The Effect of Economic Growth, Urbanization, and Industrialization on Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Concentrations in China

Rapid economic growth, industrialization, and urbanization in China have led to extremely severe air pollution that causes increasing negative effects on human health, visibility, and climate change. However, the influence mechanisms of these anthropogenic factors on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations are poorly understood. In this study, we combined panel data and econometric methods to investigate the main anthropogenic factors that contribute to increasing PM2.5 concentrations in China at the prefecture level from 1999 to 2011. The results showed that PM2.5 concentrations and three anthropogenic factors were cointegrated. The panel Fully Modified Least Squares and panel Granger causality test results indicated that economic growth, industrialization, and urbanization increased PM2.5 concentrations in the long run. The results implied that if China persists in its current development pattern, economic growth, industrialization and urbanization will inevitably lead to increased PM2.5 emissions in the long term. Industrialization was the principal factor that affected PM2.5 concentrations for the total panel, the industry-oriented panel and the service-oriented panel. PM2.5 concentrations can be reduced at the cost of short-term economic growth and industrialization. However, reducing the urbanization level is not an efficient way to decrease PM2.5 pollutions in the short term. The findings also suggest that a rapid reduction of PM2.5 concentrations relying solely on adjusting these anthropogenic factors is difficult in a short-term for the heavily PM2.5-polluted panel. Moreover, the Chinese government will have to seek much broader policies that favor a decoupling of these coupling relationships.