Modelling spatio-temporal distribution of red mullet (Mullus barbatus L., 1758), İzmir Bay

In this study, the relationship between the environmental factors, fishing pressure and abundance of red mullet spatio-temporal distribution in the Izmir Bay (Turkey) was aimed to be determined. This study characterizes the interactions that control the short term spatio-temporal variability in the red mullet distribution process in terms of abundance. The distribution and relative abundance of the red mullet including the influence of environmental factors and fishing pressure were analyzed using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and a Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach to investigate relationships. The results obtained from the model estimates and evaluations provide an important information about local fisheries management. As a result of the work, it has been concluded that the lower abundance of the red mullet is associated with cold and saline bottom waters, especially in deeper areas of the Izmir Bay. Additionally, the stock is considered to be heavily exploited and the fishing pressure on the species is considerable throughout the deeper area of the Izmir Bay where bottom trawling is allowed. In conclusion, the prediction model indicates a large abundance of species in the Gulbahce Bay and vicinity corresponding roughly to the observed data. Temporally, the species was found to be more abundant in winter and autumn, mainly in December.