Changes in mean forest age in Canada’s forests could limit future increases in area burned but compromise potential harvestable conifer volumes

Forest fire activity is projected to increase with climate change in Canada, but vegetation feedbacks are usually not considered. Using new information on the selectivity or avoidance of fire as a function of stand age and composition, we ran simple simulation models that consider the changes in the...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:
Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Canadian journal of forest research 2017-06, Vol.47 (6), p.755-764
Hauptverfasser: Boulanger, Yan, Girardin, Martin, Bernier, Pierre Y, Gauthier, Sylvie, Beaudoin, André, Guindon, Luc
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Online-Zugang:Volltext
Tags: Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
container_end_page 764
container_issue 6
container_start_page 755
container_title Canadian journal of forest research
container_volume 47
creator Boulanger, Yan
Girardin, Martin
Bernier, Pierre Y
Gauthier, Sylvie
Beaudoin, André
Guindon, Luc
description Forest fire activity is projected to increase with climate change in Canada, but vegetation feedbacks are usually not considered. Using new information on the selectivity or avoidance of fire as a function of stand age and composition, we ran simple simulation models that consider the changes in the regional age matrices induced by fire and harvesting to project future burn rates. We also projected estimated future regional vulnerability of timber supply to fire by considering these new burn rates. The inclusion of age-related feedbacks would have a large impact on projected increases in burn rates, mostly in a very fire active zone under aggressive climate forcing. Projected burn rates would still increase, but would be 50% less in 2100 than if projected without this biotic feedback in some zones. Negative feedbacks would be virtually nonexistent when potential burning rates are below 1%, whereas realized burning rates would be lowered by more than a 0.5 percentage point when potential burning rates exceed 2.5%. Including fire–vegetation feedbacks had virtually no impact on total volume harvested. As fire burns more old-growth coniferous stands, slightly negative impacts were projected on conifer harvested almost everywhere. These results underline the need to incorporate fire–vegetation feedbacks when projecting future burn rates.
doi_str_mv 10.1139/cjfr-2016-0445
format Article
fullrecord <record><control><sourceid>gale_proqu</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_1906458129</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><galeid>A497506001</galeid><sourcerecordid>A497506001</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c582t-eb8a50e6457281d0e86739a4eb43108890c1361809f30c776fd06c4abae1f3173</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNqVks2KFDEUhQtRsB3dug660UWNN5X6SS2HZtSBQcGfdbiVuqlOU5XqSaoG3c0rzNLX80lM0Q3a0iCSRcLNdw4n4STJcw7nnIv6jd4an2bAyxTyvHiQrHgGMi1BVA-TFUBepAWU1ePkSQhbABClgFVyv96g6ygw69hA6JgZPYWJYUfLaI0OW_x59yMcLgLT49y3rLeDnZiZp9kvoPaEYe-C8cia2Ttq4zZFftj5cbCB2G6cyE0We7ZBfxvdsOkpAs4a8ux27OeBwtPkkcE-0LPDfpZ8fXv5Zf0-vf747mp9cZ3qQmZTSo3EAqjMiyqTvAWSZSVqzKnJBQcpa9BclFxCbQToqipNC6XOsUHiRvBKnCWv9r4x3c0cw6iYUVPfo6NxDorXEM0lz-qIvvwL3Y7xgTFdpARALYHDb6rDnpR1Zpw86sVUXeR1FT8fgEcqPUF15MhjPzoyNo6P-BcneL2zN-pP6PwEFFdLg9UnXV8fCSIz0bepwzkEdfX503-wH47ZQxDtxxA8GbXzdkD_XXFQS0vV0lK1tFQtLY0Cvhc4HzsUCL3e_EvzC7IP6Fg</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>1930098010</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Changes in mean forest age in Canada’s forests could limit future increases in area burned but compromise potential harvestable conifer volumes</title><source>Alma/SFX Local Collection</source><creator>Boulanger, Yan ; Girardin, Martin ; Bernier, Pierre Y ; Gauthier, Sylvie ; Beaudoin, André ; Guindon, Luc</creator><creatorcontrib>Boulanger, Yan ; Girardin, Martin ; Bernier, Pierre Y ; Gauthier, Sylvie ; Beaudoin, André ; Guindon, Luc</creatorcontrib><description>Forest fire activity is projected to increase with climate change in Canada, but vegetation feedbacks are usually not considered. Using new information on the selectivity or avoidance of fire as a function of stand age and composition, we ran simple simulation models that consider the changes in the regional age matrices induced by fire and harvesting to project future burn rates. We also projected estimated future regional vulnerability of timber supply to fire by considering these new burn rates. The inclusion of age-related feedbacks would have a large impact on projected increases in burn rates, mostly in a very fire active zone under aggressive climate forcing. Projected burn rates would still increase, but would be 50% less in 2100 than if projected without this biotic feedback in some zones. Negative feedbacks would be virtually nonexistent when potential burning rates are below 1%, whereas realized burning rates would be lowered by more than a 0.5 percentage point when potential burning rates exceed 2.5%. Including fire–vegetation feedbacks had virtually no impact on total volume harvested. As fire burns more old-growth coniferous stands, slightly negative impacts were projected on conifer harvested almost everywhere. These results underline the need to incorporate fire–vegetation feedbacks when projecting future burn rates.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0045-5067</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1208-6037</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1139/cjfr-2016-0445</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Ottawa: NRC Research Press</publisher><subject>Age ; approvisionnement en bois ; Avoidance ; boreal forest ; Burning ; Burning rate ; Canada ; changement climatique ; Climate ; Climate change ; Computer simulation ; Conifers ; Environmental aspects ; Feedback ; feux de forêt ; fire–vegetation feedbacks ; Forecasts and trends ; Forest &amp; brush fires ; Forest fires ; Forests ; forêt boréale ; Harvesting ; Physiological aspects ; rétroactions entre le feu et la végétation ; Selectivity ; Simulation ; Studies ; Timber ; Timber supply ; Vegetation</subject><ispartof>Canadian journal of forest research, 2017-06, Vol.47 (6), p.755-764</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2017 NRC Research Press</rights><rights>Copyright Canadian Science Publishing NRC Research Press Jun 2017</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c582t-eb8a50e6457281d0e86739a4eb43108890c1361809f30c776fd06c4abae1f3173</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c582t-eb8a50e6457281d0e86739a4eb43108890c1361809f30c776fd06c4abae1f3173</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27924,27925</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Boulanger, Yan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Girardin, Martin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bernier, Pierre Y</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gauthier, Sylvie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Beaudoin, André</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Guindon, Luc</creatorcontrib><title>Changes in mean forest age in Canada’s forests could limit future increases in area burned but compromise potential harvestable conifer volumes</title><title>Canadian journal of forest research</title><description>Forest fire activity is projected to increase with climate change in Canada, but vegetation feedbacks are usually not considered. Using new information on the selectivity or avoidance of fire as a function of stand age and composition, we ran simple simulation models that consider the changes in the regional age matrices induced by fire and harvesting to project future burn rates. We also projected estimated future regional vulnerability of timber supply to fire by considering these new burn rates. The inclusion of age-related feedbacks would have a large impact on projected increases in burn rates, mostly in a very fire active zone under aggressive climate forcing. Projected burn rates would still increase, but would be 50% less in 2100 than if projected without this biotic feedback in some zones. Negative feedbacks would be virtually nonexistent when potential burning rates are below 1%, whereas realized burning rates would be lowered by more than a 0.5 percentage point when potential burning rates exceed 2.5%. Including fire–vegetation feedbacks had virtually no impact on total volume harvested. As fire burns more old-growth coniferous stands, slightly negative impacts were projected on conifer harvested almost everywhere. These results underline the need to incorporate fire–vegetation feedbacks when projecting future burn rates.</description><subject>Age</subject><subject>approvisionnement en bois</subject><subject>Avoidance</subject><subject>boreal forest</subject><subject>Burning</subject><subject>Burning rate</subject><subject>Canada</subject><subject>changement climatique</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Conifers</subject><subject>Environmental aspects</subject><subject>Feedback</subject><subject>feux de forêt</subject><subject>fire–vegetation feedbacks</subject><subject>Forecasts and trends</subject><subject>Forest &amp; brush fires</subject><subject>Forest fires</subject><subject>Forests</subject><subject>forêt boréale</subject><subject>Harvesting</subject><subject>Physiological aspects</subject><subject>rétroactions entre le feu et la végétation</subject><subject>Selectivity</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Timber</subject><subject>Timber supply</subject><subject>Vegetation</subject><issn>0045-5067</issn><issn>1208-6037</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2017</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqVks2KFDEUhQtRsB3dug660UWNN5X6SS2HZtSBQcGfdbiVuqlOU5XqSaoG3c0rzNLX80lM0Q3a0iCSRcLNdw4n4STJcw7nnIv6jd4an2bAyxTyvHiQrHgGMi1BVA-TFUBepAWU1ePkSQhbABClgFVyv96g6ygw69hA6JgZPYWJYUfLaI0OW_x59yMcLgLT49y3rLeDnZiZp9kvoPaEYe-C8cia2Ttq4zZFftj5cbCB2G6cyE0We7ZBfxvdsOkpAs4a8ux27OeBwtPkkcE-0LPDfpZ8fXv5Zf0-vf747mp9cZ3qQmZTSo3EAqjMiyqTvAWSZSVqzKnJBQcpa9BclFxCbQToqipNC6XOsUHiRvBKnCWv9r4x3c0cw6iYUVPfo6NxDorXEM0lz-qIvvwL3Y7xgTFdpARALYHDb6rDnpR1Zpw86sVUXeR1FT8fgEcqPUF15MhjPzoyNo6P-BcneL2zN-pP6PwEFFdLg9UnXV8fCSIz0bepwzkEdfX503-wH47ZQxDtxxA8GbXzdkD_XXFQS0vV0lK1tFQtLY0Cvhc4HzsUCL3e_EvzC7IP6Fg</recordid><startdate>20170601</startdate><enddate>20170601</enddate><creator>Boulanger, Yan</creator><creator>Girardin, Martin</creator><creator>Bernier, Pierre Y</creator><creator>Gauthier, Sylvie</creator><creator>Beaudoin, André</creator><creator>Guindon, Luc</creator><general>NRC Research Press</general><general>Canadian Science Publishing NRC Research Press</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>ISN</scope><scope>ISR</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>7T7</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>P64</scope><scope>RC3</scope><scope>U9A</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20170601</creationdate><title>Changes in mean forest age in Canada’s forests could limit future increases in area burned but compromise potential harvestable conifer volumes</title><author>Boulanger, Yan ; Girardin, Martin ; Bernier, Pierre Y ; Gauthier, Sylvie ; Beaudoin, André ; Guindon, Luc</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c582t-eb8a50e6457281d0e86739a4eb43108890c1361809f30c776fd06c4abae1f3173</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2017</creationdate><topic>Age</topic><topic>approvisionnement en bois</topic><topic>Avoidance</topic><topic>boreal forest</topic><topic>Burning</topic><topic>Burning rate</topic><topic>Canada</topic><topic>changement climatique</topic><topic>Climate</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Computer simulation</topic><topic>Conifers</topic><topic>Environmental aspects</topic><topic>Feedback</topic><topic>feux de forêt</topic><topic>fire–vegetation feedbacks</topic><topic>Forecasts and trends</topic><topic>Forest &amp; brush fires</topic><topic>Forest fires</topic><topic>Forests</topic><topic>forêt boréale</topic><topic>Harvesting</topic><topic>Physiological aspects</topic><topic>rétroactions entre le feu et la végétation</topic><topic>Selectivity</topic><topic>Simulation</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Timber</topic><topic>Timber supply</topic><topic>Vegetation</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Boulanger, Yan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Girardin, Martin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bernier, Pierre Y</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gauthier, Sylvie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Beaudoin, André</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Guindon, Luc</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Gale In Context: Canada</collection><collection>Gale In Context: Science</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Entomology Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Industrial and Applied Microbiology Abstracts (Microbiology A)</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Genetics Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Canadian journal of forest research</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Boulanger, Yan</au><au>Girardin, Martin</au><au>Bernier, Pierre Y</au><au>Gauthier, Sylvie</au><au>Beaudoin, André</au><au>Guindon, Luc</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Changes in mean forest age in Canada’s forests could limit future increases in area burned but compromise potential harvestable conifer volumes</atitle><jtitle>Canadian journal of forest research</jtitle><date>2017-06-01</date><risdate>2017</risdate><volume>47</volume><issue>6</issue><spage>755</spage><epage>764</epage><pages>755-764</pages><issn>0045-5067</issn><eissn>1208-6037</eissn><abstract>Forest fire activity is projected to increase with climate change in Canada, but vegetation feedbacks are usually not considered. Using new information on the selectivity or avoidance of fire as a function of stand age and composition, we ran simple simulation models that consider the changes in the regional age matrices induced by fire and harvesting to project future burn rates. We also projected estimated future regional vulnerability of timber supply to fire by considering these new burn rates. The inclusion of age-related feedbacks would have a large impact on projected increases in burn rates, mostly in a very fire active zone under aggressive climate forcing. Projected burn rates would still increase, but would be 50% less in 2100 than if projected without this biotic feedback in some zones. Negative feedbacks would be virtually nonexistent when potential burning rates are below 1%, whereas realized burning rates would be lowered by more than a 0.5 percentage point when potential burning rates exceed 2.5%. Including fire–vegetation feedbacks had virtually no impact on total volume harvested. As fire burns more old-growth coniferous stands, slightly negative impacts were projected on conifer harvested almost everywhere. These results underline the need to incorporate fire–vegetation feedbacks when projecting future burn rates.</abstract><cop>Ottawa</cop><pub>NRC Research Press</pub><doi>10.1139/cjfr-2016-0445</doi><tpages>10</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
fulltext fulltext
identifier ISSN: 0045-5067
ispartof Canadian journal of forest research, 2017-06, Vol.47 (6), p.755-764
issn 0045-5067
1208-6037
language eng
recordid cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_1906458129
source Alma/SFX Local Collection
subjects Age
approvisionnement en bois
Avoidance
boreal forest
Burning
Burning rate
Canada
changement climatique
Climate
Climate change
Computer simulation
Conifers
Environmental aspects
Feedback
feux de forêt
fire–vegetation feedbacks
Forecasts and trends
Forest & brush fires
Forest fires
Forests
forêt boréale
Harvesting
Physiological aspects
rétroactions entre le feu et la végétation
Selectivity
Simulation
Studies
Timber
Timber supply
Vegetation
title Changes in mean forest age in Canada’s forests could limit future increases in area burned but compromise potential harvestable conifer volumes
url https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-04T01%3A37%3A02IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-gale_proqu&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Changes%20in%20mean%20forest%20age%20in%20Canada%E2%80%99s%20forests%20could%20limit%20future%20increases%20in%20area%20burned%20but%20compromise%20potential%20harvestable%20conifer%20volumes&rft.jtitle=Canadian%20journal%20of%20forest%20research&rft.au=Boulanger,%20Yan&rft.date=2017-06-01&rft.volume=47&rft.issue=6&rft.spage=755&rft.epage=764&rft.pages=755-764&rft.issn=0045-5067&rft.eissn=1208-6037&rft_id=info:doi/10.1139/cjfr-2016-0445&rft_dat=%3Cgale_proqu%3EA497506001%3C/gale_proqu%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=1930098010&rft_id=info:pmid/&rft_galeid=A497506001&rfr_iscdi=true