Amphibian breeding phenology trends under climate change: predicting the past to forecast the future

Global climate warming is predicted to hasten the onset of spring breeding by anuran amphibians in seasonal environments. Previous data had indicated that the breeding phenology of a population of Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) at their northern range limit had been progressively later in sp...

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Veröffentlicht in:Global change biology 2017-02, Vol.23 (2), p.646-656
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description Global climate warming is predicted to hasten the onset of spring breeding by anuran amphibians in seasonal environments. Previous data had indicated that the breeding phenology of a population of Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) at their northern range limit had been progressively later in spring, contrary to generally observed trends in other species. Although these animals are known to respond to environmental temperature and the lunar cycle to commence breeding, the timing of breeding should also be influenced by the onset of overwintering animals’ prior upward movement through the soil column from beneath the frost line as winter becomes spring. I used recorded weather data to identify four factors of temperature, rainfall and snowfall in late winter and early spring that correlated with the toads’ eventual date of emergence aboveground. Estimated dates of spring emergence of the toads calculated using a predictive model based on these factors, as well as the illumination of the moon, were highly correlated with observed dates of emergence over 24 consecutive years. Using the model to estimate of past dates of spring breeding (i.e. retrodiction) indicated that even three decades of data were insufficient to discern any appreciable phenological trend in these toads. However, by employing weather data dating back to 1876, I detected a significant trend over 140 years towards earlier spring emergence by the toads by less than half a day/decade, while, over the same period of time, average annual air temperature and annual precipitation had both increased. Changes in the springtime breeding phenology for late‐breeding species, such as Fowler's Toads, therefore may conform to expectations of earlier breeding under global warming. Improved understanding of the environmental cues that bring organisms out of winter dormancy will enable better interpretation of long‐term phenological trends.
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Previous data had indicated that the breeding phenology of a population of Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) at their northern range limit had been progressively later in spring, contrary to generally observed trends in other species. Although these animals are known to respond to environmental temperature and the lunar cycle to commence breeding, the timing of breeding should also be influenced by the onset of overwintering animals’ prior upward movement through the soil column from beneath the frost line as winter becomes spring. I used recorded weather data to identify four factors of temperature, rainfall and snowfall in late winter and early spring that correlated with the toads’ eventual date of emergence aboveground. Estimated dates of spring emergence of the toads calculated using a predictive model based on these factors, as well as the illumination of the moon, were highly correlated with observed dates of emergence over 24 consecutive years. Using the model to estimate of past dates of spring breeding (i.e. retrodiction) indicated that even three decades of data were insufficient to discern any appreciable phenological trend in these toads. However, by employing weather data dating back to 1876, I detected a significant trend over 140 years towards earlier spring emergence by the toads by less than half a day/decade, while, over the same period of time, average annual air temperature and annual precipitation had both increased. Changes in the springtime breeding phenology for late‐breeding species, such as Fowler's Toads, therefore may conform to expectations of earlier breeding under global warming. 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Previous data had indicated that the breeding phenology of a population of Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) at their northern range limit had been progressively later in spring, contrary to generally observed trends in other species. Although these animals are known to respond to environmental temperature and the lunar cycle to commence breeding, the timing of breeding should also be influenced by the onset of overwintering animals’ prior upward movement through the soil column from beneath the frost line as winter becomes spring. I used recorded weather data to identify four factors of temperature, rainfall and snowfall in late winter and early spring that correlated with the toads’ eventual date of emergence aboveground. Estimated dates of spring emergence of the toads calculated using a predictive model based on these factors, as well as the illumination of the moon, were highly correlated with observed dates of emergence over 24 consecutive years. Using the model to estimate of past dates of spring breeding (i.e. retrodiction) indicated that even three decades of data were insufficient to discern any appreciable phenological trend in these toads. However, by employing weather data dating back to 1876, I detected a significant trend over 140 years towards earlier spring emergence by the toads by less than half a day/decade, while, over the same period of time, average annual air temperature and annual precipitation had both increased. Changes in the springtime breeding phenology for late‐breeding species, such as Fowler's Toads, therefore may conform to expectations of earlier breeding under global warming. Improved understanding of the environmental cues that bring organisms out of winter dormancy will enable better interpretation of long‐term phenological trends.</description><subject>Amphibia</subject><subject>Anaxyrus fowleri</subject><subject>Animal reproduction</subject><subject>Animals</subject><subject>Anura</subject><subject>Breeding</subject><subject>Bufonidae</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate Change</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Fowler's Toad</subject><subject>global warming</subject><subject>long‐term study</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Paleoclimate science</subject><subject>Phenology</subject><subject>Reptiles &amp; amphibians</subject><subject>Seasons</subject><subject>spring emergence</subject><subject>Temperature</subject><issn>1354-1013</issn><issn>1365-2486</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2017</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNqN0U1LwzAcBvAgitPpwS8gAS966JaXNk29zaFTGHjRc0mTf7aOrq1Ji-zbm73oQRAMgYTwywPJg9AVJSMaxnihixHlPCNH6IxykUQsluJ4u0_iiBLKB-jc-xUhhDMiTtGApSzlnJAzZCbrdlkWpapx4QBMWS9wu4S6qZrFBncOauNxXxtwWFflWnWA9VLVC7jHrQtcd9sb3RJwq3yHuwbbxoHe7cOh7bvewQU6sarycHlYh-j96fFt-hzNX2cv08k80lwKEglexFqrLEuSmBvLE50ZGos0tspKZqgpUh1bwxgUjGbKgKBScyWUVim1ivAhut3ntq756MF3-br0GqpK1dD0PqdSSE5TSf5DmRCZlBkN9OYXXTW9q8NDgkok4TEPc4ju9kq7xnsHNm9d-C-3ySnJty3loaV811Kw14fEvliD-ZHftQQw3oPPsoLN30n5bPqwj_wCnpWbfw</recordid><startdate>201702</startdate><enddate>201702</enddate><creator>Green, David M.</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>H97</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>201702</creationdate><title>Amphibian breeding phenology trends under climate change: predicting the past to forecast the future</title><author>Green, David M.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c3860-63b4cca995543df35c9d14674faf82d1db7c4fd22eb219ade618c3a6aca71fa03</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2017</creationdate><topic>Amphibia</topic><topic>Anaxyrus fowleri</topic><topic>Animal reproduction</topic><topic>Animals</topic><topic>Anura</topic><topic>Breeding</topic><topic>Bufonidae</topic><topic>Climate</topic><topic>Climate Change</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Fowler's Toad</topic><topic>global warming</topic><topic>long‐term study</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Paleoclimate science</topic><topic>Phenology</topic><topic>Reptiles &amp; amphibians</topic><topic>Seasons</topic><topic>spring emergence</topic><topic>Temperature</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Green, David M.</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science &amp; Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 3: Aquatic Pollution &amp; Environmental Quality</collection><collection>Aquatic Science &amp; Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Global change biology</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Green, David M.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Amphibian breeding phenology trends under climate change: predicting the past to forecast the future</atitle><jtitle>Global change biology</jtitle><addtitle>Glob Chang Biol</addtitle><date>2017-02</date><risdate>2017</risdate><volume>23</volume><issue>2</issue><spage>646</spage><epage>656</epage><pages>646-656</pages><issn>1354-1013</issn><eissn>1365-2486</eissn><abstract>Global climate warming is predicted to hasten the onset of spring breeding by anuran amphibians in seasonal environments. Previous data had indicated that the breeding phenology of a population of Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) at their northern range limit had been progressively later in spring, contrary to generally observed trends in other species. Although these animals are known to respond to environmental temperature and the lunar cycle to commence breeding, the timing of breeding should also be influenced by the onset of overwintering animals’ prior upward movement through the soil column from beneath the frost line as winter becomes spring. I used recorded weather data to identify four factors of temperature, rainfall and snowfall in late winter and early spring that correlated with the toads’ eventual date of emergence aboveground. Estimated dates of spring emergence of the toads calculated using a predictive model based on these factors, as well as the illumination of the moon, were highly correlated with observed dates of emergence over 24 consecutive years. 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subjects Amphibia
Anaxyrus fowleri
Animal reproduction
Animals
Anura
Breeding
Bufonidae
Climate
Climate Change
Female
Fowler's Toad
global warming
long‐term study
Male
Paleoclimate science
Phenology
Reptiles & amphibians
Seasons
spring emergence
Temperature
title Amphibian breeding phenology trends under climate change: predicting the past to forecast the future
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