</topic><topic>Harvesting</topic><topic>Physiological aspects</topic><topic>rétroactions entre le feu et la végétation</topic><topic>Selectivity</topic><topic>Simulation</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Timber</topic><topic>Timber supply</topic><topic>Vegetation</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Boulanger, Yan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Girardin, Martin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bernier, Pierre Y</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gauthier, Sylvie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Beaudoin, André</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Guindon, Luc</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Gale In Context: Canada</collection><collection>Gale In Context: Science</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Entomology Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Industrial and Applied Microbiology Abstracts (Microbiology A)</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Genetics Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Canadian journal of forest research</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Boulanger, Yan</au><au>Girardin, Martin</au><au>Bernier, Pierre Y</au><au>Gauthier, Sylvie</au><au>Beaudoin, André</au><au>Guindon, Luc</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Changes in mean forest age in Canada’s forests could limit future increases in area burned but compromise potential harvestable conifer volumes</atitle><jtitle>Canadian journal of forest research</jtitle><date>2017-06-01</date><risdate>2017</risdate><volume>47</volume><issue>6</issue><spage>755</spage><epage>764</epage><pages>755-764</pages><issn>0045-5067</issn><eissn>1208-6037</eissn><abstract>Forest fire activity is projected to increase with climate change in Canada, but vegetation feedbacks are usually not considered. Using new information on the selectivity or avoidance of fire as a function of stand age and composition, we ran simple simulation models that consider the changes in the regional age matrices induced by fire and harvesting to project future burn rates. We also projected estimated future regional vulnerability of timber supply to fire by considering these new burn rates. The inclusion of age-related feedbacks would have a large impact on projected increases in burn rates, mostly in a very fire active zone under aggressive climate forcing. Projected burn rates would still increase, but would be 50% less in 2100 than if projected without this biotic feedback in some zones. Negative feedbacks would be virtually nonexistent when potential burning rates are below 1%, whereas realized burning rates would be lowered by more than a 0.5 percentage point when potential burning rates exceed 2.5%. Including fire–vegetation feedbacks had virtually no impact on total volume harvested. As fire burns more old-growth coniferous stands, slightly negative impacts were projected on conifer harvested almost everywhere. These results underline the need to incorporate fire–vegetation feedbacks when projecting future burn rates.</abstract><cop>Ottawa</cop><pub>NRC Research Press</pub><doi>10.1139/cjfr-2016-0445</doi><tpages>10</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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subjects | Age approvisionnement en bois Avoidance boreal forest Burning Burning rate Canada changement climatique Climate Climate change Computer simulation Conifers Environmental aspects Feedback feux de forêt fire–vegetation feedbacks Forecasts and trends Forest & brush fires Forest fires Forests forêt boréale Harvesting Physiological aspects rétroactions entre le feu et la végétation Selectivity Simulation Studies Timber Timber supply Vegetation |
title | Changes in mean forest age in Canada’s forests could limit future increases in area burned but compromise potential harvestable conifer volumes |
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