HOW PREDICTABLE IS EL NIÑO?

Nobody anticipated that El Niño would be weak and prolonged in 1992, but brief and intense in 1997/98. Why are various El Niño episodes so different, and so difficult to predict? The answer involves the important role played by random atmospheric disturbances (such as westerly wind bursts) in sustai...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2003-07, Vol.84 (7), p.911-919
Hauptverfasser:	Fedorov, A. V., Harper, S. L., Philander, S. G., Winter, B., Wittenberg, A.
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Analytical forecasting Atmosphere Atmospherics Climate cycles Climate models Earth, ocean, space El Nino Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Marine Meteorology Modeling Ocean currents Physics of the oceans Predictability Quadrants Sea-air exchange processes Southern Oscillation Stochastic models Weather Weather analysis and prediction
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