Probability of surface fire spread in Brazilian rainforest fuels from outdoor experimental measurements
This paper describes the development of a logistic model to predict the probability of surface fire spread in Brazilian rainforest fuels from outdoor experimental measurements. Surface fires spread over litter composed mostly of dead leaves and twigs. There were 72 individual outdoor experiments in...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | European journal of forest research 2017-04, Vol.136 (2), p.217-232 |
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| container_title | European journal of forest research |
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| creator | Filho, Guenther Carlos Krieger Bufacchi, Paulo Santos, José Carlos Veras, Carlos Alberto Gurgel Alvarado, Ernesto C. Mell, William Carvalho, João Andrade |
| description | This paper describes the development of a logistic model to predict the probability of surface fire spread in Brazilian rainforest fuels from outdoor experimental measurements. Surface fires spread over litter composed mostly of dead leaves and twigs. There were 72 individual outdoor experiments in eighteen sites. The fire propagated in 49% of the experiments. In each experiment, the litter height, litter temperature, unburned litter mass, wet and dry litter mass, soil temperature, wet and dry soil mass, ambient wind velocity, ambient air temperature, ambient air relative humidity and duration of fire spread were measured. Using these data, the rate of fire spread, litter bulk density, litter and soil moisture content, litter load and litter residue fraction were determined. For the sake of analysis, experimental results were classified into two groups: one for which the fire propagated and the other one for which the fire self-extinguished. Analyses of a logistic regression model showed that the relevant parameters for fire propagation are litter height and litter moisture content. Concerning the probability of successful fire propagation, the model showed a true positive rate of 71% and a true negative rate of 84%. The outdoor experiments also served to gather data to improve the understanding of surface fires and to provide input data for future computer simulations. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10342-016-1023-2 |
| format | Article |
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Surface fires spread over litter composed mostly of dead leaves and twigs. There were 72 individual outdoor experiments in eighteen sites. The fire propagated in 49% of the experiments. In each experiment, the litter height, litter temperature, unburned litter mass, wet and dry litter mass, soil temperature, wet and dry soil mass, ambient wind velocity, ambient air temperature, ambient air relative humidity and duration of fire spread were measured. Using these data, the rate of fire spread, litter bulk density, litter and soil moisture content, litter load and litter residue fraction were determined. For the sake of analysis, experimental results were classified into two groups: one for which the fire propagated and the other one for which the fire self-extinguished. Analyses of a logistic regression model showed that the relevant parameters for fire propagation are litter height and litter moisture content. Concerning the probability of successful fire propagation, the model showed a true positive rate of 71% and a true negative rate of 84%. The outdoor experiments also served to gather data to improve the understanding of surface fires and to provide input data for future computer simulations.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1612-4669</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1612-4677</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10342-016-1023-2</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg</publisher><subject>Air temperature ; Ambient temperature ; Biomedical and Life Sciences ; Fires ; Forest & brush fires ; Forestry ; Fuels ; Life Sciences ; Litter ; Logistics ; Moisture content ; Original Paper ; Plant Ecology ; Plant Sciences ; Rainforests ; Regression analysis ; Relative humidity ; Soil moisture ; Soil temperature ; Wind speed</subject><ispartof>European journal of forest research, 2017-04, Vol.136 (2), p.217-232</ispartof><rights>Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017</rights><rights>European Journal of Forest Research is a copyright of Springer, 2017.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c462t-e5afb661e0a2f09dd769d43a04ca3dcc5cc8eacba324b539d6109a583f4b018d3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c462t-e5afb661e0a2f09dd769d43a04ca3dcc5cc8eacba324b539d6109a583f4b018d3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10342-016-1023-2$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10342-016-1023-2$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,777,781,27905,27906,41469,42538,51300</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Filho, Guenther Carlos Krieger</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bufacchi, Paulo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Santos, José Carlos</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Veras, Carlos Alberto Gurgel</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Alvarado, Ernesto C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mell, William</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Carvalho, João Andrade</creatorcontrib><title>Probability of surface fire spread in Brazilian rainforest fuels from outdoor experimental measurements</title><title>European journal of forest research</title><addtitle>Eur J Forest Res</addtitle><description>This paper describes the development of a logistic model to predict the probability of surface fire spread in Brazilian rainforest fuels from outdoor experimental measurements. Surface fires spread over litter composed mostly of dead leaves and twigs. There were 72 individual outdoor experiments in eighteen sites. The fire propagated in 49% of the experiments. In each experiment, the litter height, litter temperature, unburned litter mass, wet and dry litter mass, soil temperature, wet and dry soil mass, ambient wind velocity, ambient air temperature, ambient air relative humidity and duration of fire spread were measured. Using these data, the rate of fire spread, litter bulk density, litter and soil moisture content, litter load and litter residue fraction were determined. For the sake of analysis, experimental results were classified into two groups: one for which the fire propagated and the other one for which the fire self-extinguished. Analyses of a logistic regression model showed that the relevant parameters for fire propagation are litter height and litter moisture content. Concerning the probability of successful fire propagation, the model showed a true positive rate of 71% and a true negative rate of 84%. The outdoor experiments also served to gather data to improve the understanding of surface fires and to provide input data for future computer simulations.</description><subject>Air temperature</subject><subject>Ambient temperature</subject><subject>Biomedical and Life Sciences</subject><subject>Fires</subject><subject>Forest & brush fires</subject><subject>Forestry</subject><subject>Fuels</subject><subject>Life Sciences</subject><subject>Litter</subject><subject>Logistics</subject><subject>Moisture content</subject><subject>Original Paper</subject><subject>Plant Ecology</subject><subject>Plant Sciences</subject><subject>Rainforests</subject><subject>Regression analysis</subject><subject>Relative humidity</subject><subject>Soil moisture</subject><subject>Soil temperature</subject><subject>Wind speed</subject><issn>1612-4669</issn><issn>1612-4677</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2017</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>8G5</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kE1LxDAQhosouK7-AG8BL16q-WjT9KiLX7CgBz2HaTpZurRNTVpw_fVmqYgIniYDz_syeZLknNErRmlxHRgVGU8pkymjXKT8IFkwyXiayaI4_HnL8jg5CWFLKVelUotk8-JdBVXTNuOOOEvC5C0YJLbxSMLgEWrS9OTWw2dkoCcemt46j2EkdsI2EOtdR9w01s55gh8D-qbDfoSWdAixDvdbOE2OLLQBz77nMnm7v3tdPabr54en1c06NZnkY4o52EpKhhS4pWVdF7KsMwE0MyBqY3JjFIKpQPCsykVZS0ZLyJWwWUWZqsUyuZx7B-_ep3il7ppgsG2hRzcFzVTJlMopYxG9-INu3eT7eF2klOSxWdBIsZky3oXg0eohfhD8TjOq9-r1rF5H9XqvXvOY4XMmCmz6Dfpfzf-GvgCGnYh4</recordid><startdate>20170401</startdate><enddate>20170401</enddate><creator>Filho, Guenther Carlos Krieger</creator><creator>Bufacchi, Paulo</creator><creator>Santos, José Carlos</creator><creator>Veras, Carlos Alberto Gurgel</creator><creator>Alvarado, Ernesto C.</creator><creator>Mell, William</creator><creator>Carvalho, João Andrade</creator><general>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7X2</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8G5</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>GUQSH</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>M0K</scope><scope>M2O</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>MBDVC</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>SOI</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20170401</creationdate><title>Probability of surface fire spread in Brazilian rainforest fuels from outdoor experimental measurements</title><author>Filho, Guenther Carlos Krieger ; Bufacchi, Paulo ; Santos, José Carlos ; Veras, Carlos Alberto Gurgel ; Alvarado, Ernesto C. ; Mell, William ; Carvalho, João Andrade</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c462t-e5afb661e0a2f09dd769d43a04ca3dcc5cc8eacba324b539d6109a583f4b018d3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2017</creationdate><topic>Air temperature</topic><topic>Ambient temperature</topic><topic>Biomedical and Life Sciences</topic><topic>Fires</topic><topic>Forest & brush fires</topic><topic>Forestry</topic><topic>Fuels</topic><topic>Life Sciences</topic><topic>Litter</topic><topic>Logistics</topic><topic>Moisture content</topic><topic>Original Paper</topic><topic>Plant Ecology</topic><topic>Plant Sciences</topic><topic>Rainforests</topic><topic>Regression analysis</topic><topic>Relative humidity</topic><topic>Soil moisture</topic><topic>Soil temperature</topic><topic>Wind speed</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Filho, Guenther Carlos Krieger</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bufacchi, Paulo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Santos, José Carlos</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Veras, Carlos Alberto Gurgel</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Alvarado, Ernesto C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mell, William</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Carvalho, João Andrade</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Agricultural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Research Library (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Research Library Prep</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>Agricultural Science Database</collection><collection>Research Library</collection><collection>Science Database</collection><collection>Research Library (Corporate)</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><jtitle>European journal of forest research</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Filho, Guenther Carlos Krieger</au><au>Bufacchi, Paulo</au><au>Santos, José Carlos</au><au>Veras, Carlos Alberto Gurgel</au><au>Alvarado, Ernesto C.</au><au>Mell, William</au><au>Carvalho, João Andrade</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Probability of surface fire spread in Brazilian rainforest fuels from outdoor experimental measurements</atitle><jtitle>European journal of forest research</jtitle><stitle>Eur J Forest Res</stitle><date>2017-04-01</date><risdate>2017</risdate><volume>136</volume><issue>2</issue><spage>217</spage><epage>232</epage><pages>217-232</pages><issn>1612-4669</issn><eissn>1612-4677</eissn><abstract>This paper describes the development of a logistic model to predict the probability of surface fire spread in Brazilian rainforest fuels from outdoor experimental measurements. Surface fires spread over litter composed mostly of dead leaves and twigs. There were 72 individual outdoor experiments in eighteen sites. The fire propagated in 49% of the experiments. In each experiment, the litter height, litter temperature, unburned litter mass, wet and dry litter mass, soil temperature, wet and dry soil mass, ambient wind velocity, ambient air temperature, ambient air relative humidity and duration of fire spread were measured. Using these data, the rate of fire spread, litter bulk density, litter and soil moisture content, litter load and litter residue fraction were determined. For the sake of analysis, experimental results were classified into two groups: one for which the fire propagated and the other one for which the fire self-extinguished. Analyses of a logistic regression model showed that the relevant parameters for fire propagation are litter height and litter moisture content. Concerning the probability of successful fire propagation, the model showed a true positive rate of 71% and a true negative rate of 84%. The outdoor experiments also served to gather data to improve the understanding of surface fires and to provide input data for future computer simulations.</abstract><cop>Berlin/Heidelberg</cop><pub>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</pub><doi>10.1007/s10342-016-1023-2</doi><tpages>16</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Air temperature Ambient temperature Biomedical and Life Sciences Fires Forest & brush fires Forestry Fuels Life Sciences Litter Logistics Moisture content Original Paper Plant Ecology Plant Sciences Rainforests Regression analysis Relative humidity Soil moisture Soil temperature Wind speed |
| title | Probability of surface fire spread in Brazilian rainforest fuels from outdoor experimental measurements |
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