Sensitivity of the projected hydroclimatic environment of the Delaware River basin to formulation of potential evapotranspiration
The Delaware River Basin (DRB) encompasses approximately 0.4 % of the area of the United States (U.S.), but supplies water to 5 % of the population. We studied three forested tributaries to quantify the potential climate-driven change in hydrologic budget for two 25-year time periods centered on 203...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Climatic change 2016-11, Vol.139 (2), p.215-228 |
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| description | The Delaware River Basin (DRB) encompasses approximately 0.4 % of the area of the United States (U.S.), but supplies water to 5 % of the population. We studied three forested tributaries to quantify the potential climate-driven change in hydrologic budget for two 25-year time periods centered on 2030 and 2060, focusing on sensitivity to the method of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) change. Hydrology was simulated using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (Williamson et al.
2015
). Climate-change scenarios for four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to derive monthly change factors for temperature (T), precipitation (PPT), and PET according to the energy-based method of Priestley and Taylor (
1972
). Hydrologic simulations indicate a general increase in annual (especially winter) streamflow (Q) as early as 2030 across the DRB, with a larger increase by 2060. This increase in Q is the result of (1) higher winter PPT, which outweighs an annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) increase and (2) (for winter) a major shift away from storage of PPT as snow pack. However, when PET change is evaluated instead using the simpler T-based method of Hamon (
1963
), the increases in Q are small or even negative. In fact, the change of Q depends as much on PET method as on time period or RCP. This large sensitivity and associated uncertainty underscore the importance of exercising caution in the selection of a PET method for use in climate-change analyses. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10584-016-1782-2 |
| format | Article |
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2015
). Climate-change scenarios for four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to derive monthly change factors for temperature (T), precipitation (PPT), and PET according to the energy-based method of Priestley and Taylor (
1972
). Hydrologic simulations indicate a general increase in annual (especially winter) streamflow (Q) as early as 2030 across the DRB, with a larger increase by 2060. This increase in Q is the result of (1) higher winter PPT, which outweighs an annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) increase and (2) (for winter) a major shift away from storage of PPT as snow pack. However, when PET change is evaluated instead using the simpler T-based method of Hamon (
1963
), the increases in Q are small or even negative. In fact, the change of Q depends as much on PET method as on time period or RCP. This large sensitivity and associated uncertainty underscore the importance of exercising caution in the selection of a PET method for use in climate-change analyses.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0165-0009</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1573-1480</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1782-2</identifier><identifier>CODEN: CLCHDX</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands</publisher><subject>Atmospheric Sciences ; Climate ; Climate change ; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts ; Climate models ; Computer simulation ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Estimating ; Evapotranspiration ; Freshwater ; Geology ; Global climate ; Hydrology ; Mathematical models ; Precipitation ; Radiation ; River basins ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Sensitivity ; Simulation ; Snowpack ; Stream discharge ; Stream flow ; Trends ; Water ; Water availability ; Wetlands ; Winter</subject><ispartof>Climatic change, 2016-11, Vol.139 (2), p.215-228</ispartof><rights>Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht (outside the USA) 2016</rights><rights>Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c382t-797b9795dec5608ab14a190fb42495f98963b2f4a7a9d978379c1bee5b59ab5d3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c382t-797b9795dec5608ab14a190fb42495f98963b2f4a7a9d978379c1bee5b59ab5d3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-016-1782-2$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1782-2$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27901,27902,41464,42533,51294</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Williamson, Tanja N.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nystrom, Elizabeth A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Milly, Paul C. D.</creatorcontrib><title>Sensitivity of the projected hydroclimatic environment of the Delaware River basin to formulation of potential evapotranspiration</title><title>Climatic change</title><addtitle>Climatic Change</addtitle><description>The Delaware River Basin (DRB) encompasses approximately 0.4 % of the area of the United States (U.S.), but supplies water to 5 % of the population. We studied three forested tributaries to quantify the potential climate-driven change in hydrologic budget for two 25-year time periods centered on 2030 and 2060, focusing on sensitivity to the method of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) change. Hydrology was simulated using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (Williamson et al.
2015
). Climate-change scenarios for four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to derive monthly change factors for temperature (T), precipitation (PPT), and PET according to the energy-based method of Priestley and Taylor (
1972
). Hydrologic simulations indicate a general increase in annual (especially winter) streamflow (Q) as early as 2030 across the DRB, with a larger increase by 2060. This increase in Q is the result of (1) higher winter PPT, which outweighs an annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) increase and (2) (for winter) a major shift away from storage of PPT as snow pack. However, when PET change is evaluated instead using the simpler T-based method of Hamon (
1963
), the increases in Q are small or even negative. In fact, the change of Q depends as much on PET method as on time period or RCP. This large sensitivity and associated uncertainty underscore the importance of exercising caution in the selection of a PET method for use in climate-change analyses.</description><subject>Atmospheric Sciences</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Estimating</subject><subject>Evapotranspiration</subject><subject>Freshwater</subject><subject>Geology</subject><subject>Global climate</subject><subject>Hydrology</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Precipitation</subject><subject>Radiation</subject><subject>River basins</subject><subject>Rivers</subject><subject>Seasons</subject><subject>Sensitivity</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Snowpack</subject><subject>Stream discharge</subject><subject>Stream flow</subject><subject>Trends</subject><subject>Water</subject><subject>Water availability</subject><subject>Wetlands</subject><subject>Winter</subject><issn>0165-0009</issn><issn>1573-1480</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2016</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>8G5</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNqNkc1qGzEUhUVIoK7TB-hOkE03k-h3NFoW9ycBQyBN10IzcyeWGUuuJDt42TePJk6gBApZSeJ-58DVh9BnSi4pIeoqUSIbURFaV1Q1rGInaEal4hUVDTlFszKQFSFEf0AfU1pPN8XqGfr7C3xy2e1dPuAw4LwCvI1hDV2GHq8OfQzd6DY2uw6D37sY_AZ8fkW_wWgfbQR85_YQcWuT8zgHPIS42Y0lFfyEbkMuIWdHDHtbHtH6tHXxeX6OzgY7Jvj0cs7R7x_f7xfX1fL2583i67LqeMNypbRqtdKyh07WpLEtFZZqMrSCCS0H3eiat2wQVlnda9VwpTvaAshWatvKns_Rl2NvWe_PDlI2G5c6GEfrIeySoU0tJOeciXegohZE15IV9OINug676MsiheKKEFrEFIoeqS6GlCIMZhvLp8aDocRM_szRnymazOTPTM3smEmF9Q8Q_2n-b-gJTNSfnQ</recordid><startdate>20161101</startdate><enddate>20161101</enddate><creator>Williamson, Tanja N.</creator><creator>Nystrom, Elizabeth A.</creator><creator>Milly, Paul C. 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D.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Sensitivity of the projected hydroclimatic environment of the Delaware River basin to formulation of potential evapotranspiration</atitle><jtitle>Climatic change</jtitle><stitle>Climatic Change</stitle><date>2016-11-01</date><risdate>2016</risdate><volume>139</volume><issue>2</issue><spage>215</spage><epage>228</epage><pages>215-228</pages><issn>0165-0009</issn><eissn>1573-1480</eissn><coden>CLCHDX</coden><abstract>The Delaware River Basin (DRB) encompasses approximately 0.4 % of the area of the United States (U.S.), but supplies water to 5 % of the population. We studied three forested tributaries to quantify the potential climate-driven change in hydrologic budget for two 25-year time periods centered on 2030 and 2060, focusing on sensitivity to the method of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) change. Hydrology was simulated using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (Williamson et al.
2015
). Climate-change scenarios for four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to derive monthly change factors for temperature (T), precipitation (PPT), and PET according to the energy-based method of Priestley and Taylor (
1972
). Hydrologic simulations indicate a general increase in annual (especially winter) streamflow (Q) as early as 2030 across the DRB, with a larger increase by 2060. This increase in Q is the result of (1) higher winter PPT, which outweighs an annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) increase and (2) (for winter) a major shift away from storage of PPT as snow pack. However, when PET change is evaluated instead using the simpler T-based method of Hamon (
1963
), the increases in Q are small or even negative. In fact, the change of Q depends as much on PET method as on time period or RCP. This large sensitivity and associated uncertainty underscore the importance of exercising caution in the selection of a PET method for use in climate-change analyses.</abstract><cop>Dordrecht</cop><pub>Springer Netherlands</pub><doi>10.1007/s10584-016-1782-2</doi><tpages>14</tpages></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Atmospheric Sciences Climate Climate change Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Climate models Computer simulation Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Estimating Evapotranspiration Freshwater Geology Global climate Hydrology Mathematical models Precipitation Radiation River basins Rivers Seasons Sensitivity Simulation Snowpack Stream discharge Stream flow Trends Water Water availability Wetlands Winter |
| title | Sensitivity of the projected hydroclimatic environment of the Delaware River basin to formulation of potential evapotranspiration |
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