Analog Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Australian Region

Analog Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Australian Region

Tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian basin are predicted by an analog ensemble forecast model. It is self-adapting in its search of optimal ensemble members from historic cyclone tracks by creating a metric that minimizes the error of the ensemble mean forecast. When compared with the climatolo...

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Veröffentlicht in:Weather and forecasting 2003-02, Vol.18 (1), p.3-11
Hauptverfasser: Fraedrich, K, Raible, C C, Sielmann, F
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creator Fraedrich, K
Raible, C C
Sielmann, F
description Tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian basin are predicted by an analog ensemble forecast model. It is self-adapting in its search of optimal ensemble members from historic cyclone tracks by creating a metric that minimizes the error of the ensemble mean forecast. When compared with the climatology-persistence reference model, the adapted analog forecasts achieve great-circle errors that improve the reference model by 15%-20%. Ensemble mean forecast errors grow almost linearly with ensemble spread.
doi_str_mv 10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018(0003:AEFOTC)2.0.CO;2
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title Analog Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Australian Region
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